1. Real estate.
At present, the rent-to-sale ratio of houses in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen is below 1.5%, which is equivalent to more than 60 times the price-earnings ratio. The rent-to-sale ratio of houses in second-tier cities is 3% to 4%, which is equivalent to a price-earnings ratio of about 30 times.
From the data point of view, housing prices in first-tier cities are obviously overvalued, but due to limited supply,
Moreover, the demand is relatively large, and the valuation may not return to a reasonable level soon. This is somewhat similar to the situation of A-share new shares. As we all know, compared with the old stocks in the same industry, the price of new shares is obviously overvalued. However, due to the limited number of new shares in a period of time and the large amount of new funds, it is often difficult for new shares to return to the industry average valuation level immediately. Some new shares even take several years to realize the return of valuation, and the way of valuation return is not necessarily the way of stock price decline, and some are realized by the way of performance growth and stock price sideways. However, high-valued new shares are easy to lose to other stocks with reasonable valuation in the same industry within a few years after listing. The same is true of housing prices in first-tier cities. At the current valuation level of 60 times the P/E ratio, it is difficult to continue to increase the P/E ratio. The most optimistic situation in the future is that the rate of house price increase is consistent with the rate of rent increase, that is, the rate of CPI growth remains almost unchanged, and the price-earnings ratio remains unchanged at about 60 times.
The pessimistic situation is that the house price has a rapid valuation return and has fallen sharply in the short term.
The price-earnings ratio of second-tier cities is at a reasonable high level. Because the relationship between supply and demand is not as tense as that in first-tier cities, it is difficult for housing prices in second-tier cities to rise from the current reasonable high level to the obviously overestimated level. If the real estate market is generally stable in the next few years, housing prices in second-tier cities may keep pace with rents, and individual second-tier cities may have the opportunity to raise their valuations from reasonably high to obviously overvalued. If the real estate market is turbulent, second-tier cities may fall more sharply than first-tier cities in the initial stage of the turmoil, just like stagflation stocks in the bull market in the early stage of the bear market, but the total decline will be less than that in the first-tier cities in the later stage.
On the whole, because real estate has been the largest asset class in China in the past 20 years, from the perspective of rotation, it is doomed that real estate will underperform many other types of assets in the next 20 years.
2.a shares
At present, the valuation level of A-share market is divided. 20% stocks are at a reasonable valuation level (represented by big blue chips), and 80% stocks are greatly overvalued (represented by small and medium-sized enterprises). Because the low-valued stocks of 20 16 are generally stronger than the high-valued stocks, the differentiation of this valuation level has narrowed compared with the beginning of 20 16. But because of this, at the beginning of 20 16, a few valuation depressions in the market have almost been filled in, and it is difficult to find a subject matter that is greatly underestimated in A shares at present. 80% of the stocks are still overvalued, although their valuations have declined.
As for the future trend of A-shares, speculators have repeatedly said that historically, after every bull market, A-shares will always have several stages, such as sharp decline, strong rebound, wide fluctuation and shrinking trading volume. The guess is that this time will be no exception. After the momentum of placarding of insurance funds is curbed, there is no longer an incremental source of funds in the market, while IPO, fixed increase, size and stamp duty are constantly drawing blood. One day, the market will enter a long-term negative decline mode until the valuation is too low, the major shareholders change their shares and increase their holdings, and the IPO is suspended, and the market will enter the bottom of the real decline. The reason why the 20 16 market is doing well is that some blue-chip stocks are indeed undervalued, and the allocation of blue-chip stocks looks considerable because of the new income. However, since the beginning of this year, many blue-chip stocks have completed valuation repair and are no longer in an undervalued state. On the other hand, due to the increasing number of participants, the optimization of account allocation and market value, and the continuous increase of new shares, the future income from new investment will be greatly reduced. This year's A-share market may not be as optimistic as many people think. One of the main logics that many people are optimistic about the future A-shares is that house prices may peak, and a large amount of funds will be transferred from real estate to the stock market to promote the long-term bull market in the stock market. But I think this logic is untenable in the next few years. First of all, house prices may not fall sharply in the next few years, and the return of valuation can also be achieved by raising prices without raising prices. As long as nominal house prices do not fall, 90% of China people will not change their habit of allocating their main assets to real estate. This habit was formed through continuous strengthening in the past 20 years. It is difficult to change the thinking of most people in society who don't know the truth by relying on the prediction of housing prices by several rational investors. Everyone is unwilling to sell the house, so how can the assets be transferred to the stock market? If house prices really fall sharply in the next few years, then a systemic financial crisis will surely break out in China. It is difficult for people with houses to sell houses and cash out, and those who have the opportunity to cash out will certainly not immediately put the money from selling houses into the stock market when there is a systemic financial crisis. Putting money in a safe place such as a bank is the choice of most people. A sharp drop in house prices will lead to depression in many industries, which will definitely make A shares fall sharply in a certain period of time, not to mention a long-term bull market.
