1In early October, the price of gold soared to a nine-month high of about 1.795 USD/oz, and fell to about 1.700 USD/oz on Thursday.
A few months ago, traders expected the price of gold to soar to $2,000 an ounce, because they expected that the quantitative easing policies implemented by major central banks around the world would stimulate consumption and raise asset prices and gold prices. Gold has always been regarded as a tool to hedge inflation.
Tom, a commodities analyst at UBS, said that all this has not been realized and the price of gold has fallen. In the process of deleveraging, it is better to accept cash and repay debts than to consume, which is a bearish signal.
The strength of the dollar, which rose by 0.5% against a basket of currencies last month, also pushed down the price of gold.
A strong dollar usually means a fall in the price of gold. When the dollar strengthens, gold futures traded in dollars become more expensive for investors who use other currencies.
Analysts said that in the next few months, there is limited room for gold to rise, because inflation expectations are dim and global stock market risk aversion is rising.
As investors wait and see, they may sell gold exchange traded funds, which will further depress the price of gold.
Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts Gold Fund has more gold reserves than the Bank of France. If investors decide to quit, physical selling will further affect the price of gold.
Analysts said that with the prosperity of the global gold consumption market, India will increase its gold supply, but this will not have a lasting impact.
Gold is widely regarded as India's wealth reserve, which is traditionally used in weddings and religious occasions in India, especially in June 5438+10 and June 5438+10.
Holiday consumption in India is the main driving force of gold price.
However, some people think that India's consumption is not enough to offset investors' selling, and say that the US presidential election on165438+1October 6 will be the next risk event for gold.
This election will change the rules of the game. If Obama wins, the price of gold will remain stable. If Romney wins, the price of gold will fall. Because he will stop spending, the new chairman of the Federal Reserve will not actively print money, which will lower inflation expectations.
Factors affecting the change of gold price
Before the 1970s, the price of gold was basically determined by governments or central banks of various countries, and the international price of gold was relatively stable. In the early 1970s, the price of gold was no longer directly linked to the US dollar, and the price of gold gradually became market-oriented, and the factors affecting the price change of gold increased day by day. Specifically, it can be divided into the following aspects: London gold market has a long history. As early as the beginning of19th century, London was the center of gold refining, sales and trading in the world. 19 19, London gold market began to implement daily pricing system, twice a day. This price is the most important gold price in the world, which has been affecting the transactions in new york and Hongkong gold markets. The gold market prices in many countries and regions are based on the London gold price, and then fluctuate according to their respective supply and demand conditions. At the same time, London gold price is also the benchmark price of many gold transactions and contracts.
Gold pricing in London is conducted in the Gold Room, which is an office of Lochiel's headquarters in central London, England. 1965438+On September 2, 2009/kloc-0, representatives of the top five gold banks in London met in the Gold House for the first time and began to set the daily gold price in the London gold market. This system has continued to this day. The five major gold banks set gold prices twice a day at 10: 30 am and 3: 00 pm respectively. With Lochiel as the pricing host, market transactions usually stop for a moment before pricing. At this time, the gold merchants will first suspend the quotation, and the chief representative of Lochiel will set a suitable opening price according to the price of the New York gold market after the London market was closed the night before and the price of the Hong Kong gold market that morning. Representatives of the other four companies sat around the gold room and immediately reported the opening price to the trading room of their respective companies. The trading rooms of companies immediately trade according to this price, and inform their customers of the latest gold price by telephone or telex, and present the price on the computer system terminal of their trading rooms through Reuters. When each representative receives the order business, he will add up all the trading orders to see whether they are buying more or selling more, or whether the buying and selling are balanced, and then tell the chief representative of Lochiel Company the data information in simple jargon to adjust the price. If the opening price is too high and there are no buyers in the market, the chief representative will lower the price of gold; If the opening price is too low, it will raise the price of gold until a seller appears. Pricing transactions set new prices based on this relationship between supply and demand. At the same time, in the golden house, there is a small British flag on the table of each company representative, which was erected at first. In the process of gold pricing, as long as a company's flag stands on the table, it means that there are new gold trading orders in the market, and the chief representative of Lochiel Company cannot end the pricing. Only when the five flags in the Golden House are put down together, indicating that there are no new buyers and sellers in the market, and the ordering business is completed, the representative of Lochiel Company will announce the end of the transaction, and the final pricing price is the transaction price. The pricing time depends on the market supply and demand, ranging from 1 minute to 1 hour. After that, the new price will soon be passed on to traders all over the world.
