The first sentence is to care about national affairs and pay attention to policy orientation.
As China's capital market is still an emerging market, this is the basic starting point of our investment activities. For example, to do stocks and funds, we must pay attention to what major events have happened in the country recently and whether the policy orientation has changed. 1996 12 15, People's Daily published a commentator's article when the stock market ignored the management's 12 gold medals, pointing out that there was excessive speculation in the stock market and demanded further regulation. The Shanghai Composite Index went from 65438+February 1 1 for 3 days, with a drop of 3 1%. Stocks with daily limit are everywhere. On June 4th, 2008, 65438+ 10 14, the Securities Times published relevant articles, demanding that China stock market be viewed from an international perspective. At that time, A+H had been negotiated, and the stock market changed that day. I told my friends to throw away all my stocks and funds. Unexpectedly, that day was our last great opportunity to escape from the peak.
I am a serious and responsible person. In the past few years, I have compiled the memorabilia of China stock market. From 1984 to 2008, I think all the important events have been sorted out. Reading this memorabilia can witness the development and evolution of our stock market. In my opinion, the China stock market is not necessarily a barometer of the national economy, and many markets are linked to political events. For example, when Deng Xiaoping died on1February 9, 1997 19, investors panicked. The next day, the stock almost opened at the limit, but in a few minutes, it turned red across the board and closed at the limit. Another example is1May 9, 999, when the US military mistakenly bombed our embassy in Yugoslavia. This incident developed into an influential "5. 19" market. Many friends don't understand the truth. I think reading newspapers and listening to central documents must ask one more question. There are many major decisions made by the central government, all of which have certain backgrounds. Don't you emphasize "maintaining stability" now? In fact, when major events happen, stability is needed. It used to be like this, it is like this now, and it will be like this in the future. Once the event has passed, the opposite trend will appear. There is a saying in the stock market: good things and bad things, bad things and good things!
Another point is also very important. We investors must pay close attention to the national interests. I always think that the national interest comes first. After July this year, the management suspended the IPO. According to my years of experience, there will be no big market in the securities market without financing function, so why should we be stupid in this market without financing function?
The second sentence is to learn technical analysis and master the law of capital operation.
Shanghai is the birthplace of capital market, especially after the establishment of Shanghai Stock Exchange, technical analysis has been paid more and more attention by ordinary investors. For example, you can talk a little about the relationship between quantity and price, K-line language and wave theory. I think technical indicator analysis is a compulsory course for stock investors, and there are many technical indicators, such as the most basic MACD, KDJ, W& etc. R, OBV, bohr, etc. But all these technical indicators are inseparable from the relationship between supply and demand. If there is a qualitative change in the relationship between supply and demand, there will be a trend change, and all technical indicators will change with the trend. 1may, 1996 17, due to the treasury bond futures incident, the market was closed, and the futures market funds poured into the stock market. Because there was no price limit at that time, the market rose by 3 1% that day. For another example, on the one hand, it was affected by the financial crisis, on the other hand, a number of central enterprises represented by PetroChina went public and sold in large quantities. However, in the case of imbalance between supply and demand, the stock market fell from 6 124 to 1664 within one year, a drop of 80%. In short, I think these technical indicators are very important, but they are only tools for short-term trend analysis. There used to be a saying that figures were drawn by institutions, but the volume of transactions would not deceive people. Now the trading volume is also fraudulent, especially when the fund company manages several fund accounts, which can be reversed with each other and the trading volume will come out. Therefore, people who do trend investment like me don't look at the daily line very much, but mainly care about weekly changes and policy orientation. You can look at the weekly K-line chart. Although the MACD column is a small red column in recent weeks, the MACD indicator line is still far below the 0-axis, so this market is unlikely to improve. In addition, there is a technical index XS (13, 13, 13,5) called Shi Xue Channel, which is available in Great Wisdom Stock Software. Among the four lines, the upper two lines represent resistance lines and the lower two lines are support lines, which can be used as short-term reference.
Third, pay attention to the investment rhythm and adjust the investment mentality.
This is very important in capital operation, and it is difficult for ordinary investors to do it. I often see some friends online. When stocks go up, they chase them up without knowing the risks, and they fall, and they kill them without knowing the opportunities. There are fewer and fewer books, and I often regret it but don't remember the lesson. This is a common problem for most investors. In addition, there will be no rest in the capital market, no other investment channels, and a soft spot for stocks, which is also very dangerous. In June of 0 1 year, the State Council issued the Interim Measures for the Administration of Reducing State-owned Shares and Raising Social Security Funds. /kloc-in June of 0/4, the Shanghai stock market peaked at 2245 points, and then went down all the way, starting a bear market that lasted for several years. At that time, I told several good friends that the stock market was almost the same and the real estate had policy support. Why don't we do real estate? At that time, I took out all 200,000 yuan in the stock market and bought three medium-sized apartments (only 900 yuan per square meter), but my friend didn't listen to my advice, sold two houses and put 320,000 yuan into the stock market. In 2005, my 200,000 yuan became 6,543.8+2,000 yuan, and his 320,000 yuan became 6,543.8+2,000 yuan.
In 2006, I transferred the money from selling my house to the stock market and bought a closed-end fund with a 40% discount. It was not until the policy changed in early June 2007 (1 1) that I stopped trading stocks, and I wrote several posts on the Internet, stating that the stock market had peaked, either playing new shares or leaving the stock market, and rest was the best investment (wait patiently and wait for the opportunity).
In a word, I invest according to the basic principles of the law of value. Didn't the textbook say that prices always fluctuate around value? ! The real economy must operate according to this law, and so must the virtual economy. That is, people have mental problems, and greed and fear often make people forget this market rule.
In the course of life, there are few historic opportunities. I think there will be more popular investment opportunities in China, an emerging market in the future. All the stocks are in circulation, and there must be opportunities when the global economy starts to improve. In addition, the RMB is freely convertible, and there will be great opportunities for exchange rate exchange.
The above personal views were written in 2008, which is still for your reference.