The price of live pigs rose more than expected? According to reports, pork concept stocks set off a wave of daily limit, leading A shares. Up to the close, there are more than 10 shares in Science and Technology, Tiankang Bio, Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Mu Yuan, Aonong Bio and Gold. At one time, Shi Wen's share price rose by nearly 12%. In the domestic futures market, the pig futures price is also breaking the historical record. At the close, the main contract of live pig futures rose by nearly 8% to close at 22,695 yuan/ton, setting a record of more than 1 year.
Since the beginning of this year, the pig breeding industry has suffered continuous losses and continued to cross the break-even line in May. After that, with the continuous rebound of pig prices in late June, the highest breeding profit has been expanded to more than 5 yuan/kg.
Is the new pork cycle about to begin? Judging from the supply and demand of the whole market, the northern region was affected by de-capacity in the middle of 20021year. In fact, the supply of pork decreased significantly this year, while the large-scale farmers in the south were affected by the rainy season, and their slaughter also had a certain stage effect, which led to the reduction of the supply sources of the whole pork market.
Therefore, in this context, the summer vacation was originally the off-season of pork consumption, but because many farmers were obviously optimistic about the later market and reluctant to sell it, it actually directly led to the shortage of the whole market. In the case of relatively rigid demand, the background of insufficient market supply directly leads to a rapid rise in pork prices, which is the core reason for the current rise in pork prices.
In fact, pork prices have been at a low level for some time. With the gradual improvement of the overall national regulatory policies, the supply of pork has actually declined to a certain extent, which is an objective law of market development. Therefore, judging from the current market development, it is normal for pork prices to rise to a certain extent.
In a sense, the pork cycle has shown signs of bottoming out. Although it will take some time and process to bottom out, it is not realistic for pork prices to fall again on a large scale, and the trend of pork prices rising has become increasingly obvious. Therefore, from the current point of view, the pork market as a whole will show a trend of rising prices, which we can clearly recognize.
Judging from the long-term market development, the current pork cycle has indeed begun to enter the possibility of an upward cycle, but we must not forget one thing. As for the current pork market as a whole, the market is still in a state of imbalance between supply and demand, and it is not ruled out that pork prices may still go down in the future.
So at present, we don't have enough reasons to prove to the market that pork has entered a complete unilateral upward cycle. However, for most pork enterprises, there is indeed a certain market growth space at present, and the original low-profit stage of pork enterprises may gradually end, so it will be a favorable situation for the whole pork enterprise.