Differences between long and short will not change the super acceleration of the bull market
October 17, 2007 17:07 Source: Hexun.com Author: Beijing Premiere
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Hexun Special
Accurately grasping market trends and accurately capturing World Bank hot spots are the biggest features of this column. It was clearly pointed out in the early stage that the market is accelerating into a super bull market. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has exceeded 6100 points today. The recommended ICBC, China Unicom, Aluminum Bao, Wuliangye, Sinopec, etc. have continued to hit record highs, bringing rich profits to investors who follow this column. profit.
After the Shanghai Stock Index opened sharply lower today, it showed a strong and volatile pattern throughout the day. There was pressure near 6100 points, and there was support below 6000 points. There were certain differences between the long and short sides, but the bulls still took the initiative. Right, and finally closed with a small negative line. At the same time, the trading volume shrank, and the amount in the Shanghai stock market was less than 130 billion yuan. It can be concluded that the acceleration of the super bull market will continue. After a brief shock, the Shanghai stock index will continue in the future. Attack upwards and hit new all-time highs. During the session, the hot spots were still not concentrated or prominent, and the strong products in the early stage were differentiated. The two major sectors of banking and real estate were adjusted, becoming the biggest pressure on the index fluctuation. However, China Unicom and Sinopec continued to strengthen, maintaining the index, and the 28th phenomenon There has been some differentiation, and some varieties that have fallen continuously in the early stage have begun to rebound, especially some of the blue-chip varieties that were mistakenly killed, showing the characteristics of rebounding with heavy volume. Therefore, we believe that under the background of the bull market, continuing to hold shares is still the best strategy.
Focus 1: There are differences between long and short at the integer mark, and short-term shocks will not change the bull market pattern.
Yesterday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index set a new historical record, breaking through 6,100 points during the session. However, the trading volume shrank, falling from the level of 190 billion yuan to 160 billion yuan, indicating that there was a panic in incremental funds after the continuous rise. With high psychology, short-term profit-making chips have begun to sell off, creating a certain amount of pressure. The shrinking volume also indicates the stability of the stock-holding mentality. Medium and long-term chips have no intention to sell, and after breaking through 6,000 points, a powerful multi-party offensive It also strengthens investors' optimistic view of the market outlook. More and more investors have adopted the operation strategy of buying on dips. The market shows that the index has encountered strong support when it goes down. Every time it goes down, there is an inflow of funds. Therefore, we can conclude that above 6,000 points, although there are differences between long and short, these are only short-term technical differences. The pattern of continued strong rise in the medium and long term has not changed at all, and the Shanghai Index will continue to rise in the future.
Focus 2: First-line blue-chip indicators are diverging, and second-line oversold stocks are beginning to make moves.
What put greater pressure on the index today were early popular stocks, such as leading stocks in banks and real estate, ICBC, China Merchants Bank, etc. took the initiative to adjust. Vanke fell after rising high, and stocks that have strengthened recently such as China Shenhua ( (601088 Quotes, Stock Bar)), Yangtze Electric Power, etc. also have short-term pressure. Due to their large weight, they played the biggest role in promoting the index's plunge in early trading. However, at the same time, strong performance this week such as China Unicom and Petrochemical Individual stocks fluctuated strongly, especially Sinopec. There was obviously a large inflow of funds. It can be considered that due to different heavyweight stocks starting at different times, differentiation has begun to occur today. This also determines that the index will not show a clear direction in the near future. The shock is a Main tone, but at the same time, some stocks that have been adjusted continuously in the early stage have started to quickly start or rebound strongly, such as Shanghai Airport, etc., and some stocks that have been continuously oversold in the early stage have even experienced continuous daily limit. It can be considered that as The probability of the index entering into shocks increases, and the index stocks will also enter shocks, but individual stocks that have made adjustments in the early stage will usher in golden operating opportunities.
Focus 3: Maintain confidence in holding shares and wait for the bull market, and patiently wait for the arrival of rising individual stocks.
Since September, the differentiation of individual stocks has been extremely serious. Quite a few stocks have continued to fall, even by more than 20% or more. Quite a few investors have endured the torture of being trapped, but we believe that, The current bull market is accelerating. Although the large-cap index stocks are outstanding, this situation will not last for too long. With the continuous strengthening of bull market thinking, investor confidence will also expand, and the market conditions of individual stocks will be large. Therefore, as an investor, it is a better operating strategy to strengthen your confidence in holding shares, wait for the bull market, and patiently wait for the rise of individual stocks, instead of chasing the rise and killing the fall, nor continuing to sell the fall after being locked in. It is not a matter of frequent operations. If you have firm confidence in holding shares, you will surely be able to usher in the profits of the bull market.
