In the past week, the gold futures market showed signs of bullish, but speculators reduced their long positions, while commercial traders reduced their short positions. Usually, when the big turning point appears, the judgment of commercial traders is correct. However, from the perspective of total positions, speculators are still bullish and commercial traders are still bearish. The message of this situation is that in a few weeks, the market may usher in the best entry position of 20 19.
However, the case of silver is more interesting. In the silver market, speculators hold a large number of net short positions. The last time speculators held a net short position was in September 20 18. At that time, silver rose all the way after bottoming out, and this wave of growth did not end until February 20 19.
The ratio of gold to silver, which measures the price difference between gold and silver, has reached a new high for many years. In the past, after the ratio of gold to silver soared, the precious metal market would go up. At this time, silver usually outperforms gold.
Bill Baruch, president of Blue Line Futures, said that the gold/silver ratio recently tested 89, reaching a new high of 1993, because the price of silver has not recovered, but now is a good time to buy silver. Last Thursday (May 23rd), spot silver followed gold, reaching a maximum of 14.63 USD/oz. At present, there is a moderate callback, oscillating at the level of 14.56.
Baruch said that the price of silver is currently close to the level of 14 USD, which is probably the bottom of the price of silver, because the cost price of silver produced by many companies is about 14 USD/ounce, so it can be bought from this level. If the price of silver does not fall to 14, then another good way to gain exposure is to sell the put option of 14. He also stressed that bottoming out is a process, not a point, and investors should pay close attention to the trend of silver prices.
At the same time, he said that if the price of silver fluctuates upward from the bottom, then the price of gold should also rise. He believes that the current gold price situation is very good, which is also in line with the macroeconomic prospects. $65,438+$0,255 has a lot of support.
Clive Maund, an analyst, analyzed the trend of silver price from a technical point of view, which also confirmed the above viewpoint. He said that the current trend of silver is far weaker than that of gold, but this is a normal phenomenon at this stage of the cycle. According to the current trend, the price of silver is likely to form a double bottom at the bottom of 20 15. If so, then the bottom of 20 15 should become the current support level.
Judging from the trend of silver in one year, the price of silver seems to be forming a complete shape of cup handle, which is parallel to the shape of gold, but the handle of silver is slightly downward, pushing the price back to the lowest point in the cup. If the price of silver breaks through the downward trend of the handle, it will enter a bull market. However, under the influence of seasonal factors, this change may lag behind.
Due to seasonal factors, June is usually the worst month for silver, so the price of silver may continue to fall in the next few weeks. However, the seasonal factor is only a big background. At present, the price of silver has fallen sharply, approaching the resistance level, and there is not much room for its downside. At present, the most important concern is when the price of silver will break through the downward trend of the handle on the one-year chart.
Generally speaking, the trend of gold and silver prices in the next few weeks may be affected by seasonal factors, but the overall situation continues to improve. So June is a good time to enter the market. After June, the price of gold and silver may rise sharply, and gold may even break through the key level of $65,438+$0.400.
The gold market center shows that the spot price of gold today is 14:42 Beijing time, 1285.67 USD/oz.