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Can "supply-side reform" really bring a bull market for commodities?
Theoretically, supply-side reform will reduce output to some extent. If demand remains unchanged, demand will be greater than supply, and commodity prices will rise. However, the situation is different now. First of all, supply "reform" may not really lead to a sharp drop in output. In order to maintain GDP, local governments are often not keen to shut down these enterprises, resulting in more talk and less work, and the actual output has not been greatly reduced. Moreover, on the demand side, the economy is declining, and the manufacturing industry is forced to transfer costs to Southeast Asia on a large scale, and the demand will shrink. One is positive, the other is negative, and the intervention of speculative forces should be considered in the middle, which will inevitably lead to price fluctuations and shocks of bulk commodities in the future. As for the bull market you mentioned, will it be one bull market after another? You know, the bull market of commodities has been going on for nearly 10 years since China became the factory of the world.