Shanghai stock market will break through 2000 points this year.

-Huarong, spokesman of Beijing Private Equity Fund, visited He Xun Theme Salon on May 8 12.

Wonderful view: the biggest risk of bull market is to care too much about risk. After the May Day holiday, even the rising sun is not a mad cow, but a normal bull market trend. We studied the stock market in Taiwan Province Province and the western stock market. And it is normal that they can recover so quickly after falling for four or five years. India's stock market rose more than that. Mad cow's point of view is very amateur, saying that if you can't eat grapes, it will be sour. Normal bull market is crazy. The other is that many investors are accustomed to the inertia of the bear market and cannot accept the normal bull market.

In He Xun in May 438+10, I predict that it will exceed 1783 in 2006. Some market comments were crazy at that time. Now, it is more rational to look at the madman's point of view. At that time, the internal view was relatively high. The reason why I only mentioned 1783 at that time was to consider the market environment and people's affordability. If you want to look higher, people may feel even crazier. Most people are amateurs, and most people are losers. It is very likely that the market will break through 2000 points this year, and it is relatively certain. The reason why we only said that we saw 2000 points, not higher, is basically acceptable to everyone.

As far as I know, even some large institutions in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, or many new institutions, are seriously vacant in this market. As long as the index fluctuates greatly, funds will quickly enter the market. So if it oscillates, it should not be fear or danger, but provide an opportunity for a healthier and more sustainable development of the market in the future. We believe that this recent adjustment should not be fatal. Optimistically, the adjustment target is 10 moving average 1565 points; pessimistically, the adjustment target is about 20-day moving average 1500 points. In the bull market, the trend is generally stronger on Friday and stronger on Monday. A bear market is the opposite of this feature. We believe that the recent adjustment should be over soon, and it is obvious that the market will be stronger next Monday, or there will be a relatively strong trend.

Moderator: June 65438+1October 18, 2006. Facing the Shanghai stock market still hovering at 1200, Huarong left an amazing prediction at the theme salon in He Xun: "The breakthrough in 2006 1783 is nothing!" After a lapse of four months, Huarong, the spokesman of Beijing Private Equity Fund, who is famous for hunting foxes in Zhuang Autonomous Region, once again visited the theme salons 1500 and 1600 to talk about how to catch big bull stocks in the big bull market.

Huarong: Hello, netizens! As you can see, the recent market turnover is at a high level, whether it is rising or falling, it is a strong growth, indicating that the market is running into a bull market pattern. After the May Day holiday, due to the new and old sectors and some macro-policy factors, some institutions entered the market, and the entry point was relatively high, basically above 1.400. The newly entered funds were impatient and impatient in the early stage, which led to changes in the short-term supply-demand relationship in the market and made the market rise rapidly. This pattern has caused the market to be in an oscillating state in the past two days, and the index stocks have dominated the market's ups and downs. This kind of oscillation may be confusing to many investors at present, but as some institutional investors and better investment institutions in Beijing, they are still very optimistic about our market opportunities.

I remember that in June this year, at 5438+ 10, when the market was at 1200, we interviewed Hexun.com. At that time, the market was generally bearish or relatively depressed. If many funds look online, the number of points is very limited. As I said in Hexun.com, the market may break through 1783 in 2006. Now, although I also said at that time, this view is not only my personal view, but also represents the views of some powerful institutions in Beijing. However, at that time, this view was not understood by some investors, and even there were market comments that it was crazy to rise to 1783 under such circumstances. Now, the madman's point of view is more rational and professional. If this strategy is really implemented, it should get very good returns this year, including some institutions where I am an investment consultant.

Moderator: First, do you want to revise your forecast of 1783? From an optimistic point of view, 1783 is not the high point of the year, and someone saw 2000.

Huarong: Generally speaking, we were thinking more than 1783 in January. At that time, I remember saying that this is a conservative view, and the internal view may be more promising. At that time, 1783 was mentioned because of the market environment and people's affordability at that time. If you want to look higher, people may think it's crazier and don't want to believe the truth. Our market is such a market. Most people are amateurs, and most of them are losers, but most people don't want to believe correct opinions and suggestions, which is also a problem in the world stock market. Judging from the current market position, we are very confident to break through 1783. Although the recent market oscillation not only does not affect our point of view, it should expand our confidence in thinking highly of it. Similarly, when I was interviewed by Beijing TV, I also talked about a point, that is, the possibility of the market breaking through 2000 points this year is very high and relatively certain. The reason why I saw 2000 points is basically an acceptable view for everyone.