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Shanghai stock market stands firm at 6000 and Shenzhen stock market looks forward to 20000
October 17, 2007 16:42 Source: Hexun.com author ：Wuhan New Rand
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Hexun Special
News: Create conditions for more people to have property income
Seventeenth National Congress Report For the first time, it was proposed to "create conditions for more people to have property income", which aroused the attention of the representatives attending the meeting. Chen Xiaolong, director of the Household Division of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that my country’s residents’ property income has great potential for growth. With the rapid development of the national economy, the expansion of investment channels, and the increase in people's wealth, residents' property income has grown very fast in recent years. The growth rate in 2007 is expected to be faster. "The rapid increase in property income will be a major trend."
After the increase in the deposit reserve ratio and the issuance of targeted central bank bills, the central bank has resorted to new tricks to alleviate excess liquidity. It is reported that the central bank has issued a notice to some deposit-taking financial institutions and plans to absorb funds from some non-public market primary dealers as special deposits with deposit terms of 3 months and 1 year. In terms of time, the processing time for special deposits is October 23, which coincides with the increase in the deposit reserve ratio and payment on the 25th, and the expected issuance of PetroChina A shares at the end of the month. Therefore, the market capital is likely to be experienced at the end of the month. A bigger test.
Financial aspect: Blue-chip correction hot spots are still active
Stimulated by the news in early trading, the aerospace sector once strengthened, with China Satellite, Aerospace Communications, and Aerospace Technology all rising by more than 5% , other aerospace stocks such as aerospace power, rocket stocks, and aerospace morning light also have certain gains. This sector is mainly stimulated by news, and we remain cautious about its sustainability. ZTE, the leading 3G stock, hit the daily limit, causing collective agitation in 3G stocks, such as BOCOM and Orient Communications. However, due to the weak linkage of the sector, the overall growth of the sector was limited. The performance of the chemical sector was relatively outstanding today. Nanfeng Chemical and Jianfeng Chemical rose by the daily limit. Sichuan Chemical Co., Ltd. and Juhua Chemical Co., Ltd. also increased by more than 9%. The strength of the chemical industry sector has a certain relationship with the mid-term performance increase. From today's performance of the entire sector Judging from the trend, the possibility of continued strength in the short term cannot be ruled out. Therefore, we can still pay appropriate attention to some of the stocks with outstanding performance. Energy stocks also performed to a certain extent. Shenergy shares once hit the daily limit during the session, driving Huaneng International, Jiantou Energy and others to rise collectively. The sector's rise is limited, and the market outlook is unlikely to continue rising. Looking at the decline list, Mianshi Shares and Anhui Electric Power, which have performed well recently, both fell by more than 8%, while Hanshang Group and SI Development showed a downward trend. Although other stocks also made certain adjustments, the number of stocks falling was significantly reduced.
Technical aspect: Strong consolidation, Shenzhen outlook 20,000 points
On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index did not continue Tuesday’s strength, but used a high small negative line to fill the gap on Tuesday. After stepping back on the 5-day moving average, the rising pattern of the stock index becomes more healthy. Shenzhen showed a trend that deviated from the Shanghai market in early trading. The Shenzhen Component Index fluctuated all the way higher in early trading, reaching an intraday high of 19,551 points. Although it did not set a new historical high, the strength of the market was evident. It is obvious that the two markets are diverging. After the Shanghai Composite Index successfully reached the integer mark of 6,000 points, the Shenzhen Component Index is salivating at the integer mark of 20,000 points. In addition, the convening of the 17th National Congress also brings opportunities for speculation to sectors such as the military industry and agriculture. Under such circumstances, the Shenzhen Component Index is likely to attack 20,000 points in the short term.
Therefore, in terms of operation, we can pay appropriate attention to the stocks in the Shenzhen market, and we can also pay short-term attention to some agricultural and military concept stocks.
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The market will also be poised to consolidate around 6,000 points
October 17, 2007 16:03 Source: Author of Hexun.com: Long Yun
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Today, the market is still consolidating in a narrow range near the 5-day moving average. In the end, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 6036.28 points, a drop of 55.78 points. Today's Shanghai stock market transaction volume was 136.197 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 19288.29 points, down 70.15 points, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's full-day transaction volume was 67.085 billion yuan. Today's trading volume in both cities shrank slightly compared with yesterday.
According to news analysis, after the increase in the deposit reserve ratio and the issuance of targeted central bank bills, the central bank has resorted to new tactics to alleviate excess liquidity.
