As Solon said: He who can be happy to the end can be called happy. Then, can the definition of success be: only those who are invincible can be called successful people.
It is said that Eugene Fama wrote on the last page of the University of Chicago handout: "Everything I just said is wrong."
In the past 30 years, hedge funds have been trying to reduce risks by establishing cross-portfolio assets. Having said that, you may remember what Dario of Bridgewater said about the holy grail of investment: find 15 or more better return streams with very low or even zero correlation.
Taleb put forward a strategy: taking the accident as the starting point and the average level as the subsidiary problem. This is an intelligent starting point for "global investment" to make big money.
6 Niederhoff said this: Soros is not my friend, client, or mentor; He is a lion. He did his duty, killed the weak and ordered the animals below him to kill each other.
Niederhoff's idol is Francis Galton, a scientist of19th century. Niederhoff also named his eldest daughter galt, and there is a full-length portrait of Gao Erdun in his library. Gao Erdun is a statistician and social scientist (as well as a geneticist and meteorologist).
People who regard Gao Erdun as a hero believe that everything that needs to be known is under control by sorting out and comparing the evidence obtained from practical experience and collecting all data points.
Taleb's idol is Carl Pope.
Popper advocated:
We can't be sure whether an argument is correct, but we can only be sure that an argument is incorrect.
10 in my opinion, the financial market is a "field" between natural science and social science, which includes both random walks from the physical world, mean and variance from the mathematical world, and irrational behavior from human beings.
1 1 Soros explained his core idea with two propositions:
12 Taleb tells the story of a friend named Rozan:
He once spent a whole afternoon arguing with Soros about the stock market. At that time, Soros was strongly bearish on the stock market and put forward a set of painstaking management theories. As a result, it turns out that this statement is completely wrong. During that period, the stock market was dominated by bulls.
Two years later, Rozan happened to meet Soros in a tennis match. Rozan asked him, "Do you remember our conversation? I remember it very clearly. " Soros replied, "Later I changed my mind and made a lot of money." He changed his mind!
13 Taleb's fund name is Ampirica, and Empirica comes from the word "empiricism".
But Taleb and Niederhoff have different understandings of empiricism.
Niederhoff is like a statistician in the Gao Erdun era;
Taleb, like a Bayesian empiricist, inputs his experience, not to prove it, but to update it.
14 Pope's rational attitude is that I may be wrong and you may be right. Through hard work, we can get closer to the truth. Science is science because it can be falsified and violated by any authority.
Therefore, a follower of Popper should get used to saying: I may be wrong.
15 Mark Spiznagol 16 started as an apprentice at the Chicago Board of Trade and spent 95% of his time losing money. He learned a lesson from it: "learn to bear the loss and get out in time before it becomes a disaster."
"I must be willing to be like a fool for a long time and wait for the big winner with a small loss."