The world demand for biodiesel is expected to increase from 6.9 million tons in 2006 to 44.8 million tons in 2065. By 20 10, Asia is expected to surpass North America and Central and Eastern Europe and become the second largest biodiesel producing area in the world after Western Europe. The global biodiesel industry is growing rapidly. From 2000 to 2005, the average annual growth rate of production capacity, output and consumption was about 32%. By 2008, the growth rate of production capacity and demand will be faster, and the average annual growth rate will reach 1 15% and10/0/%respectively, or even higher. The global biodiesel production pattern will also change from 2005 to 20 10. In 2005, the biodiesel production in western Europe accounted for 75% of the global total, and will be reduced to less than 40% in 20 10, mainly due to the accelerated production growth in other regions led by Asia, which will probably become the second largest biodiesel production region, followed by North America. In terms of consumption, Germany accounted for 665,438+0% of global consumption in 2005, while other consuming countries mainly included France, the United States, Italy and Brazil, and their total consumption only accounted for 65,438+0% of global consumption. In 20 10, the United States may become the largest biodiesel market in the world, accounting for 18% of global consumption. New large-scale consumption markets will emerge in China and India, and the total consumption of other countries will account for 44% of global consumption. The source of raw materials for biofuels has become an important issue for the sustainable development of biofuels.
Southeast Asia is becoming the main biodiesel production base, and it is expected to become the leading global supply region by 20 10. Governments and enterprises in Southeast Asia have invested heavily in the development of biodiesel industry, and biodiesel factories under construction are all over the country, thus becoming the main suppliers of biodiesel in Western Europe and North America in the future. Tung oil is one of the most abundant natural resources in Southeast Asia and will become the main raw material for developing biodiesel industry in this region. At the same time, the region also plans to develop a large amount of land into new oil palm plantations. The fastest growing biodiesel industry in Southeast Asia is Malaysia, followed by Thailand and Indonesia. The gross palm oil production of Malaysia and Indonesia together accounts for about 85% of the global production.
Last May, Thailand's Ministry of Energy began to implement a plan to make biodiesel production reach 2.55 million tons by 20 12. According to the Malaysian government, in 2007, the country's biodiesel production will more than double to 165438+ 10,000 tons, and the number of factories will increase from 3 this year to 22, to 29 in 2008, and to 3.3 million tons in 20 10, making Malaysia the second largest creature in the world alongside India after the United States and Germany. According to the Indonesian government, the country's biodiesel production is expected to increase from 65,438+800,000 tons in 2006 to 750,000 tons in 2007 and 65,438+200,000 tons in 2008. The number of biodiesel plants in this country will increase from 4 this year to 1.5, and will reach 23 in 2008. By 20 10, the annual output of biodiesel in Indonesia and Thailand will reach about10.3 million tons. At present, 20% ~ 25% fuel ethanol is added to all car gasoline in Brazil, and a large number of cars use pure fuel ethanol. In addition to vigorously developing bioethanol industry in China, Brazil is also actively engaged in international "ethanol diplomacy". In March this year, Brazil signed an agreement with the United States to encourage the production and consumption of ethanol in the western hemisphere. In addition, cooperation agreements have been signed with Italy and Ecuador to develop ethanol projects. After China restricted the use of corn to process biofuels, it attracted wide attention from Brazilian industry. 1995, the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture expressed concern about the promotion of ethanol gasoline in China, hoping to cooperate extensively with China in the development of ethanol fuel.
In the 1970s, the United States began to develop fuel ethanol by taking advantage of its large arable land and high corn yield. At present, the technology of producing fuel ethanol from corn is basically mature. At the beginning of this year, Bush said that the legal general goal of renewable and alternative energy in the United States is to reach 7.5 billion gallons by 20 12 and 35 billion gallons by 20 17, while the current annual output of alternative energy is 4 billion gallons. Therefore, the price of corn in the United States is rising. With the increasing demand for fuel gasoline, ethanol processing projects in the United States have also been launched. In 2004-2005, the total amount of corn used to produce ethanol was 65.438+323 billion bushels, and it reached 26.5438+500 million bushels in 2005-2006. The USDA predicts that about 3.2 billion bushels of corn will be used to process fuel ethanol in 2007.
