Policy support rose moderately.
20 10 No.65438+10 No.310, the seventh consecutive "No.1 document" in the new century-"Several Opinions of the Central Committee of the State Council on Strengthening Urban and Rural Development and Further Consolidating the Foundation of Agricultural and Rural Development" once again put the issue of agriculture, rural areas and farmers in the first place, becoming the seventh central document guiding the work of agriculture, rural areas and farmers since the new century. The document proposes to implement and improve the dynamic adjustment mechanism of comprehensive agricultural subsidies. In accordance with the principle of fixed stock and incremental tilt, new agricultural subsidies are appropriately tilted to large grain growers and farmers' professional cooperatives. The document said that the agricultural subsidy system and market regulation mechanism should be improved. Adhere to direct subsidies to grain farmers. Increase subsidies for improved varieties, expand the scope of potato subsidies, start subsidies for improved varieties of highland barley, and implement pilot subsidies for improved varieties of peanuts. Further increase subsidies for the purchase of agricultural machinery and tools, expand the types of subsidies, and include animal husbandry, forestry, drought-resistant and water-saving machinery and equipment into the scope of subsidies. The document also pointed out that it is necessary to implement and improve the dynamic adjustment mechanism of comprehensive agricultural subsidies. In accordance with the principle of fixed stock and incremental tilt, new agricultural subsidies are appropriately tilted to large grain growers and farmers' professional cooperatives. The document requires that agricultural subsidy policies suitable for pastoral areas, forest areas and reclamation areas be gradually improved. Strengthen the supervision and inspection of the objects, types and fund settlement of agricultural subsidies, ensure that the subsidy policy is implemented, and prohibit the use of subsidy funds to deduct farmers' contributions. Implement the minimum purchase price policy for wheat and continue to raise the minimum purchase price for rice. Expand the scale of grain reserves in sales areas. Timely adopt temporary purchasing and storage policies for corn, soybeans, rapeseed, etc., support enterprises to participate in purchasing and storage, improve the national purchasing and storage auction mechanism for agricultural products, and make good control plans for cotton, sugar, pork, etc., so as to maintain market stability and reasonable prices of agricultural products. It can be seen that the No.1 Document of the Central Committee laid a policy foundation for stabilizing grain production and ensuring farmers' income increase.
In the first half of the year, the national grain price was affected by policy support and tight supply and demand of some varieties, showing a slight upward trend. Affected by factors such as low international market prices and sufficient domestic supply, the price of edible oil showed a weak and volatile trend in the first half of the year. Although CPI rose by 3. 1% in May, it exceeded the warning line of 3% for the first time in more than a year. On the one hand, the main reason is the price increase. Because CPI was at a relatively low level in May last year, it has a lagging effect on CPI in May this year. On the other hand, the new price increase factors such as physical objects and housing prices have contributed 90% to the CPI increase, and the price increase is a structural increase. According to the analysis of the National Bureau of Statistics, from the perspective of the economic operation environment in the first half of the year, prices are generally moderate and controllable and basically stable. In the first half of the year, the consumer price index increased by 2.6%, of which 1.4% was affected by the price increase last year, and the new price increase factor was 1.2%, with a relatively moderate and stable growth rate.
Inflation expectations, the rise is obvious.
However, due to natural factors such as the drought in southwest China this spring and the worst "cold spring" in China in the past 50 years; Economic factors such as rising prices of basic products such as water, electricity and oil, agricultural products such as fertilizers and pesticides, and market speculation of hot money and "hot money" to fish in troubled waters set off a strong rising storm of domestic agricultural and sideline products, mainly garlic, ginger and mung beans, from mid-April to June, which not only became a national livelihood issue, but also caused public concern about inflation. If the first two factors only make it possible for garlic, mung beans and other agricultural products to increase prices, then market speculation factors not only turn this possibility into reality, but also play the role of price "amplifier". Facing the irrational rise of commodities, not only that, but also the prices of staple foods such as corn, wheat and rice began to rise gradually. In the face of rising staple food prices, the National Development and Reform Commission, Grain Bureau and other relevant departments have started the tender for temporary corn reserves for 20 10 since April/3. However, the weekly auction of temporary storage is 100%, and the price has not been suppressed, but has been thrown higher and higher. Since then, not only selling corn has the above situation. The state's dumping of wheat and sugar has also become a catalyst for a new round of rising, and it continues to stage a strange scene of throwing higher and higher.