Moderator: Actually, it looks taller?

Hua Rong: Yes, if we don't combine the correct viewpoint with reality, many readers will find it difficult to accept it, so we have also taken this into account. The reasons are as follows: First, in this year's market, the theme is share reform, which is a major driving force for this round of market. At present, the share reform should enter the most critical period, and Sinopec and Shenzhen Development, the two most important stocks, will enter the share reform. The share reform of these listed companies must be a one-time success, and failure is not allowed. The second aspect is that the major shareholders of listed companies are a very important driving force for this round of market. Give a simple example. For example, there is a listed company, Baoshan Iron and Steel, whose major shareholder has increased its holdings to 4 billion yuan. Yesterday, its share price was less than the increased price. It was 4.49 yuan yesterday, and it broke through today. If a blue-chip listed company is such a powerful shareholder in this big market, its operation should get more returns or better returns. Now its share price does not reflect this. If you want to continue to expand this advantage in the future, you will definitely pull the index when Baosteel has room to rise. Thirdly, in the market, the management once had to solve the dilemma of brokerage business within one year. As far as I know, there is still a big gap between the largest brokerage firm in China and the solution. Their heavy positions have shown signs of strengthening recently. I believe that they will continue to strengthen in the later period and will continue to increase funds to help solve this situation faster. The fourth aspect is what we think is the most important. At present, China stock market is in the initial stage of growth. Judging from the operation rules of the world stock market, there will be a bull market for at least one or two years, and the valuation of China market is at a low level. There are many high-quality stocks, such as China Petrochemical, Baosteel and Changjiang Power, whose prices are all below 1 USD. This price is placed in the US stock market. If it is lower than $65,438 +0, the company should withdraw from the market. This is simply incomprehensible, or a joke. Foreign capital's merger and acquisition of China enterprises, including some relatively weak enterprises, such as cement and steel, is far from the market value of our listed companies, and we can't understand the sky-high price given. For high-quality beer listed companies, the prices given by some foreign investors are even higher than the stock prices in our securities market. Due to the further promotion of WTO, we are very strong in foreign investment, and only one or two institutions can buy all our stocks. Under this situation, due to the bear market in previous years, the value of China stock market is very different from that of internal investors. In this case, considering the national enterprise or its real value, the securities should be restored to a higher level.

Now, if this index rises to 2000 points or above, the P/E ratio is completely different from that of previous years. On the one hand, there are factors of share reform, on the other hand, blue-chip stocks have played a rising role in this round of development, so we think this rise is very healthy, and this healthy rise will continue with the intervention of OTC funds. As far as I know, even some large institutions in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places, as long as the index fluctuates greatly, funds will soon enter the market. Therefore, if it oscillates, it should not be fear or danger, but provide an opportunity for the healthier and more sustainable development of the future market and provide a new round of income for investors who have not operated well in the early stage.

Moderator: You said that it was encouraging that the market rose by 2000 points during the year, but now there are two questions you need to answer. The first is that yesterday, Teacher KIWI said that the second wave of adjustment in the bull market may be cruel. Please look forward to the adjustment that began in the last two days. What kind of area is it expected to end? Will it break through 1500?

Huarong: Because I have experienced the whole history of China stock market, I have also studied the Hong Kong stock market, Taiwan Province stock market and western stock market in our country, especially when it rose after the plunge, we suffered more losses. We believe that the recent adjustment should be a strong adjustment, which will release the current big profit-making disk. If optimistic, the current adjustment target of the relatively strong index is 1565 on the 10-day moving average, and the index at noon today is 1600. The downward space is very limited. Even in this adjustment process, if you operate properly, you will not be affected by the market. It can be seen that the current market has fallen by 3 1 point, but the number of stocks with daily limit is also very large. There are also quite a few stock daily limit, so this adjustment is not a lethal adjustment, but an adjustment to give some investors new funds to intervene in the market. Whether it is lethal in this adjustment process mainly depends on whether the profit-taking disk is large. If the stocks with large gains are in the process of adjustment, and if the internal laws and operating characteristics are thoroughly analyzed, we think that such adjustment in the near future should not be lethal.