Some enterprises are committed to converting non-food or waste biomass such as straw into ethanol to help solve the problem of raw material supply. Bioethanol production from lignocellulose is the focus of technical development. Lignocellulose comes from agricultural wastes (such as wheat straw, corn straw, corn cob, etc. ), industrial waste (such as pulp and paper mill fiber residue), forestry waste and urban waste (such as waste paper, packaging paper, etc.). ). At present, scientific research institutions all over the world focus on these key technologies, but at present, there is no enterprise in the world that uses cellulose raw materials to produce fuel ethanol on an industrial scale. The main obstacle is the high cost of enzymolysis and the lack of economical and feasible fermentation technology. Therefore, the optimal combination of technical routes, cost reduction in production process and comprehensive utilization of alcohol waste grains are urgent problems to be solved.
Cultured algae is another potential biofuel raw material. Some enterprises are developing systems to produce synthesis gas and hydrogen from algae industrialization. Green Fuel Technology Co., Ltd. cooperates with Arizona Public Service Co., Ltd. to cultivate algae that can be converted into biodiesel or bioethanol by using carbon dioxide emitted from natural gas-based power plants. The technology of green fuel technology company was tested in a power plant in Arizona last year and achieved great success. The company plans to expand the scope of the project and start commercial production in Arizona in 2008, and then expand to Australia and South Africa. China is rich in corn resources, with an annual output of 65.438+0.44 billion tons in 2006, ranking second in the world, and the annual output of corn stalks exceeds 600 million tons. Under the background of global concern about the energy crisis and the development and utilization of renewable resources, fuel ethanol, corn ethylene and its derivatives, degradable polymer materials, etc. Corn produced from corn has become a hot spot for enterprises to compete for development and investment. In 2006, the annual consumption of renewable energy in China reached 654.38+800 million tons of standard coal, accounting for about 7.5% of the total primary energy consumption. Ethanol gasoline blended with 10% fuel ethanol has become one of the key points of China's energy substitution strategy.
In 200 1 year, the proportion of corn in domestic alcohol raw materials was 59%, and by 2006, the proportion rose to 79%. At present, relevant departments are working on the research and development of sugarcane fuel ethanol for automobiles. At present, the annual output of sugarcane in China is about 85 million tons, and the output of edible alcohol alone is more than 500 thousand tons. If the technology research is successful and the cost is properly controlled, the production of fuel ethanol from sugarcane will have a good development prospect. However, the problem is that China's sugarcane planting area is very limited, mainly concentrated in a few provinces such as Guangxi and Yunnan. With the substantial increase in domestic sugar consumption, the price will also rise all the way, and the production cost is likely to be much higher than that of corn for fuel ethanol. Relevant persons of the National Development and Reform Commission also said that it is the general trend to continue to promote ethanol gasoline, and non-grain bioenergy such as sweet potato, cassava, sweet sorghum and cellulose ethanol will be the focus of future development, and investment in scientific research in this area will be increased. On the other hand, after the relevant ministries and commissions urgently stop corn processing ethanol, the government will continue to "moderately" develop the fuel ethanol industry and insist on a win-win situation for energy and food. On the premise of ensuring food security, the state will adopt some fiscal and taxation support policies to support the production and use of fuel ethanol.
(a) China large group companies actively carry out research, development and production of biofuels.
On June 5438+065438+ 10, 2006, China Petroleum Group and Sichuan Province signed a framework agreement on cooperative development of biomass energy. The two sides will develop biomass energy with sweet potato and jatropha curcas as raw materials, and complete 600,000 tons/year fuel ethanol and 654.38 million tons/year biodiesel projects during the 11th Five-Year Plan period. From June 5, 2006 to February, 2006, China Petroleum signed a framework agreement with Yunnan Province to jointly produce fuel ethanol from non-food energy crops and biodiesel from woody oil plants such as Jatropha curcas. At the beginning of 2007, PetroChina and the State Forestry Administration signed a cooperation framework agreement on forestry biomass energy development, which officially started the construction of the first batch of energy forest bases in Yunnan and Sichuan. As a giant in China's petroleum and energy industry, PetroChina's frequent efforts in biomass energy attract people's attention, which fully shows the strategic importance of biomass energy to PetroChina's development. Jiang Jiemin, general manager of PetroChina, said that by the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan, the annual production capacity of PetroChina's non-grain ethanol will exceed 2 million tons/year, accounting for more than 40% of the national output. At the same time, the commercialization scale of forestry biodiesel will reach 200,000 tons/year, and the biomass energy raw material base will be built over 400,000 hectares.
Coincidentally, COFCO has also promoted the development of biomass energy to the height of strategic importance in recent years, and once kept pace with PetroChina and became a fierce battle. On April 6, 2007, following PetroChina, COFCO and the State Forestry Administration signed the Framework Agreement on Cooperative Development of Forestry Biomass Energy. The two sides will focus on building a number of energy forest bases and developing and utilizing three major products: forestry biodiesel, fuel ethanol and woody edible oil.
