After Weilai, another new domestic car-making force is welcoming its launch, and it is Li Auto.

Yesterday (July 30), after the closing of the first day of trading in the United States, Li Auto’s market value increased to US$13.92 billion. I believe that this move will bring intangible benefits to it, both in terms of popularity and financing. However, Auto Wiki believes that this "Normandy invasion plan" is far from as good as imagined. There are still many potential risks behind the rush to launch, such as products and policies. It seems that Li Xiang is also aware of this. a little.

Advance listing

On July 30, Li Auto (stock code "LI") was officially listed on NASDAQ in the United States, one day earlier than originally planned, with a high probability It was because of the full subscription in advance that the entire IPO process was moved forward.

According to Auto Wiki, Li Auto issued 95 million shares this time, priced at US$11.5 per share, which is higher than the pricing range of US$8 to US$10 in the previous prospectus, and the amount of funds raised reached US$1.0925 billion. It is the largest Chinese-concept U.S. stock IPO so far in 2020.

If calculated based on the issuance price of US$11.5 per share, Li Auto’s market value is probably more than US$9.7 billion. However, in fact, the market subscription was too hot, and Li Auto raised the opening price to US$15.5 per ADS. , an increase of 34.78% from the issue price of US$11.5. After the market opened, the stock price soared, rising by more than 50% during the session. At the final close, the company's stock price stopped at US$16.46, an increase of 43.13% from the issue price. At the same time, Li Auto's market value also reached US$13.917 billion.

According to the prospectus, before the IPO of Li Auto, Li Xiang, the founder, chairman and CEO of Li Auto, held 25.1% of the shares and 70.3% of the voting rights; Wang Xing personally held 8.9% of the shares. , with 3.5% voting rights; Yanan Shen holds 1.1% of the shares and has 0.4% of the voting rights; Tie Li holds 1% of the shares and has 0.4% of the voting rights.

After the IPO, Li Xiang will continue to own 21% of the shares, while Wang Xing and Meituan’s shareholding ratio exceeds that of Li Xiang (reaching 24%); in terms of voting rights, Li Xiang owns 72.7 % of the voting rights, while Wang Xing and Meituan enjoy 8.3% of the voting rights.

Search for landing

In addition to Ideal, which has just been listed on Nasdaq, and Weilai, which was listed in 2018, it is said that Xpeng Motors is also planning to go public in the United States in the near future. Bank of America, Swiss Credit and JP Morgan are preparing for its listing. In addition, there is news that WM Motor may be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board as soon as this year, with a target IPO valuation of over US$4.3 billion.

It can be seen that everyone is very enthusiastic about going public, especially new energy start-up companies. Some people are curious, why are they all rushing to go public?

Obviously, "advertising effect". Because once a company is listed, the major media reports are overwhelming, and analysts from securities companies are not idle for a moment. Both consumers and the government will also recognize the company and its various businesses and services more. Products, and as a "party", it will be somewhat "easier" to "encircle money" in the future.

I won’t go into details here about the benefits behind listing, such as promoting companies to establish standardized business management mechanisms, improving corporate governance structures, and improving operational quality. This situation reminds me of Auto Wiki. I learned about a game I played when I was a child. The name of the game is "Beach Landing". The player's task is to destroy the invading enemies. In reality, do these so-called "landers" look like capitalists who are "grabbing the market" one after another?

However, it is unknown whether each of them will be able to get what they want and "land on the beach" in the end. But at least one thing is certain, their lives are not as nourishing as they imagined, and they may even collapse at any time.

It’s hard to tell

From the financial report data, Li Auto’s net losses in 2018 and 2019 were 1.53 billion yuan and 2.43 billion yuan respectively, with a total net loss of 3.96 billion yuan in the two years. . As of the first quarter of this year, Li Auto's gross profit was 68.288 million yuan, with a gross profit margin of 8.02%. In the second quarter, the gross profit margin increased from 8% in the first quarter to 13.3%, and the loss narrowed from 77.1 million yuan in the first quarter to 75.2 million yuan. Don’t underestimate this “achievement”. Weilai, which had just gone public ( The losses in 2016, 2017 and the first half of 2018 were RMB 2.573 billion, RMB 5.021 billion and RMB 3.326 billion respectively), which is not as good as it, but don’t “idealize” your ideals just because of this.

According to the retail data of China Automobile Data Terminal, Li Auto’s sales from January to June 2020 were 1,207 vehicles, 307 vehicles, 1,475 vehicles, 2,793 vehicles, 1,993 vehicles and 1,891 vehicles respectively, with sales in 4 After reaching a commanding high point in March, there was a two-month continuous decline.

Furthermore, although Ideal ONE delivered 9,666 units*** in the first half of 2020, in fact, Ideal’s delivery volume is the accumulated orders since the start of pre-sales in April 2019. This data cannot be It truly reflects the current sales situation and is somewhat suspected of "cheating".

The point is that Weilai is not the only one to launch a second model and have achieved mass production and delivery. On the other hand, Ideal only has Ideal ONE. What is even more devastating is that according to the original plan, Ideal’s second product It will not be launched until 2022, which means that you can only buy one Ideal car in the next three years. Even during this period, Ideal will continue to upgrade and optimize around the Ideal ONE, but considering that we are now in In the era of fast-moving consumer goods, I am afraid that consumers will be tired of seeing it in three years, let alone the demand for it.

Yes, Ideal can definitely launch an Ideal ONE in the United States, but if you understand it as "it's better to have less than to overwhelm", then forget it. In fact, after Ideal Auto started large-scale deliveries, Ideal ONE experienced accidents such as brake failure, spontaneous combustion, and broken axles. Ideal itself also put forward a 53-page risk warning in its prospectus, including the possibility of vehicle performance. Failure to meet customer expectations, technical route for extended-range electric vehicles, reliance on a single product, etc.

What is even more frightening is that "pure electricity" is now basically regarded as the mainstream trend of new energy. Although the range-extending technology used by Ideal ONE can temporarily stop people from paying attention Focus on cruising range, but starting from this year, the country has included the construction of charging piles as a key area of ??new infrastructure. If one day in the future, cruising range is no longer a shortcoming of pure electric vehicles, then where will the extended-range ideal ONE go?

As to whether Li Auto has passed the most difficult time, Li Xiang said that it has not, and the more difficult times are yet to come. Car Wiki speculates that perhaps today's sentiments are the unspeakable secrets Li Xiang said. However, in any case, Auto Wiki still supports Li Xiang very much. After all, the ideal is not just Li Xiang’s ideal.

This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.