Soybean oil basis is the difference between the spot price and futures price of soybean oil commodities at a specific time and place. Its calculation method is the spot price minus the futures price. If the spot price is lower than the futures price, the basis is negative; The spot price is higher than the futures price and the basis is positive.

I. Influencing factors of basis difference

1, mass

Because the futures contract stipulates the trading of commodities at the benchmark level, and the quality of actual spot transactions is often inconsistent with the level of futures contracts stipulated by the exchange, this quality difference is included in the basis difference.

2. Region

The commodity delivery place stipulated in the futures contract of the futures exchange is the standard delivery place designated by the exchange, but the actual spot transaction delivery place is often different from the delivery place designated by the exchange. Therefore, the freight difference between the two delivery places has created a certain foundation.

3. Time

Because the delivery time of spot trading is often inconsistent with the delivery month of futures, there is a time difference between the futures price and the spot price. The basis of time influence is mainly reflected in the storage cost, which includes storage cost, insurance premium and interest. In different parts of the spot market, the size of the basis is often fixed in a certain range; Traders can judge the forward spot price by predicting the basis and combining the futures price.

Second, the basis is the difference between the spot price and the futures price. In general, the basis is negative. Negative basis does not mean that futures investors are optimistic about the market outlook, and the change of basis is of great significance for arbitrage and hedging. When the following situations occur, the basis narrows or even turns positive: First, the spot price remains relatively strong, even exceeding the futures price; Second, the market is pessimistic about the future trend of this variety, resulting in relatively weak futures prices. Therefore, the narrowing of the basis indicates that the futures market is pessimistic about the price trend, while the widening of the basis indicates that the market is optimistic about the future price trend. Theoretically, the basis should be inversely proportional to the price trend. Judging from the performance of stock index futures, there is no obvious law between the change of basis on the same day and the reverse change of price trend on the next trading day.