After three months of hard work, compared with less than two months, the net income has dropped by nearly 70%. Li Dazhuang's experience is a microcosm of the trend of pig prices since September this year-the recent increase in pig prices began at the end of September, around 65,438+1October 20, and rose to 28.4 yuan per kilogram of 24 yuan in just over 20 days. Then it began to fall, entering 1 1 month, and it fell quickly and greatly, and it fell to 22 yuan now, with a drop of more than 20%. While falling below the starting point, it has become the lowest point in the last six months.
Originally expected to rise, but encountered the reality of falling. Feng Yonghui, chief analyst of Souzhu.com, told the First Financial Reporter, "Every winter, especially before the Spring Festival, is the peak season for bacon consumption. If consumption can be effectively restored at present, it will stabilize the confidence of the pig industry. If consumption is delayed, the pig industry will probably produce a' barrier lake', that is, the longer the pigs are pressed, the more big pigs and the more pork, which will lead to a further decline in pig prices next year. "
An unexpected drop in pig prices.
At the end of each year, supported by the demand for bacon, the price of pigs generally shows an upward trend. In addition, a new pig cycle has started in March this year, and it is currently on the rise. It is particularly important to be optimistic about the macro situation at the end of 10 and beyond, which makes Li Dazhuang firmly believe that the increase in pig prices in the fourth quarter is like a "nail on the board".
At the beginning of September, Li Dazhang bought 100 pigs for secondary fattening. At that time, the weight of live pigs was about 1 10 kg, and the price of pigs was 22.5 yuan/kg. After a month and a half of fattening, the trend of pig price conforms to the expectation before the end of 10. About 65438+1October 65438+June, the weight of live pigs reached about 145 kg, when the local pig price was 28.5 yuan/kg. If sold at this time, after deducting the cost of buying pigs and feed, the average profit per head exceeds 1000 yuan.
This kind of income is already considerable. In contrast, before the outbreak of African swine fever, in normal years, the profits of pig farmers buying fattened piglets were from 250 yuan to 400 yuan. The average profit per pig will reach 1050~ 1 100 yuan, which will exceed the sum of the profits of three outsourced piglets raised by farmers in the past.
However, at that time, the market generally expected that the pig price would exceed 30 yuan/kg in mid-June165438+1October. If so, the per capita profit will further rise to 1800 yuan, up by 60%~70%. Although Li Dazhuang is an "old-fashioned" pig industry, he can't resist the temptation, and his mind is hot for a while and he doesn't stop making profits.
10 in late June, the price of pigs fell instead of rising. In the month of 1 1, it showed a rapid decline and a large decline. Despite a lot of reluctance, Li Dazhuang killed all the pigs around165438+1October 25th. At this point, the per capita profit is only 350 yuan.
From the possible income of more than 65,438+10,000 yuan at the beginning to only 35,000 yuan now, Li Dazhuang is still a lucky one. On the one hand, the breeding level and management level are high, and there is no stress death of pigs; On the other hand, with the support of the demand for live pigs, we can do our best.
Lin Guofa, research director of Brick Agricultural Products Collection Network, told the First Financial Reporter that farmers who are engaged in secondary fattening can still get the same average profit as in normal years if they start earlier. It is suggested that pig farmers pay close attention to slaughter, otherwise the longer it takes to slaughter, the more difficult it is to slaughter "cattle and pigs" (large pigs with over-standard slaughter weight). At that time, if the demand is still weak and cannot be supported, it will easily lead to a further decline in pig prices, and the average profit per head may turn from positive to negative.
There has been a phenomenon of "selling pigs is difficult". Pig farmers who started later than Li Dazhuang complained bitterly. Some farmers buy "standard pigs" (pigs with a standard weight of 220kg) for secondary fattening at the price of 24 yuan per kilogram, expecting the pig price to rise to 28~30 yuan before selling. As a result, the pig price suddenly fell to the present 22 yuan.
Judging from the trend of pig price, from the end of September to around October 20th, 10, the pig price rose by 4 yuan/kg for more than 20 days. However, since1Oct. 20th 10, the price of pigs has dropped for more than one month, with the cumulative decline exceeding 6 yuan/kg.
Feng Yonghui said that if the increase is less than the decrease, the pig farmers will inevitably fall below the cost line. If breaking the cost line makes pig farmers panic, they can still throw it away at first. However, in some places, due to the closure of the COVID-19 epidemic, pig wagons can't collect pigs normally. "The price of a pig dropped to 6 yuan, and a pig directly lost 600 yuan. What makes pig farmers psychologically collapse is that they can't throw it away now. " He said.
Weak demand makes pig prices lose support.
In fact, pig farmers who fatten twice are like "takers" in the stock market, and the judgment of making choices is based on the expectation that pig prices will continue to rise.
In order to speculate that the price of pigs will rise in the future, secondary fattening is a common phenomenon in the pig industry. Specifically, large-scale pig enterprises slaughter pigs close to the standard weight (1 10 kg), and small-scale farmers buy them for secondary fattening, and slaughter them after reaching a larger weight. According to feedback from the industry, pig farmers who have the same idea as Li Dazhuang actually started the second fattening in August, and this phenomenon reached its climax in late September and early June. This phenomenon is concentrated in Northeast China and North China.
Before the second fattening in Li Dazhuang, the increase of pig price was related to the shortage of pork supply. The reasons include pig crushing, secondary fattening and reduced pork imports.
