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Is China a bull market or a bear market?
Now you should follow the trend, don't be a dead cow and a dead bear, just be a diaosi. The market has reached a turning point in the stock market in recent weeks, which may determine the final market outcome this year. Today, when the market broke through 3500 to 34 19, it attracted some off-exchange funds to bargain-hunting, but the sustainability of this part of the funds can be seen in the afternoon. If we can continue to attract off-exchange funds to intervene, it is expected to recover 3,500 points today. However, if the follow-up funds are not actively bargain-hunting in the afternoon, this part of the bargain-hunting funds will be trapped again, and the market will test the next target of 3,400 points (which is relatively strong). If this point breaks through 3000 points, please pay attention to avoid risks. Three weeks ago, Space Diary suggested that many indicators are still in danger (some indicators have not been tested since July 2005, but they have been seriously decomposed to prevent market reversal). If we can't restore the index by gradually enlarging the continuous quantity, there may be a cold current in the stock market in 2008. 3600 points was easily broken down that day, and I hope the market can be as optimistic as I expected, but the short-term market is indeed facing a very dangerous situation, which was never encountered in 2006 and 2007. If the stock market weakens again in the afternoon and continues to break through 3400 points, it is recommended to control the position. Although many people believe by experience that the bottom of the market will be born when the previous strong stocks make up for the decline, the nature of this wave of plunge caused by the main selling of blue chips has changed greatly. The previous crackdown was for stock exchange. Nowadays, under the suppression of many negative factors, such as huge refinancing, sustained high inflation and non-lifting of the ban, the operating pressure of institutions is increasing. At present, the main force is not only to suppress the stock exchange, but also to force the government to adjust stamp duty and regulate negative issues such as vicious huge issuance. This embarrassing situation often leads to unexpected situations. The bottom of the market is not just the so-called analyst's analysis based on the past experience of the market. In fact, the emergence of the bottom of the market only needs two conditions. First, the policies required by the main institutions are fulfilled, and second, the main funds enter the market on a large scale. To judge whether the bottom is formed by these two basic conditions, we should try our best to reduce the probability of failure in bargain hunting and prevent ourselves from copying halfway up the mountain. On the previous trading day, there was a situation of killing more and killing less in the market, mainly because the fund was shorted, which was caused by the redemption of the fund, which offset the income from the opening of the new fund. The panic selling of funds is different from that of retail investors, which is very destructive to the market. Now there is also a serious market target differentiation within the organization, which will make the fund's actions contradictory and make the market unstable. No matter where the bottom is, if these two conditions are not met, it is not the bottom. Some indifferent benefits are just to ease the decline of the stock index. In view of the huge risk of current positions, investors are advised to control their positions below 1/3 to cope with the uncertainty of the current market. Because the quantity is not ideal, the stamp duty adjustment has not been fulfilled for the time being, so it is just a rumor. It is necessary to prevent the main force from deliberately creating boosting positions and lightening positions. As the conditions have not yet appeared, please be cautious about oversold rebound. Now in the case of too many market uncertainties, controlling positions is to avoid risks and avoid risks. The law of the stock market will not change, the strong will always be the weak, and the essence of stock trading is the main force. As long as the main force does not intervene in the late trend on a large scale, the varieties and plates that are shipped in large quantities will not be ideal. Please keep up with the pace of main funds and minimize the risk of losing your own funds and time. Although the large-cap stocks such as finance, real estate and petrochemical, which were mainly shipped in the early stage, oversold, the rebound strength of the main funds without large-scale intervention is still cautious. Only when the main force is involved in this kind of plate on a large scale can it be considered as a real hot spot switch, and the ups and downs in a day or two do not mean anything. It is purely a personal opinion, please adopt it carefully. Good luck. 3500 points is no longer the point of capital competition, and may become a turning point for bulls and bears. If the market can't recover 3500 points in the afternoon, the main funds still don't enter the market on a large scale. It is recommended to hold the money in your hand for the time being to avoid risks.