As the market's worries about economic recession continue to heat up, the poor prospect of energy demand has once again become the main factor affecting the trend of oil prices. Brent crude oil price fell below the $90/barrel mark, WTI crude oil also hit an eight-month low, and market bearish expectations continued. So today, Bian Xiao is here to sort out the knowledge about oil prices for everyone. Let's have a look!

The increase in inventory exceeded expectations and affected oil prices.

Although the oil price once rebounded by 5438+00 due to the news that OPEC will cut production in June, the expectation of weak demand still puts pressure on the crude oil market.

On Wednesday, WTI closed at 8 1.94 USD/barrel, down 4.94 USD or 5.69% from the previous trading day. Brent closed at $88.00/barrel, down $4.83 or 5.2% from the previous trading day. The spot contract of SC22 10 crude oil fell 19.6 yuan at night to 670. 1 yuan/barrel, with a decrease of 2.84%.

Affected by the downturn in international oil prices, fuel and crude oil in the domestic futures market led the decline on September 8, and chemical commodities were mixed. On the same day, the main contract of crude oil futures, 22 10, closed down by 3.6%, and the cumulative decline in the past two days has reached 7%.

According to data released by american petroleum institute (API) on Wednesday, the US crude oil and distillate stocks increased and gasoline stocks decreased in the last week. As of the week of September 2, US crude oil inventories increased by about 3.6 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by about 836,000 barrels, and distillate oil inventories increased by about 6.5438+0.8 million barrels.

Business analyst Xue believes that crude oil inventories are generally expected to decline slightly. The unexpected increase in crude oil and refined oil inventories indicates that the risk of declining market demand will be gradually exposed after the driving season in North America. In the context of global central banks raising interest rates to fight inflation, concerns about economic recession have increased. The Fed's interest rate hike made the dollar continue to strengthen. At present, the US dollar index has broken through the 1 10 mark, hitting a 20-year high, reshaping the valuation of commodities denominated in US dollars, and putting great pressure on oil prices at the macro level.

In addition, data released by China Customs showed that crude oil imports in August decreased by 9.4% compared with the same period of last year, which depressed market confidence. Repeated control of the epidemic has also dragged down the demand for oil. Since August, state-owned refineries have been overhauled, the operating rate has decreased, and the profit rate has also continued to decline. Once close to zero, upside down. The reduction of local independent refineries has restricted imports, especially the introduction of purchase restriction measures in many places, and the demand for gasoline has been generally suppressed.

Han Zheng, an analyst with Jinlianchuang, also analyzed that the three major energy consumption regions in Europe, America and Asia all have their own problems on the demand side. At present, it is widely expected that the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points at their next policy meeting. However, a more aggressive interest rate hike will have a greater impact on market inflation in the short term, inhibit economic growth, thus dragging down the growth of fuel demand and leading to a decline in oil prices.

The crude oil market is still facing downward pressure.

Since June, international oil prices have continued to fluctuate downward, completely giving back the increase during the year. However, most analysts believe that under the expectation of economic recession, the decline of oil prices has not yet bottomed out.

"Although OPEC+lowered the crude oil production quota of 10, the decline of 654.38+10,000 barrels per day was not enough to affect the crude oil supply pattern. In the case that the supply side is difficult to show significant benefits, the negative pressure on the demand side will still lead to the low pressure on oil prices. " Han Zheng believes that the expectation that Iranian crude oil will return to the market and the US dollar index will rise to a high level in the past 20 years will also increase the negative pressure on crude oil in the short term. It is expected that oil prices will continue to bottom out in the short term. Taking WTI as an example, it is expected that the trend of crude oil price will fluctuate between 75-95 USD/barrel in September.

Guo Xin futures analysis, the market will pay attention to the expectations of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to raise interest rates and the global economic recession. Data released on Tuesday showed that factory orders in Germany decreased for the sixth consecutive month, which aggravated concerns about the economic growth prospects. In addition, in order to control inflation, the expectation that the United States will continue to raise interest rates in September is also high, and the dollar continues to strengthen, which has caused great downward pressure on commodities and the US stock market. Technically, WTI crude oil price has fallen below the important support level of $85, and the market outlook may continue to fluctuate and fall.

Although the focus of the short-term market has mainly shifted to the level of economic recession, Xue believes that from the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the oil market is still tight, especially in the context of the "energy crisis" in Europe. In addition, the European and American economies will further aggravate the energy shortage in the EU after imposing the maximum price limit on Russian oil, which will raise the crude oil prices in North America and Europe, and the oil prices will not linger at the low level for long.

However, he also pointed out that in addition to the shrinking demand caused by the economic recession in the later period, there are also some risks on the supply side, and it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of the Iranian nuclear talks. If the recent Iranian nuclear agreement comes to fruition and Iranian oil returns to the international market, oil prices will remain under pressure.

What are the leading stocks in petroleum processing trade?

China Petroleum 60 1857

China Oil and Gas Co., Ltd. was established on1October 5 1999 165438. It is the largest oil and gas producer and seller in China oil and gas industry, one of the largest sales companies in China and one of the largest oil companies in the world. The company is committed to developing into a competitive international energy company and an important producer and seller of petroleum and petrochemical products in the world.

China Petrochemical 60028

The main business of China Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is oil and gas and chemical industry. Oil and gas business includes exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas; Pipeline transportation of crude oil and natural gas; Refining crude oil into petroleum products; And sell crude oil, natural gas and refined oil.

Yueyang Xingchang 0008 19

Yueyang Xingchang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is mainly engaged in the development, production and sales of petrochemical products; The company's main products are propylene, polypropylene, MTBE, liquefied gas, isobutylene, non-woven fabrics and o-cresol.

Yuxin stock 002986

Hunan Yuxin Energy Technology Co., Ltd. focuses on the deep processing of raw material C4, transforming it into the research, development, production and sales of high value-added chemical products. The company's main products are n-butene, MTBE, isopropanol, sec-butyl acetate and its derivatives.