With the recent recovery of the stock market, investors in the bond market are experiencing the biggest test this year. The data shows that in June 165438+1October16, 10, the yield of three-year treasury bonds rose to 2.86%, the yield of three-year treasury bonds rose to 2.49%, and the main contract of 10 treasury bonds futures fell by 0.27%. So far, the bond market has fallen for five consecutive trading days.
The recent adjustment of the bond market is mainly affected by factors such as liquidity convergence, optimization of epidemic prevention and control, and real estate support policies. As the market continues to decline, the net value of bond funds has generally retreated recently, and the net value of bank wealth management products has also ushered in a new round of "breaking the net tide".
Debt base that has been "criticized"
Since this week, the bond market has been greatly adjusted. 10-year bond yields rose 12bp to 2.86%, 3-year bond yields rose 12bp to 2.49%, 15bp to 2. 12%. The interest rate of interbank deposit certificates of various maturities generally rose15bp-20bp; Bank perpetual and tier 2 capital bonds generally rose by 20bp-25bp.
"Recently, everyone's products have not performed very well, and my products have also been hit hard, and the net value has been relatively large." In an interview with the Securities Times, the manager of a private placement bond fund with a100000000000000 said that recently, many products of the company have retreated more than 0. 15% in one day, which is very serious for many bond funds with an annualized rate of return of only about 5%.
The data shows that bond funds have generally fallen recently. 165438+1October 14, the average decline of medium and long-term pure debt funds in the whole market reached 0.29%. 165438+ 10 month 15, the data is 0.09%.
The drastic fluctuations in the bond market are behind the overall changes in market macro-economy and liquidity expectations.
"The interest rate of the previous national debt has been at a historically low level, and the bond market has been passivated against the bullish factors. Two months later, the capital price slowly fell, the liquidity margin converged, and the bond market faced the pressure of callback. The introduction of policies such as "20 Articles" and "Financial 16 Articles" to optimize epidemic prevention and control has significantly improved the market's expectations for the future of the economy. The bond market has undergone drastic adjustments under the influence of multiple factors, and the bond interest rate has risen by more than 10 BP in a single day. " Li Xifeng, a researcher at CSI Pengyuan R&D Department, told the Securities Times reporter.
Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, also expressed a similar view. He told the Securities Times reporter that the bond market has overdrawn the expectation of economic recession and economic downturn. However, the recent introduction of a series of more active policies has gradually improved the market's expectations for the future economy and repaired the market risk appetite.
In terms of liquidity, frankly speaking, the market is also betting that the central bank will continue to cut interest rates and reduce RRR. However, the recent operation of the central bank is very stable, which leads to the market's expectation of cutting interest rates and reducing RRR.
The recent operation of the central bank also confirms some judgments of the market on liquidity. 1 65438+1October15th, the central bank conducted an MLF operation of 850 billion yuan1year and a 7-day open market reverse repurchase operation of 172 billion yuan, with the winning interest rates of 2.75% and 2.0% respectively. This month, the MLF expires 1000 billion yuan, the central bank continues to work for 850 billion yuan, and the MLF net returns150 billion yuan.
"The MLF operation of the central bank is very stable, basically a continuation of the same amount. Although MLF has contracted, it has released sufficient liquidity to the market through PSL and various special refinancing tools. However, the bond market has been hoping that the central bank can reduce RRR or even cut interest rates as soon as possible. Now the expectation of reducing RRR and cutting interest rates has failed, which has also led to the adjustment of the bond market. " Clearly said.
Financial management facing great redemption pressure
Undoubtedly, the fluctuation of the bond market has dragged down the bank financing with bond assets as the main allocation. The sharp decline in the bond market has led to a decline in the net asset value of some bonds with product allocation. Even if part of the equity is struggling, it still cannot offset the withdrawal of the net asset value. Following the March 1200 product "breaking the net" tide, bank wealth management has fallen into a new round of "breaking the net" tide in the past two days. The data shows that as of June 165438+ 10/5, the net value of 1776 products of 34364 banks (issuers include banks and wealth management companies) in the whole market fell below 1.
The sharp fluctuation of net value caused investors to panic, and many investors concentrated on redeeming products. The cash wealth management product of a joint-stock bank wealth management company, "Live Money Manager", has touched the huge redemption limit because of too many customers.
"The instability of the front end of financial management, that is, the debt side, is once again exposed. This is a problem that banks must face in the process of net wealth management. " A Public Offering of Fund executive commented. He told reporters that many fund companies have encountered different levels of financial redemption, but the overall situation is controllable.
Wang Jian, a team analyst at Guo Xin Securities Bank, believes that the scale of wealth management has increased a lot since last year, from 26 trillion at the end of June last year to 29 trillion this year, which should be bought by many customers with low risk appetite. Due to the lack of education for investors, many investors still buy with the thinking of just redeeming in the past, and can't accept the fluctuation of net worth and start redeeming. "Redemption leads to bond selling, the bond market continues to fall, a vicious circle, and even trampling." Wang Jian said. He predicted that "it will take a few days to stop" and the fundamental solution of investor education may take time.