20 17 Speculation judges that the A-share index may continue to fluctuate widely in the range of 3,000 to 3,300 points in the first half of the year, and the market will gradually change from wide fluctuation to bearish mode in the second half of the year when the new income is obviously reduced and the market expects the central bank to raise interest rates.
3. Hong Kong stocks
At present, Hong Kong stocks have risen a lot compared with the beginning of 20 16, and the valuation level has almost entered the normal valuation range of Hong Kong stocks, but it is still at a low level in the normal range. From the current point of view, the substantial underestimation of Hong Kong stocks at the beginning of the year is indeed an opportunity to obtain excess returns. However, after the current valuation enters the normal range, the allocation of Hong Kong stocks can only get the benefits of sharing the company's future growth, and there are not many opportunities to get the benefits of valuation repair. However, the main allocation of speculation is still in Hong Kong stocks. On the one hand, Hong Kong stocks are still one of the low-valued markets in the world, and assets bought at low valuations will have a good yield in the long run. On the other hand, due to the opening of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the two stock markets have successfully established a channel, just like adding an interconnected pipeline between the two pools. In the long run, the valuation levels of the two markets should gradually converge, which will lead to a-share valuation decrease and Hong Kong stock valuation increase. In addition, there are many companies whose main assets are in the United States or Europe. The allocation of these companies can hedge the depreciation of the RMB. Of course, the current low valuation of Hong Kong stocks is due to the fact that international capital is not optimistic about China and is worried about the financial crisis in China in the future. Whether this kind of worry is right or wrong is hard to say clearly at present, and we can only wait for future verification. However, since the valuation of Hong Kong stocks is lower than that of A-shares, if there is a real crisis in China in the future and the economic growth rate drops sharply, the return rate of Hong Kong stocks will be at least higher than that of A-shares. Therefore, from a pessimistic perspective, the allocation of Hong Kong stocks can also be understood as the lesser of two evils.
4. Commodities
20 16 can be said to be a big year for commodity futures, and the increase of industrial products is amazing. At the beginning of 20 16, speculators were mainly optimistic about agricultural products and not about industrial products. But the actual result is that, due to the monetary easing and the promotion of infrastructure projects, real estate and various industrial materials have become the scarcest resources, and their prices have risen sharply, no less than in 2009 and 20 10. Because the price elasticity of agricultural products is small, the increase is lagging behind. However, from this year, the price of industrial products is already at a high level, and it is unrealistic to continue to rise sharply. Social funds may enter agricultural products with relatively low prices and relay commodities speculation. Judging from the performance of commodity markets over the years, it is often that industrial products rose sharply in the early stage and the prices of agricultural products rose sharply in the middle and late stage. Therefore, speculators continue to be optimistic about the trend of agricultural products this year and continue to hold positions in agricultural products such as oil, soybean meal and cotton.
5. golden
Judging from the long period of more than ten years, speculators are very optimistic about the trend of gold. Because the current production capacity of gold has almost reached the limit, it is unlikely to increase production in a single year in the future. More importantly, at present, the single annual output of gold is maintained for more than ten years at most, and it may decrease year by year in the next decade. On the other hand, the demand for gold is increasing year by year, and governments all over the world almost only buy it, so from the perspective of supply and demand, gold will definitely maintain a long-term bull market in the future. Judging from the current situation, if there is a big inflation, gold is a better anti-inflation tool; If the RMB continues to depreciate, gold is also a good tool to hedge the RMB depreciation, because it is an asset denominated in dollars. Personally, I suggest that each family allocate about 5% to 10% of the total assets. Using gold ETF configuration is the easiest way.
(The above answers were published on 2017-01-10. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )
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