In July, the CPI turned from low to high, and experts predicted that the short-term disturbance would not turn into a stable situation.
Many places have introduced ticket reduction and exemption policies, and Zhou Bianyou has recovered to 90% last year.
Market review
Market comments: The operation is difficult, and the positions are reduced on rallies.
New energy automobile industry: encourage cities with restricted purchases to appropriately increase the amount of automobile purchases.
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Futures information
Metal energy: gold 444.72, down 0.38%; Copper 50740, up 0.85%; Rebar 3835, up 0.37%; Rubber 12435, down 0.16%; The PVC index was 6495, down 0.15%; Zheng Chun 1726, up by 0.23%; Shanghai aluminum 14290, down1.11%; Shanghai nickel 1 13650, down 0.10%; Iron ore 84 1, up 3.19%; Coke was 2029.5, down1.38%; Coking coal 1207, down 0.45%; Brent oil 44.96, up1.26%; Glass 1942, up 3.91%; Liquefied petroleum gas 3937, down 0.40%; Rubber sheet is 238.85, up1.11%; Soda 15 17, up by 0.33%; PP 76 16, up 0.51%;
Agricultural products: soybean oil 6250, up 0.97%; Corn 2230, up 0.36%; Palm oil 5904, up1.1%; Zheng Mian 12 155, down 0.53%; Zheng Mai 2560, up 0.23%; White sugar 5067, down 0.24%; Apple 7 186, up 4.28%; Jujube 9300, up 4.79%; Douyi 47 13, down 0.15%; Rapeseed 592 1, down 0.84%;
Exchange rate: Euro/USD 1. 1737, down 0.42%; USD/RMB 6.9608, down 0.09%; USD/HK$ 7.7502, down 0.00%.
(The above futures data are from Shanghai Futures Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange)
Main recommendations
1, the CPI in July turned from decline to increase. Experts predict that short-term disturbances will not change the stable situation.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on June 5438+00, in July, the national consumer price rose by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.6% quarter-on-quarter. Many industry experts believe that the CPI has increased from the previous month, and the year-on-year increase has slightly expanded, but it will not change the overall situation of stable price operation in the second half of the year. Structurally, the rise in food prices is still the main factor leading to the year-on-year increase in CPI this month.
From the ring comparison, the CPI changed from 0. 1% last month to 0.6%. Among them, food prices rose by 2.8%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points over the previous month, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.62 percentage points. Dong, senior statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that with the gradual recovery of catering services, the demand for pork consumption continued to increase, and floods in many places had a certain impact on pig transportation. The supply is still tight, and the price of pork rose by 10.3%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points over the previous month; Affected by adverse weather, the price of fresh vegetables rose by 6.3%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points; Due to the decrease in the number of laying hens, the egg production rate decreased in summer, and the egg price rose after falling for 9 consecutive months, rising by 4.0%.
"The overall price increase is downward, and there is no basis for long-term inflation or deflation. It is estimated that the average annual increase will be within a reasonable range. " This is the judgment made in the China Monetary Policy Implementation Report recently released by the central bank.
According to the report, since the second quarter, the prices of various commodities have rebounded to varying degrees. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI has turned positive and the year-on-year decline has narrowed, which also reflects the recovery of demand. The recent floods in some provinces may have some impact on the production and transportation of agricultural products. The rapid rise of money supply in developed economies may push up commodity prices in the future. In addition, the impact of global epidemic evolution and prevention and control measures on supply chain and industrial chain is still uncertain. We still need to pay close attention to the short-term price fluctuations that may be caused by various factors.
According to the report, in the medium and long term, China's economic operation is generally stable, the total supply and demand are basically balanced, the supply-side structural reform is further promoted, the role of the market mechanism is better played, the monetary policy remains stable, and the monetary conditions are reasonable and moderate. There is no basis for long-term inflation or deflation.
