When the supply of a commodity increases greatly, the reason why the futures price falls below the spot price.
The futures market is a spot forward market, and there will be great uncertainty in future price fluctuations. Therefore, the price change in the futures market will be much stronger than that in the spot market. When the supply exceeds the demand, the spot market price will fall, and the futures price will inevitably fall more than the spot price. When the supply is less than the demand, the futures price rises more than the spot market. The spot price of futures will be the same only when it is delivered.