Large institutions should consider the liquidity of the market when opening positions, so they should rely on basic analysis. Because of its flexible advantages, retail investors can use points to enter the market according to technical analysis. At present, many American investors use basic analysis methods, which makes many technical analysis effective. In fact, because short-term trading is a "zero-sum game", the profits of technical analysis users come from other irrational investors who have no information advantage. Stirling chart
According to the above analysis, investors who use technical analysis can establish the concept that they can win in the market by using technical analysis, but for investors who enter the investment market, I would like to remind them that using technical analysis methods or basic analysis methods is only a basis for entering the market, accounting for only 65,438+00% of their ability to win in the market. Other things that are more important than using technical analysis methods or basic analysis methods are fund management, psychological control, and the difficulty of transforming this knowledge into actual combat ability. If investors want to win in the market, they must have a complete system to analyze transactions. This system includes: transaction analysis system, fund management and psychological control. The basis of establishing this trading system is to have a mature investment concept. Different investors have their own views on the market, such as whether investors are suitable for long-term or short-term, whether they adopt aggressive or steady investment style, and the characteristics of market prices. Investors must be prepared before entering the market. In addition, after completing the above conditions, investors need a period of simulation operation and hard training to do what they say, do what they think and turn their fantasies into reality. Just like a gymnast who wants to complete a set of difficult movements well, he must go through strict training at ordinary times.
Investors should fully realize that in order to win in the market, the use of technical analysis methods or basic analysis methods is only a foundation, and the key to success is not which analysis method to use, which is actually meaningless for many debates about which is better to use technical analysis methods or basic analysis methods. When talking about his brilliant investment career, Ai Kang, a famous South Korean technical school investment master, always said, "I am a technical school, and I regard it as a sword for the success or failure of investment, but only if I have good psychological quality, reasonable capital control and skillful investment skills. Without these conditions, my technical analysis will succeed 99 times, and the last failure will easily knock me down. " No matter how good the technical analysis is, it is also an objective thing, and its owner is still a person. Cars are a good means of transportation, and most car accidents are caused by drivers' illegal driving. Can you blame that stupid car?
The following chart of Dalian soybean futures shows a typical head-shoulder shape, and investors are breaking through the neckline of Dalian soybean futures.
After reading the opinions of the above investment masters, investors should have a more comprehensive view. In the author's 12 years of investment experience, these two methods have been used and constantly tested and tested in actual combat. With the deepening of my understanding of the market in different growth processes, I studied nearly 100 domestic and foreign investment masters and successful investors, and combined with my own situation, I came to the conclusion: 1. Look at technology in the short term. Especially for small and medium-sized retail investors, the asymmetry of market information can only rely on technical analysis as the basis for decision-making, and there is not much news for your reference during market trading hours.
2. Technical analysis and fundamental analysis of the combination of medium and long lines. For the author who has participated in the operation of institutions, I deeply understand that it is not easy for institutions to open positions. As an institution, dozens of hands and hundreds of hands clinch a deal instantly, but as an institution, thousands of hands must have a difficult process of opening positions, so it is necessary to open positions early before the inflection point of the market comes. Like Dalian soybean, it generally needs an opening interval of around 100- 150. Sometimes we even use the reverse operation of the opposite trend of foreign related futures markets to open positions, thus grabbing cheap chips in the market. This requires studying the macro trend of fundamentals and grasping the general direction. As a technical analysis, it is a practice that provides opportunities to master.
From a dialectical point of view, any set of analysis methods has its advantages and disadvantages. Under favorable market conditions, different analysis methods can give full play to their respective advantages, while under the opposite market conditions, their disadvantages are fully exposed, which will bring disastrous risks to investors. Therefore, when investors use different analysis methods, they should first realize the shortcomings of this method, because a large number of books and promoters will publicize its advantages, and often these invisible things will be disastrous once they appear in actual combat. Before using a set of analysis methods, investors should adopt a scientific attitude: boldly simulate the test, less actually test the trading volume, and must pass the periodic trend test of rising and falling.
Just like a blind man touching an elephant, every investor only feels a part of the elephant's body, and each analysis method only aims at different aspects of the past price model. If we use the invariance of a single analysis method to deal with the complexity of the actual price, we will inevitably be in the position of analysis method. No analytical method can capture every event in the market. If each analysis method reveals a part of the picture, it is possible to complete a more complete picture by comprehensively using several analysis methods. The most ideal analysis method is the combination of technical analysis and basic analysis, combined with psychological analysis and opponent analysis. Schwartz is a short-term Wall Street speculator who mainly focuses on technical analysis. He spends 1 hour in his daily work collecting all kinds of news in the market to verify his analysis. In many years of actual combat, the author relies on the analysis method of combining the two, uses the technical analysis method to find the opportunity to enter the market, uses the basic analysis method to confirm and predict the possible range of market trends, enhances the confidence of long-term positions, and grasps the profits several times through holding positions for several months.
In the previous battle report articles, Long-term Supreme and Short-term Heavenly King introduced the analysis methods of trends and oscillation trends in technical analysis to investors, and the following will introduce another analysis tool-basic analysis method to investors.