Oil prices have gone up again. A number of data show that since the beginning of 20021,the international crude oil price has soared, with an increase of more than 60%, and the gasoline price of gas stations in various countries has also increased and then increased. As the blood of industrial civilization, every oil price change affects the development of modern society and the daily life of ordinary people.
The main reason for the recent rise in oil prices
The global crude oil supply is growing slowly. Although OPEC+maintains its production increase plan, the shortage of idle capacity has increasingly become the focus of market attention. Statistics show that the remaining capacity of OPEC+is only about 4 million barrels per day, mainly concentrated in a few oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, and it is difficult for Russia, Angola, Nigeria and other countries to increase production. 5438+ 10 In June, the output of OPEC+crude oil increased by 600,000 barrels per day from the previous month, which was 620,000 barrels per day lower than the highest output, which was lower than the agreed allowable amount for the ninth consecutive month. In addition, the growth of shale oil production in the United States is weak. At present, the crude oil production in the United States is only 1 1.6 million barrels per day, which is much lower than that before the epidemic, and it is expected to increase by 600,000 barrels per day in 2022.
Global oil demand is obviously better than expected. Since the beginning of the year, most of the diseases caused by Omicron virus strains are mild, and the global vaccination total has exceeded 654.38+0 billion doses. Many countries in Europe and America have lifted the blockade measures one after another, and the oil demand has rebounded in retaliation. At present, the oil demand in the United States has exceeded the pre-epidemic level, and the weekly oil demand once climbed to more than 22 million barrels per day, the highest level in the same period in history; Oil demand in Europe, Japan, India, South Korea, Singapore and other places has basically returned to the pre-epidemic level. With the warmer weather in the later period, the demand for gasoline and jet fuel will continue to increase, especially in the European and American markets.
Geopolitical turmoil on a global scale has intensified. In 2022, many oil-producing countries will usher in an election year, and supply disruptions will occur frequently. At the beginning of the year, Libya, Nigeria, Ecuador, Turkey and other countries have experienced sudden supply disruptions, and the market supply has tightened. Since the beginning of the year, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has affected the market nerves. The two sides continue to strengthen war warnings, and geopolitical tensions continue to bring risk premiums to oil prices. Although the probability of a large-scale war in Russia and Ukraine is low, it does not rule out the possibility of "accidental fire" in extreme cases or sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia.
The impact of rising oil prices
1, the relevant impact of supply shocks on the macro-economy. Let's talk about what supply shocks are. Supply shock means that the productivity of crude oil has changed, that is, the output of crude oil has changed, and the total export rate or resource rate has decreased due to the change of productivity. In other words, the decline of supply and productivity also affects the change of oil price rise.
2. The chain reaction caused by the rising oil price. The impact of rising oil prices will have a chain reaction. Specifically, rising oil prices will make other substitutes rise, such as the prices of coal and natural gas, and even affect the prices of unrelated products. At the same time, the biggest impact of rising oil prices is to make food prices rise rapidly, and some small partners don't understand why it will affect food. In fact, the rise in oil prices will also force related industries such as fertilizers to keep raising prices, and farmers with low productivity will be forced to give up growing grain halfway, which will also lead to an increase in residents' demand for food, so food prices will also rise.
3. The rise of oil price will also bring down the total demand, which will lead to the economic downturn. Iranian oil, for example, saves domestic economic growth by reducing oil prices.
The rising oil price will also bring turbulence to the financial market. According to different needs, it may cause certain inflation or reduce the profitability of the economy, thus triggering an economic crisis.