On Tuesday, the three major indexes of A shares opened higher and went lower, and rose slightly in late trading. The total turnover of the two cities is1199.7 billion yuan; The net purchase of northbound funds was 7.949 billion yuan. Disk observation: household goods, construction machinery, household appliances and other sectors were among the top gainers; The aviation, semiconductor and electrical equipment sectors were among the top losers. At the close: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0. 16% to 3,595.09 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.38% to 14697.438+07 points; The GEM index fell 1.09% to 3,368.78 points.
market outlook
Yesterday's closing comments on our "possible RRR cut expectations" just fell, and the central bank's overall RRR cut of 0.5 percentage points landed in time, which will release a total of about 1.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds. In June+February, 5438, the amount of MLF due was as high as 95 million yuan. The RRR cut is expected to further stabilize market liquidity expectations and increase the grip to cope with the downward pressure on the economy; We have also mentioned many times that the downward pressure on the economy has been obvious since the third quarter. This RRR cut not only considers the capital structure of financial institutions, but also pays more attention to cross-cycle adjustment, and the signal of steady growth and risk prevention is more clear; It is worth noting that in June 5438+ 10, there is still 500 billion yuan of MLF due, and the pressure of bond supply is great under the financial pre-position. Under the broad monetary policy, it is still possible to continue to reduce RRR or even cut interest rates. In addition, the RRR cut and the tone of the Political Bureau meeting show that the current downward pressure on the economy is a consensus. As the new year approaches, the policy expectation of risk prevention and steady growth is still the key factor that dominates the market performance, and the end of the year to the beginning of next year may be an important window period for policy reinforcement.
Today, although the Shanghai Composite Index fell back and fell below the 3600-point integer mark again, the weight plate has a strong inheritance and is obviously close to the close. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upward tomorrow after calm digestion; The concept of "real estate chain" such as home appliances, building materials and construction machinery has risen sharply under the favorable background of RRR interest rate cuts.
Yesterday, we mentioned: the "big finance" with potential support due to marginal policy changes or efforts, and some "big consumption" sectors with marginal improvement of market expectations after previous adjustment are worthy of attention! Today's performance is better than "big infrastructure", that is, "big finance+big consumption", and "real estate chain" related stocks also belong to the above sectors. But we should pay special attention here: although the "real estate chain" stocks are good, the future of "pure real estate" stocks is still in doubt, and the rebound is not a reversal.
In addition, yesterday, I also reminded that "short-term high level will inevitably lead to the differentiation of new energy, military industry and big technology", and today it really fell miserably; But in the long run, it is still a high-profile mainstream track with long-term capital allocation. After adjustment, we are still optimistic about next year's performance.
Operation strategy
Specific direction: in the short and medium term, we can continue to pay attention to opportunities in low-valuation sectors such as "big finance and big consumption (including medicine)"; "New energy, military industry, big technology", etc. should use the medium and long-term thinking to adjust the position allocation with retracement.
Zhao, senior investment consultant of GF Securities, has the practice certificate number S02606 140600 14.