Apple price change law:
1. Apple prices fluctuate regularly and seasonally. Generally, the price of apples will be relatively low from August to September, and then there will be a slight rebound around the Spring Festival, and there will be a slight fluctuation in March of the following year. After April, the price will gradually rise, reaching the highest point in June-July.
2. Apple's price fluctuation is cyclical. There is a certain difference between the amplitude of apple price fluctuation and the length of periodic fluctuation.
3. The consumption of fresh food is positively correlated with the price of apples, and the price of substitute fruits is negatively correlated with the price of apples.
There are four reasons for the sharp rise and fall of apple futures prices: changes in supply and demand, production costs, weather conditions and national policies.
Reason 1, change of supply and demand
From an economic point of view, supply and demand is the ultimate principle that affects market price changes. Apple futures supply and demand analysis is as follows:
Supply: the supply end consists of fresh fruit output and cold inventory in the current year. Generally speaking, supply and price are negatively correlated.
Demand: The demand side consists of per capita income, number of consumers and consumption preference.
First of all, the increase in population has brought about an increase in the number of potential consumers, and Apple's consumer demand has increased. With the increase of per capita income, people's consumption ability is improved, and the consumption demand of apples and their deep-processed products is increased, which drives the price up; However, when the per capita income reaches a certain level, apple's position in the composition of consumer preferences has changed and it has become a universal necessity. After that, Apple's consumer demand remained basically stable or increased slightly.
In addition, due to the long production cycle of apples and the inventory, the total supply cannot be greatly increased or decreased within 1-2 years, which means that the supply side lags behind after the demand changes. The elasticity of supply is small, and the price changes will not change obviously in a short period of time, but there will be inertia fluctuations in a certain period of time. The reason for the sharp fluctuation of apple futures price
The second reason is the production cost.
The main cost sources of apples include planting cost and cold storage cost. Among them, planting costs include labor costs, chemical fertilizers and pesticides, fruit bags and mechanical depreciation, which have shown a linear upward trend in recent years. With the rising cost, the selling price keeps falling. In this case, it is easy to have "high yield but no harvest". It has greatly hit the enthusiasm of apple production and promoted the gradual decline of supply in the future until the price rises again.
The third reason is the weather conditions.
There is a saying in the commodity futures market that "industrial products depend on demand and agricultural products depend on supply". As the main factor affecting supply, weather has always been the main reference index for forecasting the price trend of agricultural products. Apple yield is mainly affected by two main factors: temperature and light. Therefore, to a great extent, uncontrollable weather factors have a great influence on the output of apples.
Apple yield is mainly affected by two main factors: temperature and light. If the temperature is right, the sunshine is enough and the yield increases, the quality of apples can also be improved. If the weather conditions are bad and natural disasters such as frost and drought occur, the apple yield will plummet. Although the market price will rise due to insufficient supply, the rising price cannot make up for the huge economic losses caused by the reduction of production, which will dampen the enthusiasm of fruit farmers for planting and production in the coming year.
The fourth reason is the national policy.
The impact of national policies on the price of apples is reflected in two aspects. First, the national policy under the overall economic situation. When the economic development situation is good, the macro-policy is loose, the production enthusiasm of apple market is relatively high, and the price of apple rises with inflation; If the economy is depressed and the macro-policy is tightened, the price of Apple will also drop accordingly.
On the other hand, agricultural policies have also changed, such as subsidies and exemptions for fruit farmers. The introduction of general favorable agricultural policies will stimulate the enthusiasm of fruit farmers to produce apples, increase production intensity, and thus increase supply. Although the price will drop, the interests of fruit farmers can still be protected to a certain extent because of subsidies and reductions. In addition, the change of import and export volume of apples and deep-processed products, the emergence of new technologies to improve production efficiency/quality, and the change of supply mode represented by online express delivery are also factors that affect the price change of apples.
Apple prices fluctuate not only frequently, but also greatly. The price of 20 10 soared by 28%, peaked at 20 14, and fell by nearly 16%. The appearance of apple futures provides a hedging function for fruit farmers and traders. By hedging, the risk transfer can be realized, and their interests will not be further damaged, thus enhancing the anti-risk ability of the apple industry chain and realizing the stable development of the industry. On the other hand, the price discovery function of futures plays a guiding role in the future spot price of Apple to some extent.
Wechat official account, put me in the wilderness, thank you for your attention.