At present, the collection of corn is still in the yield and market of corn, but the overall performance of corn this year shows that corn has ushered in a "four rises" this year.
Before 1. went on the market, the price of corn rose.
This is the biggest benefit for the corn market, because nothing excites the market more than the rise in the spot price of corn.
Affected by the delayed listing of corn in parts of Liaoning and Jilin, the bullish sentiment of corn in Northeast China is getting higher and higher.
In addition, at present, the corn is green and yellow, and the inventory of enterprises is constantly consumed, so the northeast corn in the spot market has also ushered in an increase.
Although Shandong corn still fluctuates according to the number of cars, it has obviously improved compared with the deep drop in August.
As the new corn market is getting closer and closer, the prices of new and old corn will gradually hand over. Obviously, the increase of spot corn price will help push the price of corn in the new season.
The price of corn scale has gone up.
The open-scale price of corn in the new season this year is widely collected, because the open-scale price is often the basis of the trend of corn in the new season.
At present, sporadic corn in some areas of Huanghuai has been listed, and the price is about 200 yuan/ton higher than last year.
This is mainly because the planting cost this year is significantly higher than last year, thus pushing the corn market higher.
The increase of open-scale price is undoubtedly more beneficial to the corn market, which means that the open-scale price of corn may increase everywhere, laying a good foundation for the overall trend of corn.
The cost of importing corn has gone up.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, international food prices rose again.
Although the international food price has fallen in an all-round way since June, it is still much higher than the same period last year, and the price of corn is still higher than the same period.
According to the data released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations not long ago, in August, although the global food price index fell for the fifth consecutive month, the decline of the food price index narrowed significantly, only 1.4%.
Among them, the price of corn showed a slight upward trend, with an increase of 1.5%.
The main reason is that due to the hot weather, the corn production prospects in the European Union and the United States have declined, while Ukraine's grain exports have resumed, but due to geographical conflicts, the corn production in the new season is not optimistic.
As the main source countries of corn imported from China, the corn production in the United States and Ukraine is expected to decline. Corn production in the United States is expected to decrease by about 5%, and Ukraine is expected to decrease by 15%.
However, Brazil's corn output, which signed an agreement with China this year, has not yet been determined.
This makes the cost of importing corn in China still very high, for example, the import cost of corn in the United States is still concentrated in the historical high area of 2800~3000 yuan/ton.
About 10% of China's annual corn deficit depends on imports, while the cost of imported corn remains high and its advantages are obviously reduced, which further benefits the domestic corn market.
4. The price of corn futures rose.
In 2004, corn futures varieties were listed on Dalian Commodity Exchange, which was the re-launch of corn futures since the rectification of China Futures Market 1998. At present, corn futures are also the largest spot agricultural products futures varieties in China.
Futures is the expectation of the future spot market. The corn futures market has rebounded significantly since the expected decrease in corn production and delayed listing at the end of August. At present, it has returned to the position of 2800, and there is still upward momentum.
This also reflects that the market is optimistic about the trend of corn in the new season.
Driven by these rising factors, this year's corn market is relatively optimistic, but this optimism is obviously different from the previous two years.
The optimism of the previous two years was that with the surge in market demand, corn prices rose sharply, showing a bull market.
This year's optimism is more manifested in the upward shift of the center of gravity of corn prices than the skyrocketing corn prices. Therefore, we should not be blindly optimistic about the next trend of corn, but still need to be cautious.