Let's talk about wheat first, the demand is weak, and it is difficult to see the possibility of a rebound in the short term. Judging from the recent auction results at all levels, China Grain Reserve has no intention to raise prices for the time being, and even continuously lowered the auction reserve price, which is simply a scene of smashing wheat! There is a simple reason. There are still a large number of auctions under the condition that the reserve price of the auction is lowered. It is not ruled out that the official may continue to lower the auction reserve price, further aggravating the pessimism in the whole wheat market. However, with the arrival of April, the situation that wheat only falls but does not rise will probably change. The main support points come from the following items:
With the stimulation of festivals such as 1, Qingming holiday and May Day holiday, people are more willing to go out in the post-epidemic era, which is also in line with the official policy of stimulating economic recovery!
As the weather gets warmer, the grain sources in the hands of traders are greatly reduced. After entering the second quarter, the demand for downstream flour has risen conditionally!
March and April is a time node for corn deep processing enterprises and feed enterprises that just need to replenish their stocks. Corn may go up, which will have an adverse impact on wheat prices!
Summary: There are still many bad news in the wheat market in April, but the corresponding positive factors will also increase. From the time point of view, there are still more than two months from the listing of Xinmai. The weather is abnormal this year, and wheat production is likely to be reduced. Therefore, the price of wheat has the conditions to pick up before the wheat harvest. At present, wheat is in the stage of continuous bottoming out, with the recent decline of key wheat, the change of downstream demand and the trend of corn price! For grain merchants at this stage, the best strategy is actually very simple. Keep abreast of the latest changes in the market, especially the price fluctuations and the arrival of goods, so as to adjust their purchase and sale strategies reasonably!
Yesterday, the domestic corn price was mixed, but it weakened to some extent in terms of amplitude and scope. As we said in the early warning article, the demand in the corn market at this stage is not only weak, but also the impact of the wheat crisis can not be ignored. Even if some enterprises in Shandong rebound slightly, there is nothing to be happy about, not to mention that the corn market has turned around. In Bian Xiao's view, it is indeed possible for prices to rebound in April. As for the increase, it is mainly related to the grain selling mentality of farmers and herdsmen. We have said many times about the advice to farmers. The boss who has a delivery plan before the wheat harvest should grasp the changes in the market and be ready to enter the market at any time!
At present, the price in Northeast China is the biggest threat. Judging from the current situation, if the northeast is unstable, it will not only affect the local food prices, but also limit the height of North China and Shandong. Although the current price theory has a basis for the entry of grain in Northeast China, it still needs to be observed. Although Bian Xiao believes that it is unlikely that the grain in Northeast China will enter the customs on a large scale this year, if the northeast enterprises continue to exert pressure, it will not rule out the collapse of farmers' mentality and let the grain source enter the customs on a large scale.
Judging from the futures trend yesterday, the main contract fell again, falling below the 2700 mark, and has fallen below the 8-month low to 2683 yuan. The decline in the past five days is as high as 5%. In the past two years, traders suffered serious losses, which led to insufficient confidence in the late corn. Even if there is an obvious demand gap, they are worried that the government will use various means to level it. As a result, fewer and fewer bosses dare to do inventory, more and more trade, smooth flow of grain sources in the market, forming a situation of oversupply!
Summary: The risk of corn market in the second quarter is still relatively high, but the ups and downs will occur more frequently. This week, the resumption of the decline in wheat prices poses a threat to corn, but it is still within the controllable range. Therefore, in the short term, under the dual influence of policy and demand, corn does have the possibility of oversold, and the rising "ceiling" is more obvious. Traders should be more cautious at this stage!
Remarks: The above analysis of the corn and wheat market at this stage only represents personal views. For reference only, not as a basis for investment. Welcome to leave a message for discussion. Investment is risky and trading needs to be cautious!