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What is the role of speculators in the futures market?
Speculative trading can increase market liquidity and bear the risks transferred by hedgers in the futures market, which is conducive to the smooth progress of futures trading and the normal operation of the futures market. It is one of the important conditions for the futures market to play its hedging function and price discovery function. The role of speculators in the futures market is reflected in the following three aspects: (1) Speculators are the undertakers of futures risks and the counterparties of hedgers. Hedging trading in futures market can avoid risks for producers and operators, but it only transfers risks and cannot eliminate them. The transferred risk needs corresponding undertakers, and futures speculators play the role of taking risks in the futures market. The practice of futures trading operation proves that only hedging trading in a market can not achieve the purpose of transferring risks at all. If only the hedger participates in futures trading, then the transaction can only be established when the number of transactions between the buyer and the seller is completely equal. In this process, speculators must take great risks, and once the market price is contrary to the direction predicted by speculators, it will cause losses. If there are no speculators in the futures market or not enough speculators participate in the futures market, the hedger will have no counterparty, and the risk will not be passed on, so it will be difficult to play the role of hedging and avoiding risks in the futures market. (2) Speculation promotes market liquidity and ensures the realization of the price discovery function in the futures market. It is found that the price function is realized under the condition of strong market liquidity. Generally speaking, the liquidity of the futures market depends on the number of speculative components. If there are only hedgers, even if a large amount of supply and demand information is concentrated, it is difficult to find counterparties, and a small amount of transactions can have a huge impact on prices. Prices formed in an inactive market are likely to be distorted. The intervention of speculators provides more trading opportunities for hedgers. Many speculators actively carry out short selling activities by predicting prices, some are bullish and some are bearish. This has increased the number of participants, expanded the scale and depth of the market, made it easier for hedgers to find counterparties and freely enter and leave the market, thus making the market fully liquid. At the same time, speculators' fast-forward and fast-out in the market enables speculators to correct their own judgments on prices in time, further affecting the formation of futures prices. Therefore, in a market with good liquidity, due to the existence of moderate speculative trading, the continuity of futures prices is guaranteed, and the forward prices of commodities can be reflected relatively accurately and truly. (3) Moderate futures speculation can reduce price fluctuations. In addition, speculators in the futures market not only use short-term price fluctuations to speculate, but also use the price difference changes of the same commodity or similar commodities between different exchanges at different times to carry out arbitrage transactions. This kind of speculation makes the price between different varieties and different markets form a more reasonable structure. It is necessary to realize speculative trading and slow down price fluctuation. First, speculators need to operate rationally, and speculators who operate against market rules will eventually be eliminated from the futures market. Second, speculation should be moderate. Excessive speculation such as market manipulation can not only slow down price fluctuations, but also artificially widen the gap between supply and demand, destroy the relationship between supply and demand, aggravate price fluctuations, increase market risks, and make the market lose its normal function. Therefore, we should advocate rational trading, curb excessive speculation and crack down on market manipulation.