Moderator: You stressed that the adjustment itself is relatively strong and does not have lethal adjustment, but we noticed that the non-ferrous metal plate has fallen for three consecutive times. Do you think this adjustment will mean that their adjustment will end faster?

Huarong: We study the non-ferrous metal plate with such a characteristic. Most of these stocks are institutional positions, while other investors often keep selling during the rising process, and their chips are relatively concentrated. So the decline only reduces the profitability of most investors who hold stocks. It should be said that there are also a few people who can't operate stocks who are stuck in a high position and even lose a lot. For investors as a whole, the loss of confidence is limited, and even brings profit hope to the market. A considerable number of institutions will turn over and buy stocks with little increase after these varieties come out, and continue to bring new strength to the market rise. Judging from the form of bull market, the adjustment of these stocks is generally strong today. In the bull market, the trend is generally stronger on Friday and stronger on Monday. A bear market is the opposite of this feature. We believe that the recent adjustment should be over soon, and it is obvious that the market will be stronger next Monday, or there will be a relatively strong trend.

Moderator: You said that the Shanghai stock market is expected to see 2000 points this year. This week, the largest single-day trading volume in Shanghai reached more than 53 billion, which is the first single-day trading volume in the history of Shanghai. As the old saying goes, the sky is one foot high and the ground is ten feet high. Don't you think there is some basis for the empty statement that the market is close to the top?

Huarong: This view is old-fashioned, or a relatively backward analysis method. There was a similar analysis method in the early stage. For example, some institutions or some investors think that 1300 is an unbreakable top, and the power of shorting is also great. These people have all suffered losses. The upper line from 2245 to 1783 was 1450. These methods are all traditional technical analysis methods. These methods are still effective in local bull markets and bear markets, but the current pattern has changed. At present, the market is in the process of a relatively strong or bull market, so it is necessary to use this market to determine the latest standard of stock price, or to analyze the market with new strength. At that time, I had already explained the reasons for the market strength, such as the reasons for the valuation changes, such as the reasons why the management supported the healthy development of the securities market in all aspects. Generally speaking, in the market, technology is subordinate to fundamentals, and fundamentals are subordinate to capital. Now the capital and fundamentals are in a strong market, so we think this is also a relatively backward judgment. Under such circumstances, there is no obvious trend at present. We basically advise hundreds of millions of big customers in Beijing to hurry up this week.

Moderator: You said that you saw 2000 points during the year. How much moisture is this?

Huarong: The reason why it is a conservative view is to consider this aspect, because China Petrochemical has gained a lot in this round of market. It should be said that there are many stocks in 20 yuan in history, and stocks with a few dollars 10 are still in the position of 2-3 yuan. This is also a reality. In this reality, we should fully consider the situation and face the reality. After China Bank and some other large-cap new shares went public, it was very fast for the market to break through 2245 points, or it was much easier than everyone thought. Under such circumstances, everyone should intensify stock selection, learn new investment thinking and innovative technologies, and throw away analytical technologies that are not suitable for the current market as soon as possible. If it is not suitable for the market, it will not operate smoothly even in the big bull market, including investors who can really make money near 1600 at present, if viewed in absolute proportion.

Moderator: According to your point of view, assuming there are no new blue-chip stocks in the market, how high do you think it will be this year?

Huarong: If the water content of new shares is excluded, the fundamentals of China Petrochemical, Baoshan Iron and Steel and Changjiang Electric Power should reach a balanced state after rising to 2000 points, and the upward force will not be particularly strong. When we see such a point, we feel that the reasonable point is around 2000 points, but our market has such a feature. Once it falls, it will rise too much, which is the trend.

Moderator: The equilibrium area is 2000 points. What is the price-earnings ratio corresponding to 2000 points? Some people say that the current P/E ratio of 2005 1600 is 27 times. Is yours more than 30 times?

