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Why have stocks been falling recently?

For this question, many people may look for answers from policies, funds, international environment, etc. This is good, especially the influence of policy factors, which will always be accompanied by the operation of the stock market; funds will Not to mention, when capital flows in, the stock market will naturally rise, but when capital flows out, it will fall; the international environment, including exchange rates, major stocks, futures market price changes, wars, etc., will all affect the domestic stock market. However, many people have overlooked an important point: the stock market has its own operating rules! The buying and selling of stocks is actually a psychological game between buyers and sellers. The transaction price is the balance point between the interests of buyers and sellers. All factors are ultimately reflected in the price through the psychology of buyers and sellers. Therefore, the operation of the stock market is based on market confidence. It is a specific reflection of market psychology: buy low and sell high, rapid rise and pullback, sharp fall and retracement, all of which can be interpreted as: a certain kind of consciousness - balance has been achieved in the market! Although imbalance is the norm in the stock market, if it deviates too far from equilibrium, it will return to equilibrium, just like a pendulum. This is the law. All factors play a role on this basis. You can break the course of the trend, but you cannot change the trend. This is what rules do! For example: During the upward trend, at the end of December 1996, due to the excessive rise of the Shanghai stock market, the central government issued a document, causing a sharp decline for three consecutive days. Most stocks closed at the limit within three days, but the market should still rise, and it would not be because of It turned due to policy factors and continued to rise in the first half of 1997; similarly, after the downward trend emerged after 2242 points, the government also introduced rescue policies many times, but none of them worked. The reason is that the market has not returned to its original position! To put it simply, the factors that affect the stock market include both fundamental factors and the operating laws of the market itself. Sometimes fundamental factors have a greater impact, and more often the laws play a greater role. For the market, high positions tend to form heads, and low positions tend to form bottoms. It should be said that market highs and lows are relative. The original high level will turn into a low level over time. Similarly, the original low level can also turn into a high level. However, in a time series (a wave of bull market), the high level will turn into a low level. The higher one is, the lower one is lower. Some people may ask: Why can’t we hit new highs? Good question. Of course, if funds stop flowing in, it will not be able to reach new highs. Asked again: Why did the capital stop flowing in? Answer: Because I feel that the market price is at a high level and there is no room for profit. Ask again: How to judge whether the market is at a high level? Answer: Market psychology affects market confidence. Those who are involved in the stock market more or less want to ascertain the present from the past and deduce the future from history. Then, the market’s trajectory, time, key points, support and pressure, etc., will profoundly affect our Thinking affects our judgment because the market believes that history will repeat itself - just in a different way. Each of us has our own psychological highs and lows, and the mainstream opinion is the truth. The head is formed when capital no longer flows in, and the bottom is formed when capital outflow shrinks; between the head and the bottom is the trend. When a short trend is formed and funds are flowing out, currency holders will not intervene. Only when the fund outflow dries up, that is, when trading volume shrinks, will funds enter the market on a large scale and reverse the trend in one fell swoop. After the bull trend is determined, it will continue to rise and funds will continue to flow in before a head is formed. One thing that needs to be made clear is the relationship between funds and trends. The inflow of funds at the end of the short market changed the market trend from downward to upward. From this point of view, it seems that funds are leading the trend. In fact, it is not the case. Market imbalance is the norm. After the short-term operation reaches its peak, the market is already ready for reverse correction. Funds take advantage of the momentum to enter the market and form a synergistic force. After the trend is formed, more funds are attracted in, pushing the market higher. What will happen if funds enter the market at the long-short balance point? It will form a consolidation and it will not attract other funds to come in. Therefore, the relationship between funds and the market is that the two influence each other, but there is a trend first and then funds. (This also applies to the property market. The government always thinks that high housing prices are due to property plagiarism. In fact, if housing prices don’t rise, who will do it?) If there is no trend, there will definitely be no funds. Funds are the direct factor affecting the rise and fall of the stock market, but it is market confidence that determines the inflow and outflow of funds. People's psychological activities affect judgment, judgment determines behavior, and behavior leads to consequences. If you feel that there is some truth to what is said above, take a little test now.

1. Suppose you have a sum of money to invest in the stock market. After considering historical factors such as trajectory, time, trading volume, etc., at what point do you think it is safer to intervene? (Principle of safety first, profit second) 2. If you think the current point is the bottom, has the current trading volume reached the point of shrinking? In other words: capital outflows have dried up! If it is true, of course it is not far from the bottom. If not, just wait slowly