Comments: In July, food prices rose by 2.8%, with an increase of 2.6 percentage points over the previous month, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.62 percentage points, which was the main factor leading to the year-on-year increase of CPI in that month. In July, floods occurred in many places in China, which affected the transportation of live pigs and was also an important reason for the rise in food prices. With the weakening of the impact of epidemic and flood on agricultural products transportation, it is expected that the grain price will remain stable in the future. The impact of this news on the market is neutral.
(investment consultant? Jin Cai? Certificate number of registered investment consultant: S02606 1 1090020)
2. Many places have introduced the policy of reducing or exempting tickets, and Zhou Bianyou recovered to 90% last year.
According to qunar. com. Com, judging from the recovery in the first week of August this year, the number of scenic spots booked nationwide has increased significantly compared with the previous two months. Since July 15, the number of scenic spots in China has been relaxed to 50%, with a faster growth. Qunar. com Com data shows that since the resumption of "inter-provincial travel", the demand for various tourism products has increased. Among them, inter-provincial Zhou Bianyou has recovered to 90% of the same period last year, becoming the hottest tourism product this summer.
Comments: The gradual recovery of domestic tourism is expected to benefit domestic tourist attractions and tourist hotel enterprises. It is expected that related concept stocks will have the opportunity to perform in the market outlook, and they can participate appropriately when the stock price fluctuates. It is not recommended to chase up.
(investment consultant? Jin Cai? Certificate number of registered investment consultant: S02606 1 1090020)
Market review
1, market comment: It is difficult to operate, so lighten up on rallies.
On Monday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower and oscillated higher, and the market turnover decreased compared with last Friday. The total turnover of the two cities was1157.6 billion yuan. Specifically, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.75% at 3,379.25 points. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.06% to close at 13657.3; The GEM index fell 0.53% to 2,735.26 points.
On the disk, household goods, railway infrastructure, building materials and insurance sectors performed strongly, while non-ferrous sectors, biological vaccine stocks and consumer electronics stocks performed relatively weakly. The high-level theme plate began to oscillate, showing signs of chip loosening, and the hot money in the market chose to attack the low-level railway infrastructure and other plates, indicating that the risk appetite of funds is decreasing. From the trend point of view, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at the 5th day, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the Growth Enterprise Market Index did not follow. It is expected that in the next volatile market, the trend of Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will be slightly stronger than that of Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and Growth Enterprise Market Index.
Operationally, the index closed higher driven by financial stocks, but the trading sentiment of individual stocks decreased, and the market entered a relatively difficult operation stage. It is suggested to lighten the positions appropriately on rallies and avoid high stagflation theme stocks. In terms of opportunities, it is suggested to pay attention to cyclical stocks with low valuation and expected price increase, military concept stocks with compensatory demand, rare earth permanent magnet concept stocks with defensive attributes, and agricultural stocks.
(Investment consultant Yang Dong? Certificate number of registered investment consultant. :S02606 15080007)
2. New energy automobile industry: Encourage cities with restricted purchases to appropriately increase the amount of automobile purchase restrictions.
Industry news: 1) Development and Reform Commission: In the second half of the year, encourage cities with restricted purchases to appropriately increase the purchase restriction of automobiles and relax the purchase restriction of new energy vehicles; 2) Ministry of Communications: Promote the "new infrastructure" of transportation and achieve remarkable results in 2035; 3) Ministry of Communications: support the use of new energy vehicles to rent passenger cars; 4) Yunnan plans to build 40,000 charging piles by 2022, and the production capacity of new energy vehicles will exceed 65,438+10,000; 5) The Shenzhen Municipal Government has introduced 400 million vehicle replacement subsidies, which can be applied online.
Comments: The statement of the National Development and Reform Commission shows that the automobile purchase restriction policy is expected to be further relaxed in the second half of the year, and the support of local governments for new energy vehicles is expected to be further enhanced, which will help to effectively rebound sales in the second half of the year. Companies that pay attention to the supply chain of international car companies such as Tesla and Volkswagen.
(Investment consultant Yang Dong? Certificate number of registered investment consultant. :S02606 15080007)