Lin Guofa said that since July, the output of pig feed has remained at an absolute high level, with a month-on-month increase, which is in contradiction with the insufficient supply of pork in the same period. The main reason is that pigs are delayed from being slaughtered, which leads to a decline in feed conversion rate, and pork production is not reflected in the slaughter situation.
From the perspective of imports, customs data show that in the first eight months of 2022, China imported 6.5438+0.06 million tons of pork, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5438+0.75 million tons.
From September to mid-June, the price of pigs rose 10, which was interpreted by the industry as the demand for pork will increase substantially in the fourth quarter and the price of pigs will rise. Pig farmers choose to press the file for secondary fattening, which leads to a small amount of pigs to be slaughtered and a firm pig price.
For the sudden drop of pig price from the end of 65438+ 10 to/kloc-0+10, the industry said that this was the performance of "joy and sorrow" in the market. Lin Guofa said that the weight of pigs in the early stage is getting bigger and bigger, and a single pig can supply more pork. Feng Yonghui even pointed out that pig farmers speculated on the price of live pigs, which gave birth to a price bubble. A large number of secondary fattening began in September, and collective pressure appeared in June 10. "There are pigs that don't sell, causing the illusion of lack of pigs, and the price bubble will burst sooner or later."
More importantly, after the end of 10, the market expectation that pork consumption will pick up to support the increase in pig prices has not been fulfilled. From the perspective of household consumption, for example, the demand for daily meals and dining out at home, as well as the demand for seasonal homemade bacon and sausages have declined; From the perspective of enterprise consumption, it is still in the small batch production test market to delay the start of peak season production. In addition, because chicken is more competitive than pork, some enterprises choose to adjust the production structure of products to reduce the production of products with high pork content, or adjust the formula of raw materials to appropriately reduce the pork content in products containing pork and chicken. In addition, as the price difference between beef and pork narrows, production enterprises will appropriately increase the development of beef products.
The continuous downturn in demand has caused the pig price to stagnate and fall back to a certain extent. Under such expected switching, farmers are worried that pig prices will fall further in the future, the willingness to slaughter pigs will increase, and pig prices will fall rapidly.
Although the price of pigs has fallen, the feelings of urban consumers are not obvious. The price of pork in supermarkets has not been significantly lowered, and even slightly increased.
Lin Guofa believes that the decline in pig prices would have led to a decline in pork, but on the one hand, the limited logistics at the retail end led to an increase in pork transportation costs. On the other hand, operating costs have increased since June this year, making it difficult to make a profit. This move is also to "return blood." Feng Yonghui said that the catering industry usually wholesales pork from farmers' markets, which is more sensitive to the price transmission of slaughtering enterprises, while consumers buy pork from the retail side. Pork prices in Shang Chao are generally stable for a long time, and some cities are also affected by the epidemic, so consumers have limited choices.
New characteristics of this pig cycle
The rise and fall of pig prices experienced by Li Dazhuang is actually not outstanding if we look at the trend of pig prices throughout the year. Since late March this year, the price of pigs has been officially confirmed after it dropped to 1 1.5 yuan/kg. The industry regards it as opening a new round of pig cycle.
In this pig cycle, the sharp rise and fall of pig prices has become a remarkable feature. For example, similar to the rapid rise of pig prices from the end of September to the middle of 10 and the rapid decline since the end of 10, it also experienced a sharp rise from the end of June to the beginning of July and a decline from the beginning of July to the end of July.
Since March, the overall price of pigs has gone up. Especially at the end of June and the beginning of July, the market generally expects that the supply of live pigs will be tight in July and August, and the price of live pigs will continue to rise. During this period, there is no correction, and the single-day increase exceeds 1 yuan/kg. Taking the first week of July as an example, it continued the upward trend in late June. The price of pigs first broke through the important mark of 20 yuan/Jin, and then rose by 20% within a week. The national average price approaches to 24 yuan/kg, and many places in China break through 25 yuan/kg. At the beginning of July, the state carried out strong macro-control, and the price of pigs began to fall. From 23.9 yuan/kg on July 5th, it quickly dropped to 2 1.5 yuan/kg on July 8th. However, in July 10, it rose to 23.5 yuan/kg again, and then fluctuated lower for 20 consecutive days. On July 27th, it fell back to 20.5 yuan/kg, and some provinces fell below 20 yuan/kg. After hitting a low point, it oversold and rebounded above 2 1 yuan/kg in early August.
Behind the rise in pig prices, although it is indeed related to the tightening of supply and demand, the sharp rise in prices is related to the agitation of market sentiment and the speculation of funds. In the game process between policy and market, the phenomenon of weight gain and secondary fattening has obviously increased.
In view of this feature, Lin Guofa suggested that raising pigs is a career, the core of which is to continuously improve the level of breeding, reduce the unit breeding cost, treat the pig price with a normal heart, and don't over-speculate the pig price. Once the speculation fails, it is likely to face huge losses and even the capital chain is broken.
Feng Yonghui also suggested that pig farmers should learn from their mistakes, be less speculative and be more rational. For example, in the past two years since the listing of live pig futures, we should pay more attention to live pig futures and arrange the production rhythm according to the price trend of long-term contracts of live pig futures to avoid rushing to the market. At the same time, since media hype will aggravate the short-term fluctuation of pig prices, we should learn to avoid being misled by some media.