Huarong: I can't say that either. Another round of rising plate is the concept of resources, and its performance has improved rapidly. To give a simple example, for example, Nanning sugar industry was a loss-making stock a few years ago, but in this round of market, the increase is very large and the performance growth is also very fast. The domestic A-share market is already a global market, so the valuation of a global market and a closed market is obviously different. In particular, China's economic status plays an important role in the world structure. Just now we talked about some listed companies in cement, beer or steel. The M&A price offered by foreign investors is unbelievable even to the negotiators of our major shareholders. My highest price is not as good as others' lowest price, so I just said that the market should be innovative and adapt to the new market.

Can't look at the market with a simple price-earnings ratio? Yes, not a necessary and sufficient condition.

Moderator: 1600 How to choose bull stocks? What kind of way of thinking?

Huarong: At the time of summing up, we found the following points worthy of our great attention. First, the stock with the biggest increase in this market focuses on share reform. Many stocks have gained huge profits through share reform. For example, the 000 175 zinc industry shares, which had a large increase, mainly rose by more than 30% in one day, and rose by 54% last week. Only the share reform is possible. Second, scarce resources, such as 600888 Xinjiang Zhonghe, have 6-7 daily limit overnight. I'm talking about some typical representatives. Two or three daily limit of other stocks are also common, and the range is very large. Most stocks have this characteristic. From the perspective of scarce resources, it is mainly some metal futures or some varieties of agricultural products, such as gold and Xiamen tungsten industry. It is also a unilateral and independent rising storm in this process, basically doubling the market. We also see the possibility that listed companies can increase by 80% or even 100% if they combine scarce resources. The main point of the third bull stock is that the major shareholders increase their holdings. We believe that one of the main forces of the market is the major shareholder of listed companies. In some listed companies, when major shareholders buy back shares, the share returns are very fierce. For example, shandong aluminum industry also rose, and the major shareholders also rose after increasing their holdings. The fourth point of our statistics on bull stocks is the appreciation of RMB, which is also the most important driving force of this round of market. RMB appreciation is an important foundation. In this round of market, the trend of Vanke real estate stocks or some Minsheng Bank stocks is relatively healthy and good, giving people satisfactory returns. The last point is the restoration of investor confidence and the promotion of new funds. At present, China stock market has formed a capital depression. With the opportunity of the stock market coming, this part of the funds poured into the stock market, resulting in a short-term imbalance between supply and demand. Even if their new fund has no fundamentals and no theme support, it also takes a fancy to the gains of some low-end stocks. Recently, with the adjustment of the market, we have seen the emergence of new points, that is, leading the rise and making up the rise, that is, the stocks that were not optimistic in the early stage began to start a new launch. Therefore, these six points plus short-term stimulus have become the most important technical preparation for our stock selection. I'm mainly talking about adopting these methods in a new way of thinking. Just now, I talked about the share reform, scarce resources, RMB appreciation, leading the rise and making up the rise, all of which are past analysis and rarely involved, or investors in the past were not very familiar with the new operating technology in this area.

Moderator: The hot topic you talked about here seems to be the most conservative. For example, the concept of RMB appreciation, bank stocks, real estate stocks rose more than 50%, hot metal stocks rose more than 2 times. Do they buy bull stocks or not?

Huarong: My last point in this round of market is to lead the market to make up for it. For example, in the process of market rising, everyone saw that the previous share reform had a great increase. At present, there are still dominant stocks that have not been reformed, so this round of market is dynamic. For example, scarce resources and metal stocks have also increased significantly, and they are currently being adjusted. As resources become a hot spot, some listed companies will emerge new resources, such as Great Wall, which used to be fundamental and now it is also a continuous daily limit. We believe that new resource stocks will enter the market, and so will the repurchase of listed companies. This situation is that share reform and scarce resources are widespread. The appreciation of RMB is like banking stocks. Minsheng Bank is very strong, and the backward growth rate is worse than that of China Merchants Bank. Some new shares took over the stock baton with a large increase. For example, Vanke's early trend was very strong, and some stocks that rose better than it, such as Shenzhen Great Wall, were relatively healthy stocks. In June, Shanghai will hold a global real estate conference, and today's real estate healthy development policy is introduced. We believe that the new real estate sector will have a new trend of new capital intervention in the sky from next week, so listen carefully, I am talking about the profit model. This model has six main points. Among these six points, first consider the leading and supplementary growth, and then consider the short-term theme. By understanding the relatively large institutions in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, especially those newly preparing to enter the market, they pay attention to the two sectors, which is worthy of our analysis. The first real estate sector. The main reason is the irreversible trend of RMB appreciation. In forward futures trading, the RMB against the US dollar reaches 1:7.5, and it will definitely reach these levels in the future, so that banking stocks and real estate stocks will be the leading stocks in the new round of market. The global real estate conference will be held in Shanghai in early June. Hot topics and foreign funds are optimistic about China real estate. Coupled with the introduction of China real estate control policy today, it is expected that there will be a relatively large increase in real estate these days. For example, today, it is said that new shares will be issued soon, and it is easier to issue new shares, that is, small and medium-sized stocks. Small and medium-sized board stocks, like real estate stocks, have seen limited gains in recent times and have been fully adjusted. These stocks will show a very good growth trend. If we consider the scarce resources again, there are shares, such as 10 to 10. 10 will get 8 free shares and some unreformed high-quality shares, which will be the target of the next phase of new funds snapping up. This year, the market fell by 30 to 40 points, and the small and medium-sized board stock market fell sharply, instead of falling, it rose.