The central bank has issued a notice to some depository financial institutions to absorb funds from some non-public market primary dealers as special deposits, with deposit terms of three months and one year. It has been confirmed from a number of city commercial banks that the central bank will launch special deposits in the near future, intending to absorb funds from some non-public market primary dealers, mainly city commercial banks and credit unions, to absorb liquidity in the banking system. The interest rate of this kind of special deposit is the same as the current interest rate of central bank bills of the same period, which are 2.91% and 3.44% respectively. The proposed subscription amount shall be reported by each institution on its own, and the specific processing time is October 23. The so-called special deposit is also a form of deposit. Financial institutions deposit funds in the central bank and the central bank pays interest. In the context of relatively abundant liquidity, this is an effective liquidity management method. The introduction of special deposits shows that the central bank's liquidity recovery tools are becoming more diversified and the scope of institutional lock-in has expanded. This move means that institutions not covered by the issuance of targeted central bank bills will be included in the scope of the central bank's liquidity contraction. Adjusting the reserve ratio is the same for everyone, but the scope of issuance of directional central bank bills is fixed and limited, so the central bank considers using special deposits to absorb liquidity, which should be a complement to open market operations. In addition to effectively alleviating excess liquidity, special deposits will also play a role in guiding the reasonable growth of credit funds. In 1987 and 1988, the central bank twice opened special deposits of 5 billion yuan each to rural credit cooperatives and the Guangdong Branch of the central bank, both with the purpose of adjusting the credit structure. Restarting this business after nearly 20 years, the central bank’s goal of regulating credit is still obvious. At present, the central bank has not announced the total scale of special deposits, but the market generally expects that the total scale should not exceed the issuance of one targeted central bank bill, which is about 100 billion yuan. However, in terms of time, the processing time for special deposits is October 23, which coincides with the increase in the deposit reserve ratio and payment on the 25th, and the expected issuance of PetroChina A shares at the end of the month. Therefore, market funds are likely to be at the end of the month. Go through a bigger test.
Disk analysis shows that the coal and oil sector, which was very active yesterday, suffered a large decline. Its leading product, China Shenhua ((601088 Quotes, Stock Bar)), will be included in the Shanghai Composite and other Shanghai Composite Series Indexes on the 23rd of this month. CSI 300 and other CSI series indices. It is worth noting that the recent characteristics of sector rotation are relatively obvious, and hot market sectors switch quickly. Real estate and banking stocks, which were the top gainers yesterday, are at the forefront of declines today, while the Chinese-headed sectors that performed well on Monday also fell across the board today. The short-term market will remain high and volatile. Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics will release a series of data such as September price index, urban fixed asset investment, third-quarter GDP, retail sales, and industrial output value, which will also increase the market's expectations for macroeconomic regulation. Therefore, investors should pay attention to controlling their positions, keep abreast of market hot spots, pay more attention to some relatively undervalued varieties, and avoid some varieties that lack substantial performance support. In addition, some aerospace and military industry stocks also performed well, with China Satellite and Aerospace Technology all seeing good gains. It is worth noting that recently, brokerage stocks have gradually disclosed their third-quarter reports, and their performance has increased significantly, which has stimulated the strengthening of stock prices. Currently, among the 11 major military industry groups, except China National Nuclear Industry Construction Group, all other major military industry groups have listed companies in varying numbers, but the assets of the listed companies under each group account for a small proportion of the group's assets. In other words , most of the assets of major military industrial groups are outside listed companies. Especially in the era of full circulation, the possibility of making listed companies bigger and stronger through asset injection in the future still exists. Investors can pay close attention to the trends of relevant stocks. Varieties that were stagnant in the early stage or had a deep stock price gradually became active and became a hot spot for some short-term funds to pursue. It is expected that oversold stocks will still be active in recent trading days. However, affected by the rest of indicator stocks and PetroChina, they may rise in October. Affected by the issuance factors in the second half of the month, the market's short-term rapid upward momentum will slow down after a continuous upward surge. While holding high-quality varieties, grasp the rotation between various sectors, adhere to the stock selection criteria of value growth plus valuation advantages, and pay special attention to some companies with strong sustainable development capabilities and high growth certainty.
Comprehensive analysis shows that the market of the two cities showed a pattern of high fluctuations, heavyweight stocks performed sluggishly, and index stocks showed certain requirements for rest in the short term after continuous rises, which will slow down the market upward speed to a certain extent. and room for upside. In the short term, the market will continue to consolidate around 6,000 points, laying a good foundation for the market to move higher in the future.
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