With the appreciation of RMB, the money in the pockets of ordinary people will be more valuable. For example, RMB appreciation 10%, 1000 RMB is equivalent to 132.90673 USD. From a narrow point of view, appreciation is beneficial to the people, but if the whole country or the economic level is considered, the appreciation of RMB will bring uncertainty to the national macro-control, even bring difficulties to employment, and personal income is likely to decrease. For example, after the appreciation of RMB, the cost of direct investment in China will increase, foreign investors will reduce their investment in China, new investment enterprises may stagnate, and the scale of existing enterprises may also shrink, which will certainly affect our employment; At the same time, due to the appreciation, foreign tourists will reduce their travel and consumption in China, which will also have an impact on our service industry and tourism industry, thus affecting this part of the employed population. The appreciation of RMB will also make a large number of imported goods flood into the domestic market, so that part of the domestic market share will be occupied by foreign enterprises. These two aspects will lead to a result that some domestic enterprises need to be readjusted and many people may lose their jobs. Studies have shown that if the exchange rate appreciates by 10%, the number of employed people in China will decrease by 3810.2 million.
The impact of RMB appreciation on all walks of life;
1. Foreign exchange liabilities will benefit obviously, mainly including aviation, trade and other industries. Because these industries have more foreign exchange liabilities (especially US dollar liabilities), the appreciation of RMB will bring exchange gains and losses to these industries, especially airlines, which often have huge US dollar liabilities, so they benefit obviously.
2. Import-oriented industries of raw materials or parts will also benefit, mainly including papermaking (pulp import), steel (iron ore import), automobile (some important parts import), petrochemical (crude oil import), chemical fiber plastics (raw materials import), aviation (aviation equipment import), clothing (high-grade fabrics import) and other industries. Because these industries need to import related raw materials and parts every year, the appreciation of RMB will reduce the costs of these industries to some extent. For example, 70% of the pulp cost in China's paper industry, and 38% of the pulp is imported. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB will obviously reduce the cost of the paper industry, thus obviously improving the profitability of the paper industry.
3. Investment products industries will also be sought after by certain funds, mainly including real estate with land value, park development and other industries, and coal and non-ferrous metals with resource value. Due to the small appreciation, overseas funds may gain appreciation gains by investing in land or real estate owned by companies in these industries, thus increasing the attractiveness of funds to these investment products industries, thus triggering price increases.
4. Traditional export-oriented industries are directly impacted, including textiles and clothing, household appliances, machinery and other products. Due to the rising cost brought by RMB appreciation, the profit rate of these industries will be reduced, but we think that only 2% appreciation will have little impact. Companies in these industries, especially leading enterprises, will have strong anti-risk ability through cost reduction and appropriate price transfer.
5. Industries with international pricing will be affected to some extent, including non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, steel, electronic components and other industries with international pricing. Because the prices of products in these industries are greatly influenced by international prices, in the case of RMB pricing, the appreciation of RMB will reduce its selling price, which will lead to a decline in profits.
6. Industries replaced by imported products will also be adversely affected to a certain extent, including automobiles, construction machinery, steel and household appliances. The products of these industries are fiercely competitive with imported products. The appreciation of RMB will lead to the decline of RMB quotation of imported products, which will reduce the competitiveness of local products to a certain extent and further affect the profitability of these industries.
7. Foreign trade service industry may be indirectly damaged. Because the appreciation of RMB may bring some adverse effects to China's foreign trade, especially exports, and may bring some adverse effects to ports, airports and shipping, but the appreciation may also stimulate the increase of imports to a certain extent, so its impact is relatively small.
The impact of RMB appreciation on various industries is complex and multi-angle, and it is often a combination of negative and positive. Summing up and analyzing, combined with our analysis of the changes of profitability of key companies in various industries under the circumstance of RMB appreciation of 2%, we think that RMB appreciation is good for aviation, paper making, park development, real estate, communication operation, communication equipment and other industries, but it is not good for other industries except aviation, and has some negative effects on industries such as steel, audio-visual equipment, oil exploration, textiles and clothing, and components. However, judging from the performance changes of key companies we track, other industries are generally relatively neutral.
References:
/00/06/53/07/6530755.html