According to the forecast of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the global demand for crude oil in 20 15 will be 28.9 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 2003. This demand level is lower than the average daily output of OPEC members last month and the target of 30 million barrels per day set by the Vienna Conference. To make matters worse, the data released by us energy information administration on the same day showed that as of the week of February 5th, US crude oil inventories increased by 6.5438+0.5 million barrels, while the market expected to decrease by 2.2 million barrels. The unexpected increase in inventory indicates weak demand.

New york crude oil futures price closed at $60.94 per barrel on June 5438+00, and once fell to a five-and-a-half-year low of $60.43 in intraday trading. Brent crude oil futures settled down 3.9% to $64.24 a barrel. During European trading hours 1 1, international oil prices rebounded slightly. However, the continuous decline in the past five months has caused oil prices to hit a five-year low.

From a fundamental point of view, since 20 14, the actual oil demand in emerging economies such as China and India has grown slowly, the supply of shale oil has increased, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has stabilized, and the oversupply in the international oil market is one of the undeniable incentives for the decline in oil prices.

However, many analysts believe that the continuous decline of international oil prices can no longer be analyzed simply by the fundamentals of imbalance between supply and demand, but more by the game of political and human factors. In the long run, shale oil reduces the international crude oil price from two aspects: supply growth and price transmission. At the same time, this diversification of supply is conducive to reducing the fluctuation of international oil prices and intensifying the game of crude oil production between the United States and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.