The importance of London gold price is inseparable from the core position of London gold market in world gold trading. London monopolized all gold sales in South Africa, the world's largest gold producer, making most of the gold supply in the world gold market traded through the London market. Moreover, the top five gold merchants in London gold market are also famous internationally, and they have extensive contacts with many gold mines and gold merchants in the world. The five major gold merchants have many subsidiaries, which have contacts with many shops and gold customers. This scope not only involves the London gold market, but also extends to the whole world. In addition, in the process of pricing, gold merchants provide customers with a single transaction price, and there is no bid-ask difference, so the price is reasonable, so many people like to trade when pricing. Therefore, in the gold house, five gold traders representing almost the whole world, including gold suppliers, gold demanders and speculators, decide the most reasonable price for buyers and sellers in the market, and the whole pricing process is completely open. Therefore, customers who trade at the time of pricing can definitely know that the transaction price is reasonable. It is precisely because of the above characteristics that London gold price has become the most important gold price in the world. (1) Gold stock on the earth: At present, there are about137,400 tons of gold in the world, and the above-ground gold stock is still growing at a rate of about 2% every year.
(2) Annual supply and demand: The annual supply and demand of gold is about 4,200 tons, and the newly produced gold accounts for 62% of the annual supply.
(3) New gold mining cost: The average total gold mining cost is slightly lower than $260/oz. Due to the development of mining technology, the cost of gold development has been declining in the past 20 years.
(4) Political, military and economic changes in gold-producing countries: Any political and military turmoil in these countries will undoubtedly directly affect the country's gold production, and then affect the world's gold supply.
(5) The central bank sells gold: The central bank is the largest gold holder in the world. 1969 The official gold reserve was 36,458 tons, accounting for 42.6% of the total surface gold stock at that time. By 1998, the official gold reserve is about 34,000 tons, accounting for 24. 1% of the total mined gold stock. According to the current production capacity, this is equivalent to the world gold mineral output 13. Because the main use of gold has gradually changed from an important reserve asset to a metal raw material for jewelry production, either to improve the balance of payments or to curb the international gold price, the central bank's gold reserves have declined greatly in absolute and relative quantities in the past 30 years, and the decline in quantity mainly depends on the sale of gold reserves in the gold market. For example, the large-scale selling by the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the International Monetary Fund to reduce gold reserves has become the main reason for the recent decline in gold prices in the international gold market. The demand for gold is directly related to its use.
(1) Changes in the actual demand for gold (jewelry industry, industry, etc. ).
Generally speaking, the development speed of the world economy determines the total demand for gold. For example, in the field of microelectronics, gold is increasingly used as a protective layer; In the fields of medicine, building decoration and so on, although the progress of science and technology makes gold substitutes appear constantly, the demand for gold is still on the rise because of its special metal properties.
In some areas, local factors have a great influence on the demand for gold. For example, due to the financial crisis, India and Southeast Asian countries, which have always had a great demand for gold jewelry, have greatly reduced their gold imports since 1997. According to the data of the World Gold Council, the demand for gold in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea decreased by 7 1%, 28%, 10% and 9% respectively.
According to statistics, the per capita consumption of gold in China is only 0.2g now, which is far from the largest gold consuming country in the world. At present, the per capita consumption of gold in India is 0.85g, which is more than four times that of China. Judging from China's economic development and per capita income, China is much higher than Indian. Therefore, China's gold consumption potential is huge, and the prospect is very considerable.
(2) the need to preserve value.
Gold reserves have always been regarded by the central bank as an important means to prevent domestic inflation and regulate the market. For ordinary investors, investing in gold is mainly for the purpose of preserving value under inflation. During the economic downturn, because gold is safer than monetary assets, the demand for gold increases and the price of gold rises. For example, in the three dollar crises after World War II, due to the serious balance of payments deficit in the United States, the dollar held by various countries increased greatly, the market's confidence in the value of the dollar was shaken, and investors snapped up gold in large quantities, which directly led to the bankruptcy of the Bretton Woods system. The depreciation of 1987 dollars, the increase of the deficit in the United States and the instability in the Middle East also contributed to the sharp rise in international gold prices.
(3) Speculative demand.
According to the international and domestic situation, speculators use the fluctuation of gold price in the gold market and the trading system in the gold futures market to sell or replenish gold in large quantities, artificially creating the illusion of gold demand. In the gold market, almost every plunge is related to hedge fund companies borrowing short-term gold to sell in the spot gold market and establishing a large number of short positions on the COMEX gold futures exchange. When the price of gold fell to a 20-year low of 1999 in July, the data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that COMEX's speculative short position was close to 9 million ounces (nearly 300 tons). When a large number of stop-loss selling was triggered, the price of gold fell, and the fund company took the opportunity to make up the position and make a profit. When the gold price rebounded slightly, the hedging forward selling from manufacturers suppressed the further rise of the gold price, and at the same time gave the fund company a new opportunity to re-establish short positions, forming a downward pattern of the gold price at that time. AG, a gold and silver research and development center in Gaosaier, said: At present, the price trend of the gold market is not simply determined by market supply and demand, nor is it simply played by central banks. Speculation also accounts for a large proportion in the price.