First of all, the delivery fee of the take-away platform is not high at present, which is basically around 6 yuan money per order. The reason why the delivery fee is not high is that consumers' spending power is limited. If you order a restaurant with 30 yuan and need 30 yuan, do you think consumers will pay the bill? And the distribution cost is not high, which determines the poor distribution experience. Are you hungry? Just look at the incubator of the riders in the US Mission. Is it blue? Is it yellow? No-it's black!
Secondly, the nature of the take-away industry determines that it needs as many businesses as possible to attract more consumers to use its platform. For this reason, his requirements for settled businesses are inevitably not high (although they are constantly rectified). The purpose of the business is of course to make money. Behind a wave of concessions is the continuous decline in the quality of ingredients. Another key point is that some businesses only do online sales, so the overall investment of such businesses will be much lower than that of the traditional catering industry, so they are not afraid of word of mouth and the like.
Third, the quality of takeaway riders also determines that the future of the whole takeaway industry is hopeless. Running a red light, going backwards and speeding are common, and there are also vicious incidents such as theft and rape. On the surface, it is a problem of chess players, but in fact it is a problem of the management of take-away platforms. Fundamentally speaking, the takeaway platform simply doesn't want to spend more money on riders. The reason is that China's overall consumption capacity is not high, and it can't support a better level of take-away consumption (mass consumption here).
Fourth, no matter how well you do in the catering industry, when you rely on other platforms to make takeout (Meituan, are you hungry? ), your fate, at least your takeaway fate, is in the hands of others (it is up to him to decide whether to give or not the traffic), and you have to act according to his rules.
Therefore, McDonald's, KFC and other foreign fast food, in the case of paying attention to cost, would rather spend more money to choose their own staff distribution than choose a take-away platform.
The take-away industry is still developing with each passing day. Because of the popularity of smart phones and the development of lazy economy, coupled with the frequent flow of urban population, many people rent houses, so the demand for takeaway will continue to grow further.
However, in the development trend of the industry, not every business can benefit from it. Hungry, and the take-out of the US group, including the sale of the reviewers under the US group review, are still relying on subsidies to attract users. For the platform, the degree of subsidy is relatively large, while the advertising fee and revenue are still at a low level. For merchants, especially small take-away shops, the success of this platform will do great harm to their profits, so many shops are planning to gather their users on their own platforms and master their own data, such as developing their own apps or small programs to attract users to register with various benefits. Of course, this decision is more beneficial to larger restaurants. Little-known shops still need to attract attention on the platform and attract more users.
The take-away industry is promoting the increase of lazy people, but it does not say: food safety is worrying. There are many programs upside down and many hidden dangers. You don't listen. You spit. You added urine and shit. People are unpredictable. It also affects the operating costs of catering. There are several channels of exploitation. What kind of innovation is this? This is basically a highway robbery. Meaningless. [pray] [pray]
It's ok even in first-tier cities.
1. Inevitable cost problem
Human nature is not lazy, but a cost-benefit relationship, otherwise it can't explain why human beings are not lazy in courtship, raising the next generation and choosing a place to live.
Distribution cost. Let's take a look at Tokyo and Manhattan. It is true that take-out is very developed, but even in the United States and Japan, the formats of most cities have not been overwhelmed by take-out.
Americans really don't like to cook by themselves, but that doesn't mean that these people will order takeout. It is common to drive a few kilometers out to eat. The labor cost of people living in low-density areas is similar to the cost of sending a takeaway brother: according to the opportunity cost calculation, it is always not cost-effective to ask others to drive.
What about China? In the long run, not cooking will overwhelm cooking, which is an inevitable trend of economic development. After all, most people in China have no take-away habits. Don't take big cities as examples, but emphasize that this article is about the whole country. But not cooking doesn't mean ordering takeout. In economics, if the cost of going out to eat by yourself is higher than that of take-out, it is more appropriate to go by yourself. First-tier cities can do it, but at present, most towns in China can't meet this standard.
A simple comparison:
-Merchants: Dining customers occupy the venue, so the rent dilution included in the take-away part itself becomes a part of the merchant's gross profit, but the platform fee will be spent, so as long as this part can increase traffic and profit.
Customer: We have already paid more freight.
-Platform: Pumped by flowing water.
-deliveryman: salary+performance commission
In other words, when the customer picks up the goods, he loses the opportunity cost of consumption at the venue and pays the delivery fee; At the same time save time. Unfortunately, below the third-tier cities, the time saved at present is too limited: the transportation distance and waiting cost for this part of people to eat are very low.
I am familiar with Hebei. Many people in Shijiazhuang want to take a nap and go home for dinner. When they arrive in Langfang and Cangzhou, it will take them ten minutes to go home. The time saved is far less than the cost of takeaway. The gross profit of takeaway for lunch and dinner is too low to support the takeaway brother. Although the commissions and profits of third-tier cities are shrinking in proportion, the basic salary as a commission cannot be greatly expanded.
What we can observe is that takeout in the sense of first-tier cities is not easy to do below the third line. What is alive and well is cake, fruit and high-margin wine. Maybe people in small cities won't go home for dinner at noon, but also start eating fast food and eating out. But the overwhelming advantage of take-away food is unprecedented in other parts of the world.
About research.
I personally used to write industry research reports and CFA. I have done some work before, and what I want to discuss here is that as a researcher, this article does not explain the problems of take-out and cooking by myself enough.
First of all, the respondents, Baidu, Meituan and Hungry, add up to no more than 200 million active users, including inactive and swiping. The selected survey object must be take-away, which excludes more than 70% of the people in the country at once; If we choose to write a report, we will use takeaway. Of course, the data shows that everyone's life has been changed by the takeaway app. Try this questionnaire in a fourth-tier city? Right?