In order to prevent inflation, the state has introduced a series of policies and measures to combat illegal speculation. On June 18, the relevant departments announced the Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission, the State Grain Bureau and the Ministry of Finance on Carrying out Special Inspection on Policy Grain Sales to Maintain the Order of the Grain Market. According to the circular, in order to implement the State Council's spirit of cracking down on illegal activities such as hoarding and driving up the prices of agricultural products, to ensure food supply in the market, to stabilize market prices, and to ensure that the national grain control policies are put in place, it is decided to carry out special inspections on national policy grain sales nationwide and rectify the order of the grain and oil market. The special inspection accelerated the grain output speed of traders and eased the strong bullish heart in the early stage of the market. On June 22nd, 20 10, the Ministry of Finance of People's Republic of China (PRC) and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China issued the Notice on Abolishing Export Tax Refunds for Some Merchants, and from July 5th, the export tax rebates for some commodities, including alcohol and corn starch, were cancelled. The purpose of this policy is to curb the export of domestic corn products and ensure domestic corn supply, which reflects the intention of relevant state departments to stabilize domestic grain prices.
In July, China's CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over June. The increase in food prices is the main driving factor for the increase in CPI, and the increase in agricultural products accounts for 2.3%. Food prices rose by 0.9% in July. It can be seen that the prices of agricultural products and food have increased relatively, which has a negative impact on the macro-economy.
Under the situation of increasing inflationary pressure, in early September, the National Development and Reform Commission, the State Grain Bureau, the Ministry of Finance and the Agricultural Development Bank of China jointly issued the Notice on Strictly Disciplining and Doing a Good Job in Policy Grain Delivery. In view of some problems in the process of outbound sales reflected by some localities and enterprises and national temporary storage grain storage enterprises, it is required to strictly abide by the provisions of policy grain outbound sales; Strictly implement the grain reserve policy responsibility system; Strictly implement the quality standards for policy food delivery; Increase punishment and supervision. Fundamentally solve the problem of difficult storage and ensure the implementation of the national grain purchase and sale policy and various macro-control measures. On September 29, the website of the State Grain Administration reported that it was required to ensure market supply and stabilize the market price of edible vegetable oil. After research by relevant state departments, edible vegetable oil will be temporarily stored in some countries where the grain wholesale market is publicly auctioned.
In order to prevent inflation, the Bank of China announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points from 20 10/20. This is the first time that the People's Bank of China has used interest rate instruments to adjust its monetary policy after a lapse of 34 months, which indicates that the moderately loose monetary policy is facing a major direction choice and the liquidity is beginning to show signs of tightening. However, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 4.4% year-on-year during the period of 20 10 and 10, reaching a two-year high and 0.8 percentage point higher than that in September. Among them, food prices rose 10. 1%, and non-food prices rose 1.6%. It can be seen that strong inflation expectations and successive natural disasters have made the market bullish sentiment unprecedentedly high, and the macro policy has not changed substantially. During this period, although the state has continuously introduced new control measures, it has failed to stop the overall increase in agricultural product prices. The real turning point of policy regulation appeared in June 20 1 10.
Policy "combination boxing" controls income
In view of the price problem concerned by all sectors of society, the Ministry of Commerce, together with relevant departments, increased the centralized distribution of grain, continued to crack down on market speculation, and indicated that administrative measures would be used to limit market prices when necessary. In June 165438+ 10, the "combination boxing" of policy regulation was played.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasized price stability three times in a row in two days. This time, the focus of price stability is the necessities of life, mainly agricultural products.
