Therefore, it is suggested that we know more about market changes. Don't sell corn in a hurry this autumn. If we sell it later, there may be a good market.
The following are professional organizations' guesses about the long-term trend of corn:
After the bottom structure of 20 17, the shopping mall will enter the rising cycle. This is mainly an area block that needs to be increased year by year. The widening gap between production and consumption every year will continue to consume corn stocks. In the near future, when the inventory/expenditure ratio drops below 30%; Then, there will be a significant increase in corn, focusing on the pre-historical high-priced areas. Regarding this year and early next year, the concept of overall bottoming remains unchanged. According to the historical law, shopping malls will be adjusted again in June, and the low point generally appears in September (harvest); Subsequently, due to the acquisition peak season and the gap between production and sales, the quotation rose, and the increase will continue until February and March next year.
The logic of detailed speculation is as follows:
(1) April-May is spring sowing in the northern hemisphere. Together, it is also in the process of changing from cold season to peak season. At present, the shopping mall is in a situation of adjustment and rebound. At that time, the supply of shopping malls basically depended on the national reserve corn auction, and the spot was relatively hard.
(2) June-August is the growing period of corn, during which CBOT corn is easily affected by climate and presents a premium. However, domestic winter wheat went on the market in June, and its influence may make climate speculation unsafe, which simply constituted the second peak in June. Then, under the pressure of national reserve auction and wheat listing (feed substitution), corn needs to be adjusted. By August, the corn will be ripe, and the pressure of harvesting will be superimposed on it. So this adjustment usually lasts until September.
(3) September is a harvest season and the beginning of the new year 17/ 18. This is a critical period. At present, the negative pressure is the greatest, and the quotation basically constitutes a low point; Looking ahead, due to the shortage of production demand in the new year, the inventory will continue to decline, and the storage-consumption ratio will also decline again. At that time, corn is the best time to buy. Driven by the demand in winter peak season and stocking before the Spring Festival, its upward trend will continue until February-March next year.