COFCO has frequently made heavy punches in fuel ethanol, biodiesel and other aspects, and carried out corporate mergers and acquisitions. At present, the National Development and Reform Commission has approved the construction of four fuel ethanol production units. In 2006, the fifth fuel ethanol production plant approved by the state and the only fuel ethanol plant for non-grain crops-Guangxi 65438+500,000 tons/year cassava ethanol project are under construction.
In July 2006, Sinopec built a 654.38+10,000 tons/year biodiesel plant in Panzhihua, with a supporting energy forest base of 400,000-500,000 mu. In the same month, a pilot biodiesel plant with a total investment of about180,000 yuan and a scale of 2,000 tons/year was built in Hebei. On April 3rd, 2007, China Petrochemical and COFCO signed the Strategic Cooperation Agreement on Biomass Energy and Biochemistry Development in China. * * * With the development of biomass energy and biochemistry, the two sides will jointly build a fuel ethanol production plant with a capacity of 1 10,000 tons/year in the next five years.
It is particularly noteworthy that with the help of the government, some China companies have set up biofuel processing plants overseas. For example, a China enterprise invested 90 million US dollars to open a bioethanol processing plant in Nigeria, with cassava as raw material, with an annual output of 6.5438+0.5 million tons, of which 85% is funded by Beijing and 654.38+0.5% is borne by the Nigerian government. On April 12, 2007, the Ministry of Science and Technology signed an agreement with the Italian Ministry of Environment, Land and Ocean: Wuhan Biodiesel Company cooperated with relevant Italian units to build a production line in Wuhan to process hogwash fat and gutter oil from restaurants into biodiesel. After the production line is completed and put into operation, it can produce 30,000 tons of biodiesel every year, and the production cost is about 5,000 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to petroleum diesel and has a bright development prospect. After the successful implementation of this project in Wuhan, it will be extended to other large and medium-sized cities in China.
(2) The state encourages the research and production of biofuels using non-food crops, and enterprises respond positively.
The Emergency Notice on Strengthening the Construction and Management of Corn Processing Projects issued by the National Development and Reform Commission on June 5438+February 65438+August 2006 clearly stated that China will actively and steadily promote the development of biofuel ethanol industry, immediately suspend the approval and filing of corn processing projects, and comprehensively clean up the projects under construction and proposed. The circular requires that the four fuel ethanol production enterprises built during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, which mainly digest aged grain, shall not increase their production capacity without state approval.
In view of the current grim situation endangering food security, the relevant ministries and commissions have implemented emergency braking on the blind development of corn ethanol processing capacity in some places in China, which has caught production enterprises off guard. The grain problem is directly related to the stability of the whole society and national economy, which may be the most fundamental reason why the national ministries and commissions urgently brake to develop corn ethanol processing capacity. Last year, the international futures prices of corn and soybeans soared. As a result, the price of corn in the domestic market has also risen all the way, and all four designated ethanol production plants in China have lost money. In order not to further stimulate the demand for corn, the National Development and Reform Commission had previously stopped some small and medium-sized ethanol production projects.
At present and in the future, the state will not encourage the large-scale development of fuel ethanol and industrial ethanol with corn, but there are more than 600 million tons of crop straws in China, which should be used on a large scale. The sweet sorghum in the north and cassava in the south are all encouraged by the state. Looking for alternative corn resources, enterprises have begun to act.
COFCO is working hard to develop cassava, sweet sorghum and cellulose ethanol. The 6.5438+500,000 tons/year cassava ethanol project of COFCO Guangxi is under construction and is planned to be put into production this year. Sweet sorghum ethanol is in the pilot stage, and pilot plants for liquid fermentation and solid fermentation have been built in Guilin, Guangxi and Wuyuan, Inner Mongolia respectively. A pilot plant of 500 tons/year cellulose ethanol was built in Zhaodong, Heilongjiang. At present, the production plant is being reformed and the technological process is optimized, laying the foundation for building a 10,000-ton industrial demonstration plant. By 20 10, COFCO will produce 365,438+tons of fuel ethanol annually, of which corn ethanol accounts for 42%, cassava ethanol accounts for 26%, and sweet potato and sweet sorghum ethanol account for 32%. It is true that there are abundant non-grain biomass resources to be developed and utilized in China, including crop stalks, sweet sorghum, cassava and sweet potato, as well as sugarcane, sugar beet, Miscanthus and switchgrass. However, these crops are generally difficult to collect, store and transport, and there are many problems in production, such as immature technology, technology and equipment. In addition, the contradiction between the seasonality of agricultural production and the continuity of industrial production is also the main factor restricting the development of non-edible ethanol.
