Target price subsidies for cotton in Xinjiang take the form of combining planting area with seed cotton sales, in which planting area subsidies account for 60% of the central subsidy funds and seed cotton sales account for 40% of the central subsidy funds.
When the market price in Xinjiang is lower than the target price of cotton announced in the current period (the target price of cotton in Xinjiang in 20 14/20 15 cotton season is per ton 19800 yuan), the central government will verify the total subsidies in Xinjiang and allocate them to the finance of Xinjiang Autonomous Region at one time according to the difference between the two and the cotton output in Xinjiang counted by the National Bureau of Statistics. Then the finance of Xinjiang Autonomous Region will be allocated to local finance step by step, and subsidies will be distributed to farmers and related units according to the relevant proportion.
Previously, the market predicted that Xinjiang would implement a single "mu compensation" or "quantity compensation" method. The subsidy method of combining planting area with seed cotton sales this time reflects the balanced consideration of policies. Focusing on "compensation per mu" means greater controllability and operability, which is conducive to stabilizing cotton planting area.
For the acquisition period of Xinjiang cotton market price, the Plan stipulates that it is 9- 1 1 month. Due to the influence of climatic factors during the year, the centralized listing time of Xinjiang new cotton in the 20 14/20 15 season was delayed by about 1 month, and the national reserve cotton stopped being put on the market at the end of August. In September, the domestic cotton supply was actually in a period of "green and yellow". At this time, the market price of cotton has some support, or it can't reflect the situation that the market price of new cotton has fallen sharply after listing.
The reserve price is still unclear.
At the national level, it has been made clear that a bottoming plan will be formulated. When the price of cotton in the domestic market falls excessively and cotton sales are difficult, necessary measures will be taken to encourage enterprises to buy in the market and stabilize the market.
At present, the market is most concerned about when the domestic cotton price will drop sharply. The specific composition of the national "bottoming" plan and the price selection range of "bottoming". The Plan does not specify the "bottoming" plan and the bottoming price range.
Affected by the high national cotton stock, the slow growth of downstream textile industry and the cotton direct subsidy policy implemented in China during the 20 14/20 15 cotton season, cotton prices are determined by market supply and demand, and the market generally expects that the centralized listing of new cotton will lead to a sharp drop in domestic cotton prices. At present, the domestic spot price of cotton is per ton 16000 yuan, and the cotton futures price has dropped to the range of per ton 13000 yuan-14000 yuan.
The price range of "bottoming" will directly affect the future cotton price trend. And determine the final subsidy for the 20 14/20 15 national cotton season.
People familiar with the matter told Great Wisdom News Agency that before, the relevant departments thought that the price per ton10.5 million yuan was enough to "support the bottom", but recently cotton prices have fallen, and the "support" price has fallen into a new debate.
A mainstream cotton trader believes that relevant departments should determine the "bottoming" plan as soon as possible to stabilize market confidence. "If the relevant policies are implemented, it is expected that it will not be too late to' bottom out'."
Due to the expected decline in cotton prices in the market, cotton used by downstream textile enterprises is basically in a state of "buy as you use it". A number of textile enterprises told Great Wisdom News Agency that under the current market situation, enterprises dare not replenish their stocks, and cotton stocks among enterprises remain low.
"If there is no bottoming policy, the domestic spot price of cotton may even drop all the way to 1.3 million-1.4 million yuan per ton." A leading cotton trader said, "If the government introduces the bottom price as soon as possible and gives the market a bottom, it will help stimulate market consumption and textile enterprises to replenish their stocks."
Textile enterprises benefit from cotton marketization
With the approval of the plan, cotton prices will return to market supply and demand, which is conducive to enhancing the market bargaining power of downstream textile enterprises.
Affected by the drop in international cotton prices, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has recently expanded to more than 4,000 yuan per ton. If the domestic cotton price falls sharply in the future, it will help to narrow the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, enhance the international competitiveness of textile enterprises and reduce the raw material procurement cost of textile enterprises.
However, the trend of domestic cotton follow-up policy is still unclear, and it is difficult to evaluate what problems will exist in the specific implementation of Xinjiang cotton direct subsidy policy. The cotton market in 20 14/20 15, which was decided by the state purchasing and storage for the first time, is also facing variables.
Gao Yong, vice president of China National Textile and Apparel Council, said that the domestic cotton price trend may be "strange" in the future. "The judgment of cotton price needs to evaluate and judge the future trend of policy."