Juye County is a traditional agricultural county located in the Yellow River flooded area of southwest Shandong, east of Heze City. The total area of the county is 1.308 square kilometers, the cultivated land area is 1. 1.4 million mu, and the total population is 1.02 million, including 800,000 agricultural people. In 20 13, the per capita net income of farmers in the county was 9429 yuan. For a long time, this county is a famous cotton county in China, with an average annual cotton planting of about 800,000 mu and a total output of over 654.38+10,000 tons (seed cotton). Due to the low cotton price and low cotton planting profit in recent two years, the cotton planting area has been greatly reduced. The planting area in 20 14 is 546,000 mu, and the estimated total output is 48,400 tons. Up to now, the county * * * has purchased about 20,000 tons of seed cotton, accounting for 40% of the county's total cotton output. The main reason is that cotton farmers are reluctant to sell and wait and see when cotton prices are high.

Second, the cotton market situation

1. Affected by the international market and futures prices, the standard cotton price in this area has dropped from 1 28 to 14000 yuan per ton since June. The reason is that China's cotton price has been out of line with the international market for a long time due to the influence of the national purchasing and storage guidance price and the domestic cotton market. As we all know, China's textiles are mainly exported, and the cost of raw materials is higher than the international market, so the products have no price advantage, which leads to poor sales, stagnant purchase and consumption, and losses. Recently, the contract price of Zheng Mian futures 1505 fluctuated within a narrow range around13,000 yuan, and recently dropped slightly to 128 15 yuan. Futures guide the spot, causing the spot price to fall.

2. The downstream industrial chain is not smooth. In the past two years, most textile enterprises have suffered losses to varying degrees, and their production and operation are relatively cautious. Due to the high quality and low price of imported quota cotton, textile enterprises are more inclined to strive for quotas, followed by purchasing Xinjiang cotton and national reserve cotton. For three consecutive years, the state has been purchasing and storing, and the inventory is unprecedented and difficult to digest. On the one hand, the inventory pressure is great, on the other hand, the supply of local cotton exceeds demand, which leads to unsalable sales.

3. The leading role of weather vane, the national cotton sees Xinjiang, and the national textile enterprises see Wei Qiao. Xinjiang cotton subsidies have become clear, and cotton purchase prices have also stabilized. The price of seed cotton is around 2.8 yuan -3. 1 yuan. The price is around 13500- 14000, which is equivalent to the standard level of lint. When Xinjiang cotton leaves the province, there is a price subsidy from 500 yuan. Leading the price of seed cotton in the mainland. Wei Qiao Textile is the largest textile enterprise in the world. Recently, the purchase price of lint was issued, and the standard ex-factory price was 14300 yuan.

4. Cotton farmers are reluctant to sell. This year's cotton output is the same as last year, but the quality is slightly lower than last year. The price of seed cotton decreased by 1 yuan per catty compared with last year, and now the purchase price of seed cotton is around 3.0-3.2 yuan. According to the yield of 500 Jin per mu, the cost of seed pesticide and chemical fertilizer is about 500-600 yuan, and the labor cost (such as hiring people to collect seeds, forks, etc.). ) It's about 1 0,000 yuan. Cotton farmers are unprofitable and reluctant to sell is more serious. At the same time, I also hope that the provincial government cotton subsidies can be implemented as soon as possible. So far the sales rate is less than 40%. It is understood that local cotton farmers' willingness to plant cotton in 20 15 fell below a record low. Here is a set of numbers. Take a town in the south of Juye as an example. In 20 13 and 20 14 years, the cotton planting area reached 9 1% and 87% of the total cultivated land in this town respectively. According to the survey, the cotton planting area is expected to be 60-70% in 20 15 years. Due to the good income of pepper and millet this year, the income per mu is more than 4,000 yuan, and the profit is nearly 3,000 yuan after deducting labor costs and pesticides and fertilizers. Quite a few cotton farmers plan to switch to other crops.

Third, the main problems

1. Without the target price, it is difficult for cotton enterprises to adapt in a short time. It turns out that the purchase price of seed cotton is set according to the purchasing and storage price, and the profit is stable. Now the state stops purchasing and storage, and the cotton price is handed over to the market for operation. Recently, the price of cotton has been falling, and the phenomenon of seed cotton falling before harvest often exists, which often causes enterprises to operate at a loss. Market sentiment continues to be pessimistic, cotton merchants are not optimistic about the market outlook, and most cotton enterprises stop collecting cotton or buying in small quantities to ensure that the loss value is as low as possible.

2. The cotton market is operated and regulated by the market, and risks and opportunities coexist. The boss of cotton enterprises is now in the period of ideological transformation. But market operation is the general trend. Otherwise, it is difficult for cotton products to connect with the international market. There will also be a phenomenon that the entire industrial chain is rigid and unsmooth. Cotton marketization, risks and opportunities coexist.

Four. suggestion

First, improve the subsidy policy for improved cotton varieties and raise the subsidy standard. Second, it is suggested to introduce the minimum purchase price policy of cotton to ensure the stability of cotton prices and give cotton farmers a reasonable expectation. The third is to promote cotton through science and technology, increase support for improved seed breeding, and strengthen the promotion and management of high-quality cotton. In recent years, due to climate change, the county is located in the Huanghuai River Basin, with abundant rainfall from July to August. It is suggested to develop new flood varieties and popularize them. The fourth is to improve the level of large-scale cotton planting.