Recently, there has been a lot of talk about RMB appreciation, from a one-time sharp appreciation to a gradual appreciation, and the expectation of appreciation is getting stronger and stronger. In fact, I don't want to talk about this learned topic, because I'm not interested, but some friends want to hear my opinion. I am a very rough lout, but rough is still a smart person, but as long as I understand things, it is as simple as putting on shoes, unlike those experts who always pick nonsense that others don't understand. Now let's talk about the appreciation of RMB.

From July 2008 to now, the RMB exchange rate has basically remained near 6.8 yuan, which has been maintained at 2 1 month. Since the beginning of this year, the United States has made a fierce propaganda and threatened currency manipulators (once it is listed as a currency manipulator, the United States will impose a punitive tariff of 27.5% on all products imported from China), but this is just a scare from the United States, which wants China to make concessions on the issue of appreciation. The result of confrontation must be a compromise between the two sides, that is, appreciation, but it will not be achieved in one step. In this way, there is the expectation of RMB appreciation.

The impact of RMB appreciation;

First of all, the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar leads to the reduction of the sales income of export enterprises converted into RMB, which is unfavorable to export enterprises.

Secondly, it is conducive to the import of products. The depreciation of the dollar will reduce the import cost, so it is beneficial to import enterprises. For example, papermaking enterprises rely heavily on the import of raw materials such as pulp and waste paper.

Third, it is beneficial to enterprises with large US dollar loans. For example, an air transport enterprise, assuming that it borrowed $6,543.8+billion to buy a plane at the beginning, bought it in dollars with $682 million. If the RMB exchange rate appreciates to 58.2 in the future, they only need to exchange 582 million yuan for 1 billion dollars when they repay, and they can save 654.38 billion yuan.

In addition, the expected appreciation will lead to the inflow of hot money into China, which will push up the domestic asset prices, mainly reflected in the rising prices of property market, stock market and resource products. However, due to the influence of government regulation, the potential of property market price increase will not be great in the short term, so we can pay attention to the price trend of resource products (pay attention to futures). However, I think the share price of the relevant listed companies has been greatly overdrawn, so the short-term share price may rise, but the potential is limited and it will improve in the long run.

The appreciation of RMB is not bad for everything, but good for buying foreign goods, traveling abroad, studying abroad and buying a house in the United States.

On the issue of raising interest rates, many so-called insiders have been calling for raising interest rates last year, but it's a pity that the Nana Ogawa brothers didn't give these experts a long face. Years ago, I said in my composition and personal communication with friends that I would not raise interest rates for the time being, and it would be after May at the earliest. Now it is getting closer and closer to raising interest rates, and it is possible to start the interest rate hike cycle as soon as next month …

Generally speaking, on the premise of a country's economic stability, the increase of its interest rate is very attractive to foreign investors, which is the case in China at present. With the further increase of interest rate in China, foreign capital will invest in China rapidly for a period of time, which will inevitably increase the demand pressure on RMB in the foreign exchange market, that is, the RMB will face the pressure of further appreciation.

The appreciation pressure mainly comes from the trade surplus. China's foreign trade surplus rose for 38 consecutive months, hitting a new high. The surge in foreign exchange reserves and the intensification of trade friction are the biggest factors for the appreciation of the renminbi, which in turn forces the central bank to issue too much money and tends to seek profits.

Faced with this situation, it is expected that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates in the second half of the year, reduce the pressure on Tong Peng, reduce excess liquidity, and maintain a sound and fast economy …

Just write this, yes, and you can also write something about the impact on the stock market. Oh, adopt me, O(∩_∩)O~