Original products, plagiarism is prohibited, and offenders will be prosecuted.

In the international market this year, the biggest variables are energy and food.

Looking back at this year's crude oil market, crude oil prices have fluctuated at a high level this year. With the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices experienced two big jumps in March, and both American oil and oil distribution once broke through the mark of 130 USD/barrel, refreshing the highest value since 2008.

However, with the arrival of a series of "remedial" measures and other bad news, oil prices fluctuated all the way down, but basically hovered around 100 USD/barrel.

There are several negative factors:

First of all, although geopolitical conflicts are still going on, the market's concerns about the sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices caused by conflicts are gradually declining.

Or, to be more precise, since the conflict has lasted for more than a month, the worrying mood can't always be at a high level, and the impact on the market is naturally getting smaller.

Second, the downstream demand was destroyed by the skyrocketing oil price, and the demand weakened.

The International Energy Agency predicts that the growth rate of global oil demand will drop to 99.4 million barrels per day in 2022, down by 260,000 barrels per day.

Third, recently, the International Energy Agency and the United States jointly stated that they would release a total of 240 million barrels of strategic crude oil reserves, which also eased the market gap in a short time.

However, although there are many negative factors, it is difficult for oil prices to plummet.

First of all, after the second quarter, the crude oil market will enter the traditional consumption peak season, and the demand will naturally turn from weak to strong.

Second, according to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russian crude oil exports will be reduced by 7 million barrels per day due to relevant sanctions, instead of the 3 million barrels per day predicted by the International Energy Agency. Therefore, although there are 240 million barrels of crude oil reserves released, it is obviously almost impossible to make up for such a huge gap.

Third, global stocks are currently at a low level. When the war reserve is released again, the crude oil market will lack the buffer force to resist fluctuations. Once the market fluctuates, oil prices may fluctuate more violently.

It is also under the influence of these factors that on April 12, the international crude oil price regained lost ground again, and American oil rebounded to 98 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.9%; Brent crude oil, on the other hand, returned to above 100 USD, reaching 102.7 USD/barrel, with an increase of 4.3%.

Therefore, in the short term, negative and positive factors are mutually contained, and the crude oil market may stabilize at a temporary high level.

However, in order to stabilize oil prices, the US government recently lifted a ban, which may lead to another change in the corn market.

Recently, the U.S. government urgently exempted the ban on the sale of high-proportion ethanol gasoline in summer, and will allow the sale of ethanol gasoline mixed with 15% from June to September.

In China, the use of corn and other grain and oil products to produce biofuels is strictly controlled, but in Europe and America, the use of grain and oil to produce biofuels is extremely common.

From 20021to 2022, the total corn consumed for fuel production in the United States is about 654.38+36 million tons, accounting for 35% of the total corn production in the United States in 20021year, equivalent to 73% of the total global corn trade.

At present, the oil price has soared to about 100 USD. It is estimated that it is profitable to make ethanol fuel from corn when the oil price exceeds $75/barrel. Although the current corn price has also risen sharply, there is still room for profit compared with high oil prices.

After the above ban is released, it means that more corn will be "burned" and the overall demand for corn will increase.

On the other hand, the price of fertilizer has soared this year. Previous reports on American planting intentions showed that American farmers' willingness to plant soybeans increased significantly, and soybeans and corn had a good impression on each other, which also meant that corn planting would decrease.

The decrease in supply and the increase in demand have undoubtedly laid the groundwork for the price increase in the corn market.

This reaction has already appeared. On April 12, the US corn futures price once rose to a high of $7.79/bushel, the highest since March, and the increase of corn this year has exceeded 30%.

At one time, the market doubted whether increasing corn production of biofuels could effectively stabilize high oil prices, but it undoubtedly played a great role in boosting the corn market.

Therefore, it can be predicted that the subsequent changes in the corn market will not be small, and this storm about food has just begun.

Welcome to collect the New Concept of Agriculture and learn about the new development of agriculture, countryside and farmers in the new era.