165438+1October 4th, the State Grain Administration announced the detailed rules for the supervision and inspection of autumn grain purchase. In the Notice on Carrying out the Supervision and Inspection of 20 10 Autumn Grain Purchase, operators engaged in the purchase, processing and sales of grain, especially japonica rice, corn and other key varieties, are required to check the highest inventory of commercial grain of enterprises door by door and regularly. In addition, during the autumn grain purchase period, the grain purchase qualifications of various grain purchasers were comprehensively verified. Those who fail to obtain the purchasing qualification in accordance with the regulations to engage in grain purchasing activities should be resolutely banned; For those who have obtained the acquisition qualification but no longer meet the requirements or fail to fulfill the prescribed obligations, their acquisition qualification shall be suspended or cancelled according to the circumstances.
165438+ 10/5 The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the Notice on Further Strengthening Risk Prevention and Supervision in the Futures Market, and agricultural futures successively issued policies such as increasing the margin rate and canceling the preferential handling fee.
165438+1October 17, the the State Council executive meeting adopted four major regulatory measures, including ensuring supply, increasing subsidies, strengthening regulation and strengthening supervision.
On June165438+1October 19, the website of the State Grain Administration released a message that the state would arrange some bidding for the sale of temporary edible vegetable oil; 165438+1October 19 the State Council issued the notice of the State Council on stabilizing the general level of consumer prices to ensure the basic livelihood of the people. Take 16 measures to further improve price regulation and supervision, stabilize market prices, and effectively protect people's basic livelihood. It is an urgent task to stabilize the price situation and the overall level of consumer prices.
165438+1On October 26th, the state held a bidding meeting for temporary storage of edible oil and auctioned rapeseed oil 100400 tons. On February 3, 65438, the state invited bids to sell 300,000 tons of temporary storage soybeans. A series of policies reflect the country's determination to curb inflation and its policy implementation attitude.
From the end of 1 1 to February 20th, 1, the State Council General Office, Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments formed six the State Council inspection teams to supervise and inspect the work of 18 provinces and cities, focusing on investigating and understanding the overall price level, supply and demand of important commodities and price changes in relevant regions.
It can be seen that the specific measures of the state to regulate prices are in the implementation period, the agricultural product market may be regulated by policies, and the price increase momentum may be curbed. Under the pressure of policy regulation, the domestic grain and oil market is under obvious pressure. Under the intensive control of the state, the prices of domestic agricultural products have been quickly controlled, especially in the futures market. Under the pressure of policy regulation, major agricultural products have been sharply adjusted back, and some varieties have been adjusted back by 30% from the high point. The overall upward trend of agricultural product prices has been effectively curbed, and the national policy regulation has achieved phased results.
After entering June 5438+065438+ 10, the grain and oil market is basically dominated by policy factors, showing obvious policy market characteristics. The market has been shrouded in the atmosphere of raising interest rates. On the evening of 19, Bank of China announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions to 10 on October 20th. The benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits of financial institutions was raised by 0.25 percentage points, from the current 2.25% to 2.50%; The benchmark interest rate for one-year loans was raised by 0.25 percentage points, from the current 5.3 1% to 5.56%. Although the interest rate hike seems to make commodity bulls breathe a sigh of relief, it shows that China has entered the interest rate hike cycle, and the monetary policy has accelerated to return to normalization. The grain and oil market belongs to the scope of policy regulation.
The policy runs through and the box runs.
On the whole, 20 10, national policy regulation runs through the market. With the rise and fall of market prices, domestic policies are constantly adjusted, which plays an important role in regulating the market. For the market outlook, the influence of domestic policies still plays an important role. With 10, Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party 165438 hinted that China will implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy on 201,which indicates that the era of "moderate easing" may end. The central rural work conference will ensure the effective supply of major agricultural products and strive to maintain a reasonable level of agricultural product prices, which will be included in the key tasks of agricultural and rural work next year, highlighting the central government's emphasis on strengthening the regulation of agricultural product prices. Under the background of the country's strict control of inflation, the interaction between policy and market mechanism will continue at 20 1 1, and it is expected that the market will still show a "box operation" trend.