At the same time, the data of the price monitoring center of the National Development and Reform Commission also came out. In the fourth week of February 2023, the expected per capita profit of farmers was-178.2 yuan, which still failed to shake off the losses.
Although pig breeding has not been profitable, farmers are optimistic about the future pig price, and the high enthusiasm of second education and piglet replenishment also promotes the high price of small-scale pigs and piglets.
According to industry monitoring, at present, the proportion of farmers entering the market for secondary fattening is about 15%-20%, and the price of piglets has soared to 700 yuan/head.
The price of piglets continues to rise today.
According to the monitoring of many live pig data on February 28th, the mainstream price of 15kg foreign ternary piglets in Jilin Province is 540-720 yuan/head; Sichuan 15 kg piglet mainstream price 450-560 yuan/head; Shandong Province 15 kg, the mainstream price of ternary piglets is 550-8 10 yuan/head; Shanxi Province 15 kg foreign ternary piglets mainstream price 500-700 yuan/head; Guangdong province 15 kg ternary piglets mainstream price 5 10-630 yuan/head;
Henan Province 15 kg foreign ternary piglet mainstream price 525-700 yuan/head; Hubei Province 15 kg, the mainstream price of ternary piglets is 600-750 yuan/head; Hunan Province 15 kg foreign ternary piglets mainstream price 630-750 yuan/head; Gansu province 15 kg ternary piglets mainstream price 550 yuan/head; Shaanxi Province15kg ternary piglet mainstream price 625-750 yuan/head.
The price increase of piglets will continue in the short term.
Although the current hog market has failed to cross the cost line, compared with pigs, the current piglet price can be said to have risen sharply. As for whether the next piglet market will continue to rise, the author thinks that the piglet market will continue to rise in the short term. After all, farmers are optimistic about the future pig market, and the strength of the piglet market will not decrease in the short term.
In addition, the shortage of piglets in some areas of the current piglet market is also one of the reasons for the price increase of piglets.
Some institutions in the industry have monitored the number of aquaculture. In May last year, the stock of fertile sows began to pick up. However, due to premature elimination in some areas and slow recovery in the short term, there is a shortage of piglets at present and even before May. At present, there are non-epidemic diseases in local pig farms, and farmers rarely buy piglets.
Can pigs make money now?
At present, in addition to the rise in pig prices, there is also good news-feed price reduction. Since the Spring Festival, the price of soybean meal has continued to run weakly, and has now fallen below 4,500 yuan/ton. Haida, East Hope, Zheng Tai Feed and many other feed enterprises announced price reduction, with the highest price reduction of 300 yuan/ton. From the perspective of the whole breeding chain, there is more room for the cost of column replenishment.
Let's work out an account. According to the production costs announced by major pig enterprises, the latest cost announced by Mu Yuan is slightly lower than 7.75 yuan/kg, Wen's is 8.05 yuan/kg, and New Hope is 8.25 yuan/kg. The breeding cost of most other listed pig enterprises is within 8-9 yuan/kg. According to the industry's forecast of the market outlook and the official purchasing and storage policy, these piglets can make a profit with a high probability.
If these piglets can only be as "meager profit" as our budget, will you still choose to fill the column?