First, the crazy pig price rebound
Why use the word rebound to describe the rising trend of pig prices? Because this pig price surge is indeed caused by the rebound of pig prices. 202 1 China pig price began to fluctuate downward. In the later period, with the gradual recovery of pig production capacity, the price of pigs fell more and more. Until the beginning of 10, the pig price was still in a downward trend. Even with the arrival of the National Day holiday in 10, the pig price still failed to usher in a seasonal rebound. The pig industry has completely failed, and the average price of foreign three yuan has broken 5%. Some fat pigs even fell to a catty in 23 yuan, and one pig lost nearly 1,000 yuan. Pig farmers can be said to have entered a dark moment!
The reasons for the long-term decline in pig prices are mainly due to the recovery of production capacity, the high inventory of imported frozen meat, the sluggish market consumption, the slow trading of white pork, and the aggravation of the sentiment of slaughtering enterprises, which led to the centralized selling at the breeding end and eventually led to the collapse of pig prices across the board. However, misfortune followed, and after the crazy selling, it also laid the groundwork for the rebound of pig prices.
As the pig price bottomed out, the pork market ushered in a wave of price cuts. The average price of pork in China has dropped to ten yuan, and pork in many places has even dropped to six or seven yuan a catty. The appearance of low price effect of pork has greatly stimulated people's pork consumption. Coupled with the influence of cold air in the north, the weather in many places has cooled down, and pork consumption in the market has risen rapidly. With the price resistance at the breeding end, the pig price market rebounded.
As of June 25th 10, the national average price of Sanyuan has exceeded the mark of 16 yuan, and the market quotation of slaughter enterprises is 16. 19 yuan/kg, which is 1.05 yuan higher than yesterday and 3. 1 yuan higher than last month. Pig prices have soared, and pig prices have soared in many places.
Second, from the rebound to the skyrocketing, what has the pig price experienced?
Behind this round of pig price rebound, the industry generally believes that it is mainly caused by three aspects. One is consumption stimulus, which is different from previous seasonal consumption. This round of pork consumption has grown rapidly, especially in third-and fourth-tier cities. According to statistics, pork sales in some first-tier cities in Beijing and Shanghai increased by 1 ~ 20% last week, and pork sales in third-tier cities and rural areas even increased by 3~5 times.
Among them, there are factors such as pork price reduction and weather cooling. With the rapid decline of the weather in the north, the consumption impulse of enema fever has appeared in many areas. Of course, the speculative psychology of market speculation is not ruled out. The price of pigs dropped to six or seven yuan a catty, which obviously fell below the cost of breeding. With the rebound of the later market, some hot money speculators generally believe that pork prices have fallen to the bottom, and the later rebound is coming soon. It is also a time when investment is in full swing. From the appearance of pig futures last week and the sharp rise of stock price, we can see how strong the market expects the future pig price to be bullish.
Most importantly, the price of pigs has just passed the dark moment, the selling of cattle and pigs in the market has just ended, and the substantial increase in pork consumption in the market has made the short board of the pig market with few fat pigs reappear. With the increase of consumption and the shortage of big pigs, the price of pigs has gone up, and the mentality of resisting prices at the breeding end has gradually increased. The standard pig price has skyrocketed due to the size of the pig, and the market has also risen higher and higher. With the tight supply of live pigs, the original seller's market has also moved to the buyer's market. The higher the price, the less pig farmers are willing to sell, and the less they sell, which promotes the skyrocketing pig price.
Third, how long can the rise in pig prices last?
After several rounds of soaring pig prices, the average price of live pigs in the market returned to the 8 yuan mark. Due to the tight supply, some areas refused to sell at a reduced price, and even broke through 9 yuan by a catty. Unfortunately, the current trend of soaring pig prices is still unabated, and there are signs of breaking through 9-stroke 10, and the rise is in the end. Has the pig price entered a new round of rising cycle so soon?
In this regard, industry insiders said that the current increase in pig prices only bottomed out in stages, and the elimination of production capacity has not completely bottomed out, and the increase in pig prices is difficult to sustain. On the one hand, the domestic pig production capacity is still growing at a relatively fast speed, and there is no shortage of pigs in the market. Once the pig price rises to expectations, the price resistance at the breeding end is loose and the number of slaughter is reduced, then the pig price will inevitably fall again.
