Current situation of soybean market in 2022
202 1 The domestic soybean price fluctuated and rose under the favorable superposition of sharp reduction in production, farmers' reluctance to sell at high prices, and the state reserve and grain buyers buying at high prices in the market. The bean futures index once rose to a historical high of 6505 yuan/ton.
However, the weak terminal demand in the later period made the high price of Bean One unsustainable, and the high price of domestic soybean futures dropped sharply.
Looking forward to 2022, in the short term, the pace of grain sales is backward and the demand side is weak, which makes the short-term market supply loose and the price weak.
In the medium term, from June to August, it is in the stage of green and yellow, which is prone to weather speculation and the price is likely to strengthen in stages.
In the long run, with the support of policies, the soybean planting area and yield will increase greatly in 2022. With the coming of harvest pressure, soybean futures prices will return to weakness.
Experts predict the trend of soybean price in 2022.
In the short term, farmers are reluctant to sell grain under the background of production reduction, which makes the progress of farmers' grain sales in 20021/2022 obviously slow down compared with previous years, and the supply pressure has moved back. According to farmers' habit of selling grain, farmers' reluctance to sell will generally last until March to April.
Therefore, the backward shift of supply pressure offset the adverse effects of partial production reduction. In terms of demand, the number of fertile sows in China is the highest from May to June in 2020. This means that the high point of live pigs will be in March-April 2022, and the low price of pigs will still significantly suppress the demand for soy products.
Short-term soybean supply is still loose, and domestic soybean prices are expected to be weak before May 2022.
In the medium term, June-August is prone to weather speculation, and it is in a period when the supply of soybeans is green and yellow. Under the background of soybean production reduction 16.4% this year, soybean supply may be tight, and domestic soybean prices may strengthen in stages.
In the long run, the agricultural sector regards expanding soybean oil production as a major task that must be completed in 2022. Therefore, under the policy stimulus, it is a high probability event that the soybean planting area will increase and the yield will increase significantly in 2022.
After the gradual harvest of soybeans began at the end of September, the seasonal supply pressure will once again put pressure on domestic soybean prices, and the price difference between soybean I and soybean II futures will also be greatly reduced.