Liao Zhiming, chief analyst of China Merchants Securities Banking, also noticed that wealth management is under the pressure of customer redemption. He said that investors should stick to the optimistic side: the higher the coupon rate, the better the predictable rate of return on future financial management. Don't redeem it at this time, you should consider buying in large quantities.
"Financial management is under the pressure of customer redemption-financial redemption outsourcing and fund outsourcing managers sell bonds. Financial management is negative feedback, and the bond market has fallen a bit. The higher the coupon, the better the product. Steady, squatting, hope is in sight. " Liao Zhiming said.
The fixed income analyst of Guoyuan Securities pointed out that at present, the redemption of generalized funds such as bank wealth management has appeared, and the impact is mainly concentrated in the short-term debt and credit bond markets. Whether to further ferment still needs attention. According to the data of foreign exchange trading center, the main net selling institutions in the market in the past half week are still non-bank institutions such as brokers and funds, and the financial positions of banks have not changed much. Self-operated banks are mainly net buyers, indicating that the market is still in the stage of "transaction expectation" of active institutions and short-term debt reduction of goods.
"The rising trend of bond market yield reflects more emotional aspects than fundamentals," the deputy general manager of a joint-stock bank wealth management company told reporters.
Whenever there is a redemption tide caused by fluctuations in net worth, it is necessary for banks as managers to stand up and educate investors. ICBC Wealth Management said that the current bond market, especially short-term assets, has been basically adjusted to a region with high cost performance after rapid emotional release. Bond products have coupon value, and only by holding them for a long time can they obtain stable income. In the case that the logic of the bond market has not fundamentally reversed, investors are advised to lengthen the holding period and obtain sustained and stable coupon income.
In addition, managers including BOC Wealth Management, ICBC Wealth Management, Nanyin Wealth Management, Xing Yin Wealth Management and CCB Wealth Management, as well as financial institutions such as Weizhong Bank, have also come out to preach that fixed-income wealth management is still a good choice for investment (because it still has low volatility), and hope that investors can hold products from a long-term perspective.
Regarding the market outlook that the market is most concerned about, ICBC Wealth Management believes that after the logic of strong expectations and weak reality is fully digested, the market will still return to the fundamental logic, and the room for interest rates to continue to rise is relatively limited, and the net value of products is expected to gradually recover.
The foundation of ICBC's financial management is: in terms of funds, the gradual easing of exchange rate pressure and the weak recovery pattern of economic fundamentals determine that funds do not have the conditions of trend pessimism, and the overall liquidity will remain reasonable and abundant in the future.
In terms of real estate and epidemic prevention policies, the existing policies are aimed at boosting market confidence and promoting stable and healthy economic development. However, the improvement effect of economic data such as social integration, PMI and inflation in June 5438+ 10 is not obvious, and the momentum of economic recovery and the effectiveness of policies need further observation.
Debate on the follow-up direction of the bond market
"We have been very cautious in trading recently, and maintaining annual income is the biggest appeal." The aforementioned private equity fund manager said that the private equity is pessimistic about the bond market and believes that the yield of short-term government bonds is difficult to change the upward trend.
Xu Hanfei, chief bond strategist of Industrial Bank's financial market business, even issued a document on June 1 13, pointing out that in the rest of 2022, the bond market will be affected by multiple negative factors such as the inflection point of global liquidity marginal relaxation, the inflection point of risk preference improvement and the internal factors of bond market adjustment, and there will be a wave of decline. It is estimated that the interest rate will rebound by at least 20bp, 65438+.
However, many market participants believe that the bond market is difficult to reverse in the short term. "It is too early to say that there is an inflection point in the bond market." An analyst of Guoyuan Securities told the Securities Times reporter that the economic recovery is still in the stage of policy bottoming and in the ascendant, and more active cooperation between monetary policy and fiscal policy is still needed. At present, the probability of a sharp shift in policy is low, and bonds temporarily lack the basis for changing from cattle to bears. With the adjustment of yield, the attractiveness of bond assets will gradually increase, and the allocation value and transaction value will reach equilibrium again, thus stabilizing the market.
Li Xifeng also said that the recent market mainly comes from the expected changes brought by policies, and the feedback of policies on economic data needs to be verified. Under the optimization of policies, the probability of repeated epidemics and weak real estate investment is high, and the economic fundamentals are not optimistic, so the market may be biased towards short-term adjustment in the near future.
"Looking forward to the market outlook, the bond market will gradually stabilize after substantial adjustment and will be repaired in the short term. However, before the strong expectation of economic improvement can not be falsified and the marginal convergence trend of liquidity, the 10 national debt may fluctuate upward. The bullish factors such as the expected fermentation in 65438+February and the increase in fiscal expenditure at the end of the quarter will appear, and the market will pay more attention to the expected weak economic data in 165438+ 10, and the bond market may heat up. " Li Xifeng said.
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