On the other hand, considering the trend of pig price in the later period, we should not only look at the superficial market, but also look at the change of the number of fertile sows, which is also an important indicator of the future trend of pig price rise and fall. Behind the sharp rise in pig prices in the previous two years was the swine fever epidemic of 18, and the environmental ban and the sharp drop in pig prices led to the concentrated flight of pig farmers, which led to the freezing point of fertile sows and the tight supply of pigs in the market for a long time, which was also the fundamental reason why pig prices were difficult to fall back in the previous two years.
Now with the recovery of production capacity in the past two years, the number of sows and pigs has returned to normal. Although the pig market was depressed in the early stage, the elimination of pig farmers increased, and the growth rate of fertile sows decreased month on month. But in fact, at present, the proportion of fertile sows is still too high, and most pig enterprises and pig farmers have eliminated inefficient and inferior fertile sows.
According to statistics, at the end of the third quarter, there were 44.59 million fertile sows in China, up 65.438+06% year-on-year, down 0.23% month-on-month, and the proportion of binary sows increased to 70-80%. That is to say, although the number of fertile sows has decreased, the proportion of high-quality sows has increased a lot, and the supply capacity of piglets has not weakened much, making the market pig price more uncertain.
Fourth, two things to be wary of!
What we are worried about now is not whether the pig price will rise more or less, but whether it will last. Behind the strong rebound, there is also an invisible crisis!
1, the "Spring Festival Pit" that may be brought about by the skyrocketing pig price. This round of pig price rise and fall has two obvious characteristics: one is the early price increase, and the other is the fierce price increase. The price increase has long been due to the "low price effect" brought by the sharp drop in meat prices, and the cold weather has promoted the early arrival of the bacon sausage season. Although the short-term is conducive to the rebound of pig prices, in the long run, the appearance of early consumption is likely to weaken the pork consumption expectation during the Spring Festival.
The sudden price increase does not rule out market speculation and reluctance to sell at the breeding end. The market of slaughter enterprises rebounded less than two days after the first price reduction, indicating that pig farmers' reluctance to sell has been completely driven, although the reluctance to sell in the short term has contributed to the further increase of pig prices. However, it also aggravated the sales pressure of live pigs in the market. The market is so big, consumption is ahead of schedule, but production capacity is delayed. Everyone is optimistic about the pig price during the Spring Festival. Once pig farmers concentrate on the Spring Festival, the risk of falling pig prices will increase and extend.
2, the bottom of the cycle or extended. Pork period is a unique phenomenon of pig price, and the price will change with the fluctuation of pig cycle. Generally speaking, a complete pig cycle lasts 3~4 years. Since 2003, China has experienced five pig cycles, and each pig cycle will have a certain market bottom and market high, so there is obvious speculative psychology in the market.
The current pig cycle started from 2065438+April 2008. According to the law of time, a new round of pork cycle will come at random, especially the recent rapid rise of pig prices, which has also caused a good signal to the market. It is easy for everyone to predict the rise of pig prices. However, we must know that the biggest difference between this pig cycle and the past is that the industry has entered a deep loss from a high-profit era in a very short time, and quickly rose from the bottom of the price to a stop-loss profit and loss.
Behind such ups and downs, it turns out that the market has not been completely transformed, and the transformation of fertile sows has not yet been completed, and a new round of replenishment tide has been heard. It is worth noting that after the continuous increase in pig prices in the last ten days of 10, the enthusiasm of pig farmers to replenish piglets has gradually increased, especially the phenomenon of buying sows has also increased, and the reserve force of the whole sow can not be ignored. In this way, the productivity of sows that have been degraded in the early stage will soon go up again, further extending the downward cycle of the bottom of pig prices.
Therefore, personally, although the pig price continues to rebound and the market is likely to rise further, the pig shortage in the market is not obvious, and there is basically no possibility of a sharp rise in pig prices. In addition, we should also be alert to a series of hidden dangers brought about by the rapid rise in pig prices, and pig farmers should not aim too high. When the pig price rebounds, we should also maintain the normal rhythm of slaughter to avoid the emergence of high and low points in the later period. What do you think of this? Welcome everyone to discuss enthusiastically.