Moderator: Can you summarize the characteristics of this round of market? The characteristics of this round of market are different from those of the past, because you have noticed that several adjustments of the market have a greater relationship with the non-ferrous metal plate of international commodity futures and a stronger linkage with Hong Kong stocks? Do you think this is a new feature of this round of market?

Huarong: Both of them are related to the market, but they are not important features. Its important feature is still the key point of stock selection I just talked about. The first is share reform, and the second is scarce resources, which also includes the scarce resources of share reform. The third is the increase and repurchase of major shareholders. In the previous stage, China Petrochemical was relatively strong, and then Baosteel's iron ore negotiations will rise in the bull market. The fourth is the appreciation of RMB, which is aimed at some real estate or some bank stocks, and the fifth is promoted by new funds. They chose not to add too much. In the short term, for stocks with the above characteristics, we should pay attention to new market hotspots, including some newly issued stocks, including SME board and real estate board. With this in mind, I will hold a seminar for institutional investors in Beijing on Friday, and prepare to own two stocks, one is 00042 Great Wall and the other is 00200 1 Xincheng.

Moderator: Now you answer the questions of netizens. Netizens are most concerned about this round of adjustment, and the end time and place are possible. Can it be estimated from two aspects: optimism and pessimism, because everyone thinks that adjustment is quite lethal?

Huarong: According to your optimism and pessimism, the optimistic view is that the position of 10 moving average is 1565, so if this is the case, we don't need to consider adjustment. This is a positive view. The other is that it has no effect on our operation, mainly because pessimists adapt to their ideas. In the past, according to the old routine, the point of the 20-day moving average was adjusted, which should be around 1500, because today's 20-day moving average is 1488, which is rising every day. Suitable for some investors who don't make money or lose money.

Moderator: Everyone is very concerned about the trading methods and nature of this round of market institutions, because some people think that this trend after the holiday is more like a powerful trading method of overseas capital operation, and less like the operation methods of domestic institutions. what do you think?

Huarong: What you just said is all speculation. We don't guess the market. After actual investigation, overseas funds have played a very important role, but there is still a gap compared with domestic funds, because from the current situation of entering the market or relatively large funds, we think there are the following aspects: the first aspect is the securities investment funds that everyone is familiar with, and they will also have some performances. At the beginning of this year, when it was predicted that 1783 was breached, it was said that the major shareholders of listed companies would become the greatest strength, and the third aspect was the newly entered institutions. None of the institutions I worked as a consultant had ever done stock trading, and I felt that it was difficult to do macro-control business in the first two years, and there was no good opportunity. So I was in a high state of mind at that time, working as an investment consultant and having Shanxi Coal Mine as a new stock investor. The fourth is insurance funds, or the enthusiasm of some large enterprises is relatively strong. In the past, listed companies or concept companies of listed companies still had some restrictions on making stocks. These funds have basically got rid of the previous ideas of financial management of securities firms, and now they are not ideal. They have basically changed to such an idea of running their own business. Finally, some overseas funds do enter the China stock market through various channels, such as buying real estate and China stocks, or buying some other enterprises. The most typical example is that some big customers in Beijing on Sunday, or some powerful ones, once reflected this point when everyone got together.

