Huitong March 30th, com-On Thursday (August 29th), the US initial application and GDP data improved, which boosted the Fed's austerity expectations. Affected by this, the US dollar index hit a three-week high of 82.06. Non-US currencies fell across the board against the US dollar, but the decline was different. In intraday trading, Federal Reserve official Lake made hawkish remarks, but the market reaction was dull. It is uncertain whether the Fed will start tightening in September, and the market focus has shifted to the non-farm payrolls data in August and the situation in Syria.
The GDP data of the United States is strong, and the dollar as a whole is stronger.
According to data released by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time last week was slightly better than expected. The data shows that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week of August 24th in the United States was 3,365,438+0,000, and it is expected to be 332,000. At the same time, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the previous week was revised to 337,000, with an initial value of 336,000.
According to the data released by the US Department of Commerce (DOC) on Thursday (August 29th), the second revised value of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of the United States deserves a substantial revision, which is better than expected. Export growth and import decline significantly reduced the trade deficit and made positive contributions to the quarterly growth of GDP.
Despite the drag of fiscal austerity measures, better-than-expected GDP may enhance the market's confidence that the US economy is coming out of the severe winter. The reason why the revised value is higher than the previous initial value 1.7% is that the recent growth rate of American exports has reached the fastest level in more than two years. Many economists predict that the U.S. economy will accelerate further in the second half of the year, because fiscal austerity measures have eased the drag on the economy.
The Fed has hinted that it will start to reduce its bond purchases later this year, but it depends on economic data. The country's industrial output and durable goods orders in July were lower than market expectations, and economists said that these data will only affect the first reduction in the size of bond purchases. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time and the US GDP data released today are both improving. In the current situation of paying attention to economic data, this undoubtedly increases the probability that the Fed will reduce QE at its September meeting.
Brian Jones, an economist at Socié té Gé né rale, said that the U.S. economy is improving significantly, and economic growth accelerated in the second quarter. The Economist predicts that American GDP will increase by 2.5% in 20 13 years. The revised GDP is retrospective data and is generally ignored. However, the timing of the Fed's "reduction" of stimulus policy depends on economic data. Therefore, the revision of GDP in the second quarter of the United States raised the expectation that the Federal Reserve would begin to reduce quantitative easing (QE).
After the strong data, the US dollar strengthened as a whole, but non-US currencies all fell to varying degrees. Among them, the euro, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen fell sharply against the US dollar, while the pound and commodity currencies fell relatively little. Weak unemployment data in Europe and Germany and a slight decline in inflation data have depressed the euro. In addition, the European and American stock markets rose during the day, indicating that the market sentiment was stable, which suppressed the safe-haven Swiss franc and Japanese yen to some extent, while the risk currency was supported to some extent.
The influence of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric is limited, and it is still uncertain whether the Fed will tighten in September.
During the meeting, Federal Reserve official Lake made a speech. As a traditional hawk, his position is still tough. He seems to be the first person to make it clear that he wants to reduce the scale of quantitative easing in September. Today, he made it clear that the conditions for reducing the scale of quantitative easing have been met.
However, because he has no right to vote this year, and he has been a tough hawk at every Fed meeting since 20 12, his austerity remarks did not surprise the market, so the market did not make a clear response to his speech.
Lake stressed on Thursday that in September last year, when the current third round of quantitative easing measures (QE3) was just launched, he already felt that the situation was wrong and put forward corresponding objections. In fact, from last year 10, he began to think about how to gradually end QE3. Now, he feels that there is reason to believe that the time is finally ripe for the Fed to reduce the size of QE.
It is difficult to judge whether the US data released on Thursday (August 29th) is strong enough for the Fed to start reducing its bond purchases. However, judging from the yield of US 10-year government bonds, the bond market seems to think that the economic data is "strong enough". The market focus now turns to the August non-farm payrolls data released on September 6th. This will be the last non-farm payrolls report before the next Fed policy meeting.
As September approaches, it is uncertain whether the Fed will start to reduce the size of its bond purchases as expected by the market. However, the recent outbreak of chemical and biological weapons in Syria has added a layer of resistance to the Fed's withdrawal from quantitative easing, and the Fed's austerity expectations may be postponed due to the Syrian crisis.
During the day, the yield of US Treasury bonds rose, stock futures rose slightly, and most of the global stock markets rose, because the time and extent of the attack on Syria were uncertain.
At present, the United Nations has sent an investigation team into Syria to investigate the use of chemical weapons. No one knows when the investigation report will be released, but some people speculate that it will last for a week. And it is uncertain whether they will mention who will be responsible for it, even if they find evidence of chemical attack.
How long will America have to wait? At present, it is reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel had a telephone discussion on the Syrian crisis, and the Russian government indicated that both sides supported a diplomatic solution to the Syrian crisis. According to the latest news of the day, British Prime Minister David Cameron's proposal to use force against Syria failed with a slight disadvantage in the lower house of parliament.
Traders seem to think that if the Syrian attack is largely symbolic and its destructive power is limited (it will not lead to regime change), then its additional downward pressure on the stock market is very small.
However, if the tension in Syria continues to escalate, its crisis will spread to Europe. At present, the second-tier countries in Europe have been affected. This will affect the recovery of the euro zone economy, and then hinder the recovery of the global economy. Therefore, the Fed has no choice but to continue its monetary stimulus plan.