(1) Promote ethanol fuel and push up food prices.
Worrying signs appear frequently. Some countries in the world actively promote ethanol fuel, such as the United States, Brazil, Mexico, China and other countries, have increased grain production. In the United States, for example, the production of ethanol from corn has pushed up food prices. In August 2006, the price of 1 bushel (equal to 35.238 liters) was $2.09, but in September, June, June and February, the price rose to $2.2, $2.54 and 165438 respectively. In 2006, the ethanol fuel industry in the United States consumed about 20% of corn in the United States, and it is expected to increase to more than 25% this year.
In China, ethanol gasoline blended with 10% ethanol has become an important goal of China's energy substitution strategy, but the competition between grain and grain products and ethanol fuel is becoming increasingly fierce. Professional research institutions predict that during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, China's corn shortage will be around 3.5 million tons, and it will become a net importer from a net exporter of corn. As processing enterprises snap up grain sources, corn prices will inevitably skyrocket. In addition, unlike other countries, China's corn is non-genetically modified, which is very suitable for human and animal consumption, and the production of ethanol fuel is obviously overqualified.
(b) The voice of opposition is rising. Some studies believe that ethanol fuel aggravates environmental pollution.
Many studies around the world show that ethanol fuel advertised as green can't protect the environment as people wish, but it intensifies environmental pollution. The research results of Mark Jacobson, an atmospheric scientist at Stanford University in the United States, show that ethanol fuel is more harmful to human and biological health than people thought before, and vehicles fueled with ethanol may lead to more people suffering from or dying from respiratory diseases. If all cars and trucks are replaced by ethanol-fueled vehicles, the number of people who die from air pollution in the United States will increase by 4%. Facts have proved that the research results of ethanol fuel are not "green", but "black" is not an isolated case. The research team of Burton Vaughan, a biologist at Washington State University, found that the process of producing ethanol caused another kind of environmental pollution, which reduced biodiversity and aggravated soil erosion. In addition, sugar cane, a non-food crop, will consume a lot of water even if it is used to produce ethanol. Every kloc-0/ton of sugar cane needs 3900 liters of water (3.9 tons of water), which increases the burden on the environment.
(3) The production efficiency of bioethanol is low.
At present, corn is widely used in the world to produce bioethanol, but the output efficiency is relatively low. Even in the most technologically advanced factories, only about 45L of ethanol can be produced with 100kg of corn, and the energy consumed in the process of producing ethanol and planting primary crops such as corn is equivalent to 80% of the energy produced by ethanol, and carbon dioxide will be emitted. After systematic calculation, scientists questioned the economics of biofuels.
Biofuels consume more energy than they can produce in the production process, and the production cost is also higher than the petroleum fuels they replace. The cost of energy first includes the chemical fertilizer needed for planting crops and the water, steam and electricity needed for transformation. Economic costs include labor, herbicides, irrigation and machinery, and fertilizers. Compared with gasoline, ethanol with lower energy density also increases transportation costs and reduces engine efficiency. The energy and economic deficit of corn, switchgrass, lignocellulose, soybean and sunflower oil are similar. All plants need carbon dioxide for growth. When these plants are used as fuel or converted into other fuels for combustion, carbon dioxide will be released again. In this sense, the impact of biomass on carbon absorption and emission is neutral. However, this has not taken into account the energy consumption in the process of farming, fertilization, pesticide application, transportation, drying and conversion into usable fuel. Among them, chemical fertilizer is the main aspect of energy consumption. Haber-Bosch industrial nitrogen fixation and ammonia production need a lot of energy, and each ton of ammonia needs about 3,654,380,000 British thermal units. If the raw material is not natural gas, but coal, or other processes that require partial oxidation are adopted, 4 1 10,000 British thermal units are needed per ton of ammonia. The energy consumed in the production of phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer is much lower (mainly in mechanical mining, crushing and drying). Fertilizer accounts for 45% and 24% of the energy consumed in the production of bioethanol and biodiesel respectively. In the process of producing biodiesel, it is necessary to carry out transesterification with methanol, which also accounts for 35% of the energy consumed. China is setting a medium-and long-term development goal of replacing oil with bioenergy. By 2020, the scale of biofuel production will reach 20 million tons, including 0/50,000 tons of bioethanol and 5 million tons of biodiesel. If it goes well, it will reach more than 30 million tons by 2020. In 2006, China imported 65.438+0.4 billion tons of oil, and it is expected to import 200 million tons in 2065.438+00 and 300 million tons in 2020. In this way, the external dependence of China oil can be controlled below 50% by 2020, and the energy security of China can be improved. China is rich in biofuels, with 654.38 billion tons of straw and forest cutting residues, equivalent to 500 million tons of standard coal, 9 million hectares of woody oil-bearing forests and firewood forests, and more than 30 kinds of oil-bearing trees.