Moderator: Now everyone is very concerned about the negative impact in the future, whether it is the further strengthening of macro-control, the resumption of IPO, the resumption of refinancing, the lifting of the ban on the listing of non-tradable shares, or Xinhua News Agency's comments on mad cow. What impact do you think it will have on this bull market?

Huarong: We attach great importance to the understanding of policies. For example, refinancing can only be solved when the market trend is strong. The first policy is to hope that the market will improve, and the second policy is to make the market trend more consistent with steady growth and limited growth. So some people say that the market is unhealthy now, which is the layman's view. Some brokers (economists) always accomplish nothing, so they lose a lot of money in the bull market. There is no money in a bear market. We believe that all aspects of this market, especially the management, hope that the market will go well. I hope that the market will go well with rhythm. It requires both a continuous 60-point Dayang line and a small strong adjustment. Afternoon, we think the market is a sunny line, with a slight strong adjustment. In a few transformations, we mentioned that it is leading and making up, mainly as individual stocks. We are not particularly happy that the market continues to rise by 60 points every day. We are not pessimistic in the market adjustment, mainly to establish a profit model that suits us. Therefore, it is taboo to look at the market and actual operation by emotion. Your views are all classic layman's views, and from the fact, they are also very typical thinking of losing money and earning money.

I want to correct a point that the previous rise was not a mad cow, but a normal bull market trend. We studied the stock market in Taiwan Province Province and the stock market in the west of England. After four or five years of decline, it is a stage of rising and rapid recovery of value. It is normal for them to have such growth. For example, the Asian (Indian) stock market rose more than this. Why do some people say that there is a mad cow view? This view is amateurish. What about amateurs? If you can't eat grapes, it's sour, and a normal bull market is crazy. Another reason is that many investors are accustomed to the inertia of the bear market and cannot accept normal things. For example, if a person is hungry for many days, he can't eat a lot at once, can't guarantee his normal appetite, and can only eat a little less. This is what I just said, so I think one is backward, the other is outdated, and even affects the market destruction.

Moderator: Let's look forward to the market trends and hot spots during the year, because when you came to He Xun in June, 5438+/kloc-0, you successfully predicted that you might attack 1783 this year, and this time you predicted that you would attack 2000 points. Will you make a summary of the future rise and summarize your views?

Huarong: In May and June, the market is prime time. In the early stage, a large number of institutions stood aside. The recent adjustment has just given the new fund new opportunities. When it enters the market, it will definitely choose stocks with little increase, and stocks with excessive increase will not be its choice. Its opening operation speed will be faster, leading to the stock becoming the mainstream of the market rise, which is a trend of climbing to a new high in the oscillation. However, with the opening of the new fund at the end of May, it will rise even faster, resulting in a few stocks rising particularly sharply, not inferior to the previous bull stocks. Therefore, everyone should concentrate on stock selection with a relatively calm mind. When picking stocks, one should remember the rhythm of leading up and making up, and the other should pay attention to short-term hot spots. As far as we know, the main hot spots in the market are concentrated in two sectors, one is real estate stocks and the other is small and medium-sized board. With the issuance of new shares and the establishment of SME funds, the market value of small and medium-sized board circulation is relatively small, and it will perform better if it is fully adjusted. Some institutions are also planning to rectify the stock market, but it will be after July and August. In May and June, we mainly focus on real estate and small and medium-sized board, and then operate other stocks with 50% profit, so as to do better.

Moderator: What do you think of the warrants?

Huarong: As a professional operator, we like to do certain things. When we do certain things, we tend to stay away from unpredictable or uncontrollable things. We are afraid of uncertainty, and warrants have such characteristics. Among the warrants, some warrants still have certain investment opportunities. If put into operation, it is suicide.

Moderator: Can you remind everyone of the risks? Avoid the loss caused by impulse?

Huarong: There are two biggest risks in the market: one is the most important risk, and the biggest risk in the bull market is to care too much about risks. The second point is the rhythm of stock selection. Pay attention to the trend of leading and making up the increase. Pay attention to the short-term theme of individual stocks. Don't sit and look at stocks that have fallen at a high level, look for stocks that have risen at a high level.

Moderator: Thank you very much for your participation, Mr. Huarong. Thank you. Goodbye!

Huarong: Thank you. Goodbye.

Please come to the stock market if you want to know more about it.