In 20 13, the global central bank represented by the Federal Reserve will release more money than in 20 12 to stimulate the economy to get out of the downturn as soon as possible. That is to say, the expansion of credit money in 20 13 years is still a process of substantial fermentation of credit money bubble compared with the growth or recovery of the real economy. We are at the center of a new round of currency war, not on the edge. Japan releases 13 trillion yen every month, nearly twice as much as the Federal Reserve, which is a further catalyst for the currency war. In this context, there is no reason not to be optimistic about the gold and silver market after the 20 13 break.
The minutes of the meeting of the Federal Reserve on June 4th, 65438 showed that the Federal Reserve was not confident in QE3. It is only the short-term reaction of the market to the minutes of the Federal Reserve in June 5438+February. Compared with the minutes, we should believe the direct statement made by the Federal Reserve after the interest rate meeting in February and June. The minutes of the meeting show that the differences within the Fed on the quantitative easing target are increasing. The minutes only describe the existence of this difference, but the result is still that the power to maintain ultra-loose quantification is dominant. At least 20 13, even before 20 14, there is no need to worry about the Fed's contraction easing. If "Minute" is described as a narrative recording the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June+February, 5438, then the "statement" after the interest rate meeting in June+February, 5438 undoubtedly represents the "soul" or central idea of this article.
The irrational reaction to the "minutes" of June 5438+February only reflects the negative part relative to the gold market. 20 13 The Federal Reserve's June meeting on interest rates 5438+ 10 almost completely reiterated the views of the February meeting of 13, and once again strengthened the target threshold of the Fed's monetary policy regulation, that is, easing will continue at least until the unemployment rate in the United States drops to 6.5% and the inflation index is lower than 2.5%. Special emphasis is placed on the unemployment rate threshold of 6.5%. Regarding the inflation index, the Fed has indicated that it can tolerate it moderately, which is believed to be true. It is impossible for them to show an irresponsible attitude of ignoring inflation.
According to the data of the Gold Association in the third quarter, the physical demand for gold is not very good. The data of the Gold Association on the physical demand mainly comes from the consumption and production demand in the jewelry and industrial fields, especially the jewelry consumption demand. This kind of physical demand, like the supply of mineral gold in a golden year, is a relatively rigid indicator. But there is also a flexible physical demand, that is, physical investment demand. Once investors find that investing in gold can produce obvious money-making effect, it will stimulate investors to buy gold bars, gold coins and other products for investment, and even jewelry consumption will further intensify. Therefore, the sluggish demand for physical consumption from the Gold Association is not terrible, because 20 13 investors have not discovered the investment value of gold, and once they find it, it will inevitably blow out.
Since 2009, the trend of gold price has been dominated by investment demand, rather than physical consumption demand such as jewelry and industrial gold. Looking at the fundamentals of the gold market, we can keep a close eye on whether the global credit currency bubble is expanding or shrinking relative to the real economy, and we also need to pay attention to whether gold itself has produced an obvious staged bubble, which is the "avenue" for investing in gold.
In 20 13 years, the physical demand and investment demand of gold will change greatly compared with this year. Once the money-making effect of gold is discovered, the investment demand will far exceed the physical consumption demand, which will happen in 20 13 years, although this situation has not been clearly reflected in 20 12 years. Six reasons for the bursting of the gold price bubble
1. When there are serious economic, financial and geopolitical risks, the price of gold will rise. Think about the "financial doomsday" scenario. But gold has not become such a safe investment. During the financial crisis in 2008-2009, the price of gold fell sharply.
2. When there is a high inflation risk, the spot gold price performs best. At this time, gold is sought after because it is considered to hedge against inflation risks. However, after the large-scale implementation of active monetary policy by many central banks in the world, global inflation is still at a low level, and the inflation rate is still further decreasing. Commodity prices have also been adjusted downwards.
Spot gold will not provide investors with income. Now that the global economy is recovering and the returns provided by other assets to investors are increasing, who needs gold? Since 2009, the market performance of gold has been "greatly" inferior to that of stocks.
As the market thinks that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will stop implementing quantitative easing monetary policy and zero interest rate policy, the real interest rate has risen. When the actual income of cash and bonds is negative and still decreasing, it is the time to buy gold, which is not the case.
5. Countries with high debt ratios have not played a role in keeping investors away from the debt they issued and investing in gold. In fact, many governments in these countries have large gold reserves, and they may sell these reserves to reduce government debt.
6. American political conservatives have made such a big hype about gold that this hype has started to backfire. In the eyes of the far right, only gold can hedge against the government's plot to deprive ordinary people of their wealth. From the international scene, the international market's concerns about the weak global economy and slowing oil demand, as well as rumors that Cyprus will sell 40 tons of gold, triggered a wave of gold selling. New york gold futures, which closed this weekend, plunged 4. 1% to close at 150 1 USD per ounce. Compared with the highest point of 20 1 1, it dropped by 22%.
Some insiders in China also reminded investors that whether gold is "off the altar" or just a "technical correction" can only be judged by time. However, the short-term decline in gold prices is very obvious, and investors still need to be very cautious.
Five reasons for the sharp fall of gold price
Analysts believe that there are a series of factors that lead to the decline in gold prices.
Goldman Sachs said in the report that despite the resurgence of risk aversion in the euro zone and disappointing US economic data, the price of gold has not changed much in the past month, highlighting that investors' belief in holding gold is rapidly weakening. In addition, Goldman Sachs economists believe that the chaos in Cyprus and the weak performance of the US economy are not enough to affect their expected judgment that the US economic recovery will accelerate in the second half of 20 13, so the bank analysts believe that it is difficult for gold prices to rebound sharply. According to media reports, Cyprus plans to sell about 10 tons of gold, which may be an important reason for the sharp drop in gold futures.
Societe Generale reported on Monday that the price of gold will fall below $65,438+$0.265 per ounce in the next three months. Stephanie Ames, an analyst at Socié té Gé né rale, pointed out that the next target of gold price will be $65,438+$0.265 per ounce, and the market will see this price breakthrough within 1 to 3 months.
The decline in international gold prices may also be affected by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting. The minutes of the monetary policy meeting on June 5438+00 released by the Federal Reserve showed that the Federal Reserve had a heated debate on whether to reduce the size of its monthly bond purchase plan of $85 billion after the middle of the year. Senior Fed officials believe that the US job market has stabilized, and the Fed should consider reducing the size of its asset purchase plan in the next few regular monetary policy meetings to reduce potential risks.
According to the analysis of market participants, the strong position of the US dollar has not changed, and the safe-haven function of gold is concealed by the commodity function, so there is a negative correlation between the US dollar and the trend of gold. Once the strength of the dollar continues, the weak market of gold will also continue. This means that the price of gold will remain under pressure for some time, and the bull market of 12 may also end.
Some analysts believe that the sharp drop in gold prices is due to global financial stability, rising inflation, the world economy and other market concerns, which are all supporting factors of gold prices in the past. After years of ultra-low interest rate environment, many market participants have only negligible returns, and traders can actively seek higher-yielding assets.
Some analysts believe that the slowdown of China's economic growth and the outbreak of gold bulls are also the reasons for the gold plunge. The panic caused by selling has greatly reduced the price, causing many investors to open positions or touch the stop loss position and then close their positions, prompting more people to sell their positions. According to analysis, part of the reason for the decline in gold price is that investors choose to sell rather than increase more margin to keep their positions. In precious metal trading, traders only need to pay a small part of the total contract value to qualify for trading. This part of the transaction is called margin, and when the contract price falls, it will be required to increase the proportion of this margin.