As we all know, due to the COVID-19-Ukrainian war, the international oil price has gradually increased since May 2020. In March this year, the futures crude oil reached as high as $0/33 per barrel, which once touched the ceiling of the wholesale price of domestic refined oil.
Injured by the rising oil price, the price of gasoline and diesel in China has also been rising all the way, from the initial one liter in 6 yuan to one liter in 10 yuan. At present, the price of No.92 diesel is still around 9.25 yuan, which is still on the upper side in historical time.
The middle and late June can be said to be a big turning point. With the expected increase in interest rates and the warming of the Federal Reserve, international crude oil prices gradually turned down. On June 15, Powell announced that he would raise interest rates by 75 basis points, and the international oil price fell, which started this round of decline.
Even so, on July 5th, the international oil price fell below the positive integer mark of 100 USD, which surprised many people. How can the oil price fall below 100 USD? This is chosen by three main factors.
Although the Federal Reserve recently announced the largest rate hike since 1 1, with a one-time rate hike of 75 basis points, keeping the federal government's annual interest rate between 1.5 and 1.75%, the inflation rate in the United States remains high. The latest data shows that the inflation rate in the United States reached 8.6% this month, which is 2% of the expected effect of the Federal Reserve.
In order to resist economic stagflation, the sales market believes that the Fed is likely to keep the pace of raising interest rates. It is predicted that the US federal interest rate may exceed 4%. According to this forecast and analysis, the indoor space for RMB interest rate hike is still very large, which has a great direct impact on the peripheral futures sales market and inhibits the rise of oil prices.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the sales market was originally expected to be completed in three months, but it has been half a year and there is still no sign of ending. With the intensification of regional contradictions, the blockade of Russia by the United States and the European Union has already spread from electricity to commodities such as gold. Many countries in the European Union refused to buy Russian oil and natural gas, while the United States secretly bought cheap oil from Russia, which put pressure on oil-producing countries such as the Middle East and released domestic crude oil reserves, which had a certain direct impact on the international oil price market demand.
The United States uses the harm caused by the contradiction between Russia and Ukraine to manipulate oil prices, so as to maintain the manipulation of oil and gas by the dollar, which can maintain the dominant position of the dollar in society to a certain extent, and oil will fluctuate with the trend of the dollar.
Although all parts of the world are trying to solve the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, so far, COVID-19 infection is still a major obstacle to the recovery of the world economy, and the persistent genetic variation of virus infection has cast a shadow on the recovery of the world economy. A new mutation of Omicron strain with serial number BA.2.75 was detected in 8 countries including India, Japan and the United States. This virus infection with persistent genetic variation has improved the risk aversion of the sales market and endangered the economic recovery of the world.
According to the survey, the COVID-19 epidemic and COVID-19 epidemic in COVID-19 caused property losses of 5.8 trillion yuan to 880 million US dollars worldwide, equivalent to 6.4% to 9.7% of the world gross national product. The COVID-19 epidemic in COVID-19 has resulted in the loss of 255 million jobs and life expectancy of more than 20.5 million years.
In short, the rise in crude oil prices at that time was closely related to the stimulus plan of the world economy. Under the premise of sluggish economic recovery, it is difficult to maintain economic prosperity simply by printing money. The US dollar interest rate hike has accumulated the epidemic in COVID-19, COVID-19 and the contradiction between Russia and Ukraine, making the oil price of high-tech enterprises lose its support point. It is not surprising that the international oil price falls below the price of 100.