The second is will. Rich people certainly don't want to cook, but the proportion of rich people is very small. The biggest illusion given by bar charts is that the income distribution seems to be even. In fact, the richest 65,438+1100 million people in China do not cook every day. Sorry, they don't contribute much to the market. Of course, it is ok if they order spicy lobster rice every day.
Third. The take-away industry is still subsidizing. It is difficult to tell whether people rely on foreign sales for convenience or for saving money. Most people see that brand catering is cheaper than internal food, and of course they will continue to use it. If we can't find out from the data whether people choose to continue to use takeaway because of subsidies or other reasons. Then the reason why the internet is convenient is not stable.
Many internet reports give investors and the public an illusion of excellent form. In fact, quite a few start-ups died in this atmosphere. If the discussion is about the trend of the whole society, it is suggested to choose the target more randomly and directly tell Party A how many people refused during the investigation.
Finally, about the development of science and technology.
Indeed, some friends mentioned that if automatic food delivery is mature, the cost of takeaway will drop sharply. I don't want to refute this technology. I just think that if autonomous driving is possible, food science and physical space will change greatly. It may be better to buy a self-heating product directly than the existing restaurant. Or people may prefer to let self-driving cars take themselves to restaurants; For example, ar and vr technologies may completely change the diet.
Therefore, assuming that other industries and technologies remain unchanged, it is obviously irresponsible to think that only autonomous driving can make rapid progress. After 20 years, we must grasp the general trend of science and technology. Whether take-out will flood the kitchen is another matter.
At present, take-out can not replace the kitchen, but various types of take-out services. Those who use the data of take-away companies to cook for themselves underestimate the ambitions of these companies.
The take-away market has developed for a long time. From the previous competition of many platforms to the present, there are only two giants left-Hungry and Meituan. So who will die in the end?
First of all, the take-away market is so large that it is unlikely to be completely monopolized. Just like Ali in e-commerce, there is no uniqueness, which is very different from Tencent. Socialization is quite unique. When most people use WeChat to communicate, it's hard for you to use anything else. However, the take-away market is different. As long as the food is delivered on time, as long as there is a little discount, many people will naturally return. In other words, customers in the takeaway industry are not sticky.
Secondly, the US Mission will also go public recently, and the owner is not short of money. If you are hungry, Ali is behind you; Ali Qiang has a lot of money and Alipay entrance, and Meituan is a traditional strong person in this field and has certain advantages. However, neither of them has completely defeated each other's hard power at present, and there is not much disadvantage in financial strength.
Thirdly, although the market share of Hungry is lower than that of Meituan, considering Hungry, it has been acquired by Baidu Takeaway, which means that there is not much difference between Meituan and Hungry. This is still earlier data. Since Ali acquired Hungry, he set foot in Alipay, and the market share of Hungry has increased to a certain extent.
Finally, as far as services are concerned, there is little difference between the two, and this competitive situation will continue for a long time. Because this market is big enough, neither party will give up easily. If one party doesn't do well, it can introduce new capital and management at any time, and then fight price wars to attract customers. There is no end.
First of all, it is certain that the take-away market is also very large. There may be one monopoly, but there will not be only one. At present, Meituan has the largest take-away market share, but Meituan also has strong competitors who are hungry!
Meituan used to be a general of Ali Department and eventually switched to Tencent. It is easier to do things with Tencent as a big backer. In order to stop the US Mission, Ali fought back against Tencent and supported the hungry younger brother. After Alipay opened the first-level entrance to give key support, the growth rate of hungry is very fast, and the market share is rising, which will definitely have a certain impact on the future US delegation, but it does not mean that the future market must be these two. In the era of mobile Internet, many things change rapidly. Just like in the field of e-commerce, with the control of Ali and JD.COM, Pinduoduo can still be big. Many things are full of variables, but for consumers, the fiercer the competition, the more popular it is.
This take-away market is also large enough, and it is possible for one to dominate or two to compete for hegemony. However, even if the market share is large and the main energy is not spent on improving products or services, consumers will be lost. If they do it right, consumers will automatically stand at their feet and line up to choose who. This is the truth that those who win the hearts of the people win the world!
Meituan takeaway is now a monopoly, threatening to force merchants to sign the so-called strategic cooperation agreement, which is actually an exclusive agreement and pay a deposit of 2000. If you don't sign, you will raise the original score of 15 to 20-26, and if you don't obey, you will go offline and delimit the distribution scope. I just want to ask how many years can such a rogue enterprise do?
The take-away industry is characterized by fast consumption and speed. I ordered a 1 1 yuan noodle before. It tastes really good, but I rarely order takeout. There are too many things in my refrigerator for other reasons, not only all kinds of beef, mutton, milk, red wine and yogurt, but also through takeout. Therefore, my understanding of foreign sales is that in the future, take-out will replace all consumer goods models, and the following stores will be realized in the form of experience stores. To tell the truth, I seldom go to those experience stores, but at most I go to the movies. Recently, I don't even go out to watch movies, and the consumption method is express delivery. Apart from staying in hotels on business, I basically don't go shopping in outside stores, which basically have takeout. With the improvement of China people's consumption ability, the consumption of daily necessities in the future is basically.
I have been the stationmaster of Meituan takeaway for 3 years. As an insider, I want to express my different views.
1. diversification. As an important channel to facilitate people's lives, with the diversification of demand, in the future, we will not only deliver meals, but also start sending flowers, medicines, vegetables and fresh food, and more and more life scenes will be included in take-away.
2. Integration of take-away and express delivery industries. I didn't know that Meituan and Hungry were laying out the express logistics industry when Sitong Yida was still in melee. We can also deliver goods through four links and one delivery, which is also delivery. Why not expand our business scope?
3. It is difficult to form the monopoly of Big Mac in a short time.