There is a story in the third episode of the American TV series "Silicon Valley" in the first season, which makes people like me who eat melons very eye-opening:
The founder of a startup company went to talk with investor Peter about capital injection, hoping to inject the promised $6.5438+0.5 million urgently, and stressed the importance of this fund, because their factory had problems, and if the funds were not in place, the company would close down immediately.
Then, Peter didn't give any answer, but said slowly, "Have you ever eaten Burger King?" The two founders were immediately forced.
He said that he drove by and saw a burger king shop, which was very popular. Then, Peter asked his assistant to go to the nearby Burger King to buy a variety of food there.
In this way, the two founders were rejected, and Peter himself studied a table of hamburgers in the office. From the names of all kinds of hamburgers to sesame seeds on the packaging, he seems extremely serious.
But it looks more like a secret trick of God's unwillingness to give money.
After a while, people outside got impatient and rushed into the office, demanding a definite answer from Peter.
Then, he said, "Myanmar, Brazil and Indonesia, two of the three countries that supply sesame seeds in the world have a large number of cicadas." Don't you think it's a coincidence? "
People come for money, but you are talking about agricultural production. This kind of change of topic without technical content makes the scene very embarrassing.
He continued: "The cicada disaster in Myanmar occurs once every 13 years, and the cicada disaster in Brazil occurs once every 17 years. The cicada disasters in the two countries will coincide next year, and this phenomenon only happens once every 22 1 year. The crops in these two countries will be greatly damaged. "
The atmosphere at the scene continued to be embarrassing.
He began to explain that unlike Myanmar and Brazil, there was no cicada disaster in Indonesia, and at the same time he saw that the price of sesame futures in Indonesia was very low. So I bought a batch of futures. If the shortage causes the global price to rise, even if it is only 10%, there will be a profit of 68 million.
He looked at the two founders. "I can allocate150,000 from them to make bridge loan for you."
The two founders were ecstatic and relieved.
Then, everyone is happy, and everyone eats burger king together.
Seeing this exaggerated plot, I suddenly admired it That's it, looking at a bunch of hamburgers, you made 68 million? My first reaction was admiration. Am I too young and naive?
But combing Peter's thought, we will find that it is not only exaggerated and interesting, but also well-founded, convincing and inspiring.
Let's sort out his thinking process first:
In this process, insight and observation are fully reflected. However, the biggest feature is the mining of explicit information.
For the time being, I will call the obvious information that everyone knows as explicit information.
If I go to McDonald's and see so many people, I really won't have any thoughts, because isn't this normal? Too common to turn a blind eye.
When I had a hamburger in my hand, my first reaction was, alas, this is a big MAC. Why is it so small? Bad reviews. Who else saw sesame seeds on it? Take an extra packet of ketchup. It's free anyway.
On second thought, what is the difference between my association and Peter's association?
The biggest advantage of logic-based reasoning is "directionality", which allows you to explore the relationship between social operation and then make predictions about what will happen, and it is well-founded.
So what I learned (1) is not to turn a blind eye to explicit information, (2) association should be based on logical reasoning.
If I pay attention to explicit information and make logical reasoning, can I introduce sesame futures price increase from Hamburg? Of course I can't.
Even if I can think that the sale of hamburgers will boost the demand for sesame seeds, how do I know that the main producers of sesame seeds are Myanmar, Indonesia and Brazil?
How do I know that there are cicada disasters in Indonesia and Brazil?
How do I know the frequency of cicada disasters in these two countries?
How do I know when cicada disasters will occur in these two countries at the same time?
How do I know the price of Myanmar sesame futures?
It can be seen that Peter's way of thinking is just a means, and what makes this way work is the great knowledge behind it. In the process of his thinking, he at least involved knowledge in the fields of economy, agriculture, biology, mathematics and geography.
Behind this extensive knowledge accumulation is a person's efforts and struggle. It is a person's serious attitude towards knowledge.
I have regretted many times that I didn't study mathematics, physics, history and geography seriously in middle school, but this is the most regrettable time. I missed 68 million dollars!
I'm sorry, I'm too involved. However, it is true that knowledge is "useless". So I learned to increase my knowledge accumulation and build my own knowledge system.
Don't turn a blind eye to explicit information, make associations based on logical reasoning, and constantly increase your knowledge accumulation. These three points are actually explicit information. Don't many people know these three truths? But how many people did it? But this is just another example that is too obvious to ignore.
From a hamburger to $68 million, on the surface, it is a slightly exaggerated drama of getting rich, but after understanding its process, we know that it is actually a thought-provoking good story.