The author has long warned that the risk of this round of market is far greater than that of 2007. Even when the Shanghai Composite Index reached 6 124.04 in 2007, there was basically no highly leveraged financing. At that time, the funds were basically real "spot trading" funds, and no futures margin funds with high leverage and high risk entered the market. This time is different.
From a macro perspective, this round of market started with the water release currency that the central bank cut interest rates in an all-round way. The central bank tried its best to suck milk, directionally lowered the deposit reserve ratio, played tricks to release liquidity, completely relaxed the mortgage policy, and finally cut interest rates completely naked. Due to the weakness of the real economy and the real enterprises, they can't absorb the funds released by the central bank, and the real enterprises have difficulties in operation, losses or even bankruptcy, which has no attraction and temptation for funds, including the funds released by the central bank. At the same time, the market itself is not short of liquidity, but liquidity does not flow to entities. Therefore, all the money and credit funds released by the central bank flowed into the stock market, and the skyrocketing stock market attracted the original stock funds of entities, including real estate, especially the production and operation funds to enter the stock market. Part of the production and operation funds entered at a high level above 3000 points in the Shanghai Composite Index. The stock market crash is bound to lock these funds completely, and it is difficult for general funds to escape from this crash. In other words, the stock market crash will not only bring risks to itself, but also completely crush the entity enterprises and push them to a desperate situation. The whole economic risk will be highlighted. The harm of this market to the whole macro-economy is incalculable.
From the micro level, the three major financial risks are just around the corner. The risk of securities lending business will begin to be exposed. Since the end of June last year, the balance of financing in the whole market has increased rapidly from 400 billion to 1. 1 trillion, and the proportion of financing transactions in the market turnover has reached 32%. Coupled with highly leveraged P2P online loans, bank wealth management products, trusts and other institutions, the high-risk and highly leveraged financing of the whole market should be close to 50%. The author has said many times that this round of market is a market in which the central bank releases water and brokers play their own roles. Focus on margin financing and securities lending business. At the same time, P2P online loan highly leveraged stock allocation has entered the stock market in a big way. This leverage ratio is even wilder, unregulated, and some funds are allocated as high as 7 times. This kind of capital allocation is more risky than margin financing and securities lending. Furthermore, both bank wealth management products and trust wealth management products have a certain amount of stock matching business. Similar in nature to margin financing and securities lending, they are all high-risk funds.
Margin trading, P2P online lending, highly leveraged stock allocation and bank trust stock allocation products, under the normal circumstances of the stock market, including the stock market does not fluctuate, as long as the operation is cautious and the liquidation is completed in time at the liquidation line, the allocated funds should be risk-free. However, what I am most afraid of is the rare plunge of 65438+ 10/9. This kind of market is too late to close the position for highly leveraged funds to enter the market. For example, CITIC Securities (600030) suspended trading as soon as it opened, and closed in a horizontal straight line all day, even the best traders could not close their positions. If there are several daily limit, then the financial risk of securities firms will be exposed immediately, and a large amount of financing will become bad debts. Peer-to-peer online lending, highly leveraged stock allocation, and stock allocation products of bank trusts will be even more tragic. This round of market can be said to be a financial market. In this round of market, brokerage stocks are magnificent and become skyrocketing stocks. Most of the funds that rose sharply in brokerage stocks and banking stocks were brought by highly leveraged financing business. The collapse of the stock market will certainly break this highly leveraged financing bubble, and it will also highlight the huge capital risk of highly leveraged securities firms, P2P online loans and bank trusts entering the stock market. In this regard, the regulatory authorities must attach great importance to it.
65438+ 10 19 A shares plunged. It seems that the punishment of 12 brokerage firms for illegal financing business is the fuse, and its essence is the inevitable result brought by the accumulation of high-leverage financing risks of A shares. It also proves once again that this round of market is a market in which the central bank puts money and brokers direct and perform themselves. This big bubble market triggered by the flood of liquidity will not go far after all.
However, the margin financing and securities lending business is out of control. First, after the CSRC launched this tool a few years ago, it has never encountered a big market test, and the power of high leverage in margin financing and securities lending has not been predicted at all. After this round of market, its high risk is fully exposed. Second, the CSRC turned a blind eye to lowering the threshold of margin financing and securities lending before, including the threshold of opening an account of 500,000. For example, some brokers have reduced their prices to 654.38+10,000 yuan. It is reported that individual brokers have no asset quota requirements at all. However, the CSRC turned a blind eye and even acquiesced. As a result, the customers of margin financing and securities lending increased greatly, and the financing balance reached as high as 1. 1 trillion yuan. Now it has suddenly tightened, and the CSRC has actually remembered the initial threshold of 500,000 yuan. Below this, it is an illegal account opening. After the sudden tightening, only 3.3% of the total effective customers met the requirements. The stock market funds will shrink immediately, and financial stocks such as brokers will inevitably plummet. The selective supervision of the CSRC, the casual supervision when it is tight and loose, and almost no supervision are one of the reasons for the sharp rise and fall of the stock market. The CSRC is to blame and must reflect.
The CSRC supervised and rectified the "two-finance" business. After dealing with 12 illegal brokers, the CBRC also took the initiative to entrust loans to banks, among which prohibiting entrusted loans from entering the stock market was the key point. Investors should make intensive efforts from the regulatory authorities to clean illegal funds into the stock market and realize some changes in the "wind direction". Does it reveal the high-level attitude towards the blood-sucking effect of the current mad cow stock market on the whole economic body? Investors need to analyze and grasp by themselves. However, it is urgent to guard against the risk of A-share investment.