Using the expectation of price changes, in the same market, according to the order of buying before selling or selling before buying, we speculate on the contracts of the same variety and the same month to earn the profit difference between bull market and bear market.
2. Time difference speculation
It is also intertemporal arbitrage, that is, taking advantage of the short-term imbalance between supply and demand of a commodity in a certain place, in the same market, contracts of the same variety in different months are operated in reverse at the same time, earning the spread profit of futures in different months. Arbitrage can be divided into bull spread, bear market arbitrage and butterfly arbitrage.
(1) bear market arbitrage
Bear market arbitrage is that in a bull market period, the price of forward futures contracts rises more than that of recent contracts; In a bear market, the price of forward futures contracts is lower than that of recent contracts. The method of bear market arbitrage is to sell in the near future and buy for a long time, and then close the position and buy for a long time.
(2) Long spread
Niusan is in a bull market, and the price increase of forward futures contracts is less than that of recent contracts. In the bear market, the price of forward futures contracts fell more than that of recent contracts. The method of cattle scattering is to buy short and sell long, and then close the position and sell short and buy long.
(3) Butterfly arbitrage
Butterfly arbitrage is a combination of bear market arbitrage and bull spread.
3. Speculation of spatial differences
Spatial spread speculation is also called cross-market arbitrage, that is, using the short-term spread of a commodity in two exchanges, contracts of the same variety and the same month are operated in reverse at the same time in different markets to earn the spread profits of futures in different exchanges. Cross-market arbitrage trading must pay attention to: both are contracts of the same futures commodity in the same month; The price difference between the two cities is obvious or the fluctuation range is different; The trading procedures of the two cities are basically the same; The delivery and settlement rules of the two cities are basically the same; The contract contents of the two cities are basically the same.
4. Basic speculation
Using the short-term fluctuation range or trend of a commodity's spot and futures, in the same market or region, the spot and futures of the same variety operate in the opposite direction (reverse market) or in the same direction (forward market) at the same time, earning the profit of basis change.