In the 11th Five-Year Plan, China will invest1010 billion US dollars. By 2020, bioenergy will account for 15% of the transportation energy demand, that is,120,000 tons. China also plans to plant130,000 hectares of jatropha curcas by 20 10, and extract 6 million tons of biodiesel from it. Recently, the production standard of biodiesel (BDl00) for diesel engine fuel blending was officially promulgated and implemented on May 1 2007. This will greatly promote the development of biofuel industry in China.
However, in order to avoid the threat to grain production, the development of fuel ethanol in China is also changing from grain-based raw material route to non-grain. Of course, as a means to adjust the surplus and shortage of grain supply and demand, corn fuel ethanol will still maintain a moderate scale. Generally speaking, grain can no longer be used as fuel ethanol. It will be a long-term direction to replace oil with non-edible substances. China's rural labor force is abundant, and cellulose plants can be planted in fields and corners, which is more conducive to development.
When the international oil price plummeted to more than 40 dollars in 2008, the development prospect of fuel ethanol as one of the alternative energy sources was also worrying. Fuel ethanol is clean and renewable, which can reduce the emission of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons in automobile exhaust. In the future, the focus of fuel ethanol industry in China is to reduce production costs and government subsidies. Therefore, it is a powerful means to reduce costs and increase efficiency to formulate consumption control norms and product quality technical standards in the production of biofuel ethanol and unify the production consumption quota standards of biofuel ethanol, including material consumption, water consumption and energy consumption. The future development direction of fuel ethanol industry in China is how to realize the scale of non-grain ethanol. Therefore, the key to determine the future development prospect of fuel ethanol is cost and technology.
In the future, China government will continue to moderately develop the fuel ethanol industry. During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the potential market scale of fuel ethanol in China will be greatly expanded. Judging from the production capacity of four domestic fuel ethanol producers, it is far from meeting the domestic demand for fuel ethanol in the future, and the capacity expansion of fuel ethanol plants is inevitable. Therefore, it is planned that by the end of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, the proportion of domestic ethanol gasoline consumption in the national gasoline consumption will rise to more than 50%, which means that the capacity and output of fuel ethanol in China will make a qualitative leap. China's policy support for biofuels is relatively late. In recent years, with the government's attention, biofuel technology has been rapidly upgraded, and the market competition has become increasingly fierce. By the end of 20 10, the annual profit consumption of biomass solid molding fuel in China was about 500,000 tons, the annual profit consumption of non-grain raw fuel ethanol increased by 200,000 tons, and the annual output of biodiesel was about 500,000 tons. According to the Medium-and Long-term Development Plan of Renewable Energy and the Eleventh Five-Year Plan of Renewable Energy Development, the development goals of biomass energy in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan determined by the state are: by 20 10, the annual profit consumption of biomass solid molding fuel will reach 100000 tons, the annual profit consumption of non-grain fuel ethanol will increase by 2 million tons, and the annual profit consumption of biodiesel will reach 200000 tons. It can be seen that the development scale of biofuels in China is far from the previous plan. Biomass solid fuel is only12, and non-grain fuel ethanol is only about 10% of the set target. Generally speaking, the utilization of biomass energy in China was "anticlimactic" during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, mainly because the national industrial support policy failed to keep up. By mid-April, 20 12, the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development has been submitted to the State Council, but it has not been officially released. The Plan preliminarily determines that the annual profit consumption of biofuel ethanol in China will reach 5 million tons in 20 15, which is more than double the target of the 11th Five-Year Plan. The annual profit consumption of biodiesel is 6,543,800 tons.
In order not to repeat the same mistakes during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, relevant departments in China are actively formulating countermeasures. According to the medium and long-term development plan of renewable energy, by 2020, the annual profit of biodiesel and biofuel ethanol in China will reach 2 million tons and100000 tons. However, due to the limitations of fossil energy, the development of new energy has become the energy strategy of all countries. At present, the recoverable life of crude oil in the world is about 46 years, while that in China is only 15.62 years. Developing alternative energy is an effective way to solve the shortage of energy supply in China. Although due to the shortage of raw materials and high prices, the utilization rate of biodiesel production capacity in China is low at present, and some enterprises are in a state of partial or even complete suspension of production, with the introduction of national industrial support policies, the situation that biofuels are "heated first and then cooled" will no longer appear during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, and the biodiesel industry will surely develop by leaps and bounds.