The LH2205 contract hovers at the low level of12,600 yuan/ton, and the disk price is always lower than the industry breeding cost line.
In the same period, under the expectation that supply and demand will gradually return to balance, the pig distant moon contract (LH2209) shows strong toughness and gives relatively considerable breeding profits.
As of April 13, the contract closing price of LH2205 was 12750 yuan/ton, and that of LH2209 was 16850 yuan/ton.
The pig price is in the bottoming period, with an average price of 12 yuan/kg, and a long-term recovery is expected!
There is still room for downside in the recent 1:LH 2205 contract.
Recently, affected repeatedly by the epidemic in COVID-19, the distribution of live pigs in some provinces was blocked and slaughterhouses were shut down. It is difficult to raise pigs recently, and the supply pressure has been delayed until the middle and late April.
After the pig transportation returns to normal, it is expected that there will be a wave of concentrated slaughter at the breeding end, which will stimulate the spot price to adjust slightly, and then the disk is expected to follow suit.
For the LH2205 contract, we should not only pay attention to the spot price and future earnings, but also pay attention to the impact of delivery on the disk price.
According to the request for premium in pig futures delivery area published by Dalian Commodity Exchange on May 9, 20021,the premium delivery base of Sichuan Province (Henan Province) is 1500 yuan/ton.
Recently, the spot price difference between Sichuan Province and Henan Province is widely in the range of high and low 500 yuan/ton, and it is as high as 1 1,000-2,000 yuan/ton due to premium. Short sellers will be more willing to choose Sichuan pigs, while long sellers may be forced to choose Sichuan pigs. If a large number of warehouse receipts are registered in Sichuan, the disk price will be further lowered.
2 Mid-term: Spot ushered in the shock bottoming period.
Since the middle and late March, the long-short game has been fierce, and the pig price has fluctuated within a narrow range of 12 yuan/kg, entering the bottom period of shock.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry have held several meetings on pork storage and storage to promote the market to usher in the bottom of faith.
After, the price of live pigs dropped rapidly. According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, the national price of pig food fell below 5: 1 in the last week of February, and entered the first-level early warning range of the rapid decline of pig prices.
At the beginning of March, the National Development and Reform Commission ordered the start of the first batch of pork storage, followed by the second and third batches of pork storage, with a cumulative storage capacity of 1 1.8 million tons.
The fourth batch of pork storage will be held on Thursday, with a planned storage capacity of 40,000 tons.
In the same period, recently, Sichuan, Gansu, Jiangxi and other places have also started the pork storage and storage work in provinces and cities.
Among them, Gansu and Jiangxi provinces plan to purchase and store 1.000 tons, and Sichuan Province plans to purchase and store 1.500 tons.
The resonance between the central and local pork storage and storage has effectively strengthened the market belief, and the pig price has ushered in a bottoming period.
The amount of live pigs slaughtered has gradually entered a period of reduction, and the market has ushered in the bottom of reality.
According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of fertile sows in China reached its peak in June 20021year, and began to decline gradually in July.
According to the physical reproductive cycle of pigs, the number of sows that can reproduce corresponds to the number of pigs that are released after 10 months.
Accordingly, in the absence of large-scale pressure, April this year is the high point of pig slaughter in China, and it is expected that the amount of pig slaughter will begin to decrease in May.
In the same period, according to the department's grass-roots investigation, retail investors in the northern region began to reduce the production capacity of fertile sows in May and June of 20021,and correspondingly, the amount of live pigs released began to decrease in April this year.
Based on official data and grass-roots research, we are passing the peak period of pig slaughter and entering the period of decreasing pig slaughter.
Slaughtering enterprises began to hold frozen meat storage and strengthen market support.
It is understood that after the pig price drops to 12 yuan/kg, slaughtering enterprises will start to hold frozen meat cutting warehousing operation one after another; After the pig price drops to 10 yuan/kg, the slaughtering enterprises have a strong willingness to hold frozen meat for cutting and warehousing.
That is to say, after the price of live pigs falls below 12 yuan/kg, the slaughter capacity of slaughter enterprises will gradually increase, which will support the price of live pigs to some extent.
3 Long-term: Pig prices can rebound.
The gradual easing of the contradiction between supply and demand and the increase of breeding cost are still the key factors leading to the far-month price of pigs. When there is no new contradiction in the market, the LH2209 contract may fluctuate in the range of 16000- 18000 yuan/ton, so we can pay attention to the trading opportunities after the price breaks through the fluctuation range.
On the supply side, according to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from July to June in 20265438+ 10, the number of fertile sows nationwide decreased month by month, and by June, the number of fertile sows nationwide decreased by about 6% compared with that in April.
On the demand side, the second half of the year is the traditional peak season for pork consumption, which is driven by the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day and other holiday effects, and can effectively support the supply of pig prices.
On the whole, the supply will shrink in the second half of the year, and the demand will be strong. The pig price is expected to return to above the capital line and there may be a profit margin of 1000- 1600 yuan/ton.
The increase in the cost of breeding has further raised the price center of pigs.
The far-month price of live pigs is mostly based on the current pig price and basic level, combined with the speculation on the breeding cost and supply and demand in the market outlook, and the judgment of the price range is held.
Under the background of global inflation and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of corn, wheat and soybean meal are still high, and the price of pig feed remains high. The cost of pig breeding rose to 15.56- 16.45 yuan/kg, which raised the price center of pigs in Yuanyue.
Considering the relationship between supply and demand and the cost of breeding, the spot price of live pigs is expected to rise to 16- 18 yuan/kg in September.