There are several reasons for the current price rise:

The first is excessive currency issuance, which is a common problem all over the world. Especially after the United States recently implemented the quantitative easing monetary policy, the prices of most commodities in the international market have risen sharply in the past few days. Oil has reached 87 US dollars, and cotton and sugar have risen sharply.

Second, there are also some temporary factors. For example, this year's increase in vegetable prices was caused by this year's severe weather.

Thirdly, in the process of industrialization and urbanization in my country, labor, capital, and land resources are rapidly flowing to cities, and rural production resources have been relatively reduced. This year, rural labor costs have also increased, such as Remuneration for picking cotton in Xinjiang is now calculated by kilogram, and you will be given 3 yuan for picking one kilogram of lint.

Fourth, the factor of hot money speculation. In the first half of this year, the prices of mung beans, garlic, cotton, etc. all increased. The price of cotton rose to 33,000 per ton. This is due to capital speculation. On November 8, cotton futures on the Zhengzhou Exchange traded more than RMB 30 billion a day, which was far beyond the normal range, and the turnover rate was very high. In the first half of the year, companies that hoarded and maliciously speculated on mung beans and garlic also appeared. All in all, these four reasons led to the excessive price rise this year.

Food has become the number one driver of price rise

Price increases in October hit a 25-month high. Among the new price increase factors, food prices rose by 10.1%, "contributing" to 74% of the CPI increase. For a time, the rise in prices of agricultural products (20.53,0.18,0.88%) once again aroused heated discussions among all parties.

The "rigid price increase" of agricultural inputs has boosted the "climbing" of food prices

Affected by the rising prices of resource products such as oil and coal, in recent years, agricultural inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides have Prices are generally on an upward trend. Moreover, due to the long-term "energy shortage", it is difficult to reduce the cost of agricultural inputs.

In Jiyang County, Shandong Province, farmer Zheng Qinghe calculated the investment account in detail for reporters. The investment in wheat production materials per acre amounted to about 450 yuan: agricultural machinery harvesting cost nearly 100 yuan; wheat was watered three times in one season. Water is about 60 yuan; fertilizer is about 220 yuan; pesticide is about 60 yuan; seeds is about 10 yuan. Based on a wheat yield of 400 kilograms per mu and current grain prices, the cost of agricultural inputs offsets about 56% of gross income.

“Compared with the rise in fertilizer prices, the current increase in grain prices is not large.” Wang Jingshan, a major grain grower in Juye County, Shandong Province, rents 200 acres of land. He said that it now appears that grain yields per unit area are unlikely to increase significantly in the short term, and production is mainly supported by chemical fertilizers. In recent years, the prices of most agricultural inputs have doubled, but the efficiency of growing grains has repeatedly hovered on the edge of losing money.

In the field of agricultural products such as vegetables and fruits, the cost of agricultural inputs is also rising. Jin Xianrong, an experienced vegetable farmer in Shangqiu City, Henan Province, said that the prices of fertilizers and pesticides have increased every year, and the cost of growing vegetables is now much higher than before. A 50-kg package of compound fertilizer costs more than 180 yuan, and the price is even more expensive during the spring fertilization season. Jin Xianrong planted 15 acres of eggplants and 6 acres of watermelons this year, and most of his investment was spent on agricultural supplies.

“In the past ten years, the prices of many industrial products have increased several times, but the price increase of wheat and corn has only been about 40%. Is this too much?” Many farmers told reporters that there is a gap between industrial and agricultural products. There is still a large "scissors gap".

Many people attribute the price increase of agricultural products to natural disasters, processing links, monetary policies and artificial speculation. However, from the actual situation, these are only "structural, staged and seasonal factors" and it is difficult to predict the price increase. Explain the characteristics of agricultural product prices continuing to rise.

Experts such as Zheng Fengtian, deputy dean of the School of Agriculture and Rural Development of Renmin University of China, said that in the long term, rising prices of agricultural inputs and other rising production costs are the trend reasons for rising prices of agricultural products.

Urban workers have “raised wages” and “raised” the cost of farming

In recent years, as a large number of young and middle-aged laborers have flowed into cities and towns, the phenomenon of “labor shortage” has also emerged in the agricultural sector in some places. appeared, causing rural labor prices to rise rapidly.

In Jinling Village, Shimen Town, Linshu County, Shandong Province, 66-year-old farmer Li Jingmei said that one acre of wheat requires about 20 laborers from sowing, management, harvesting, warehousing to sales. It turns out that there are fewer rural laborers going out to work. They farm their own crops and "work for themselves." The labor cost has been ignored. In recent years, the income of farmers working in cities has increased significantly, driving up the labor costs of farming rapidly.

In Xiashi Town, Pingxiang City, Guangxi, farmer Su Duanrong has planted more than 100 acres of sugar cane. The recent shortage of labor when cutting sugar cane has made him worried: "Sugar cane harvesting in mountainous areas cannot be mechanized and relies entirely on manpower, but every day You can’t find local people to work even if you pay 60 yuan.”

The rapid rise in labor costs has boosted the price of agricultural products. Taking the rise in sugar prices as an example, the Guangxi Price Department recently issued a notice to increase the down payment price for ordinary sugar cane from 260 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton. Many sugar factory directors told reporters that in recent years, labor in sugarcane areas has been relatively scarce, and companies have had to increase labor costs.

Nong Guang, chairman of the Guangxi Sugar Association, analyzed that the sharp rise in sugar prices is related to the reduction in sugarcane production caused by drought and the speculation of hot money. “However, the massive reduction in rural labor force and rising costs are important reasons for the continued rise in sugar prices in recent years.

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Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that in the process of industrialization and urbanization in my country, labor, capital, and land resources are rapidly flowing to cities, and production resources in rural areas have been relatively reduced. This year’s rural Labor costs have also increased. For example, the remuneration for picking cotton in Xinjiang is now calculated by kilogram, and it costs 3 yuan to pick one kilogram of lint.

After the international financial crisis, due to the "labor shortage" in some places, migrant workers have become more expensive. Wages have generally increased by one or two times, "which will push up the comparative cost of food production." Bao Yongjiang, president of the China Suburban Economic Research Association, believes that as my country's economy further picks up, the cost of agricultural labor will further increase, especially for agricultural products, especially vegetables. The prices of other labor-intensive products will inevitably become higher.

The "high rise" in urban land prices will lead to the "bullishness" of agricultural land.

Reporters' investigation found that as urban land prices rise rapidly, suburban areas are being boosted. Land prices are further transmitted to agricultural land prices. In addition, some leading agricultural processing companies and large growers rent land on a large scale, which has also increased rural land prices to a certain extent, thus raising the production costs of agricultural products and pushing up the prices of agricultural products.

“The rental price of farmland is now so high, which was unthinkable in the past. "In Yucheng County, Henan, farmer Wang Jiafu rented out 6 acres of responsible land this autumn at 1,000 yuan per mu per year for five years, and the other party rented the land to grow medicinal materials. He said that in recent years, the central government has emphasized the development of modern agriculture, and local renters have More and more people are planting land on a large scale to grow high-efficiency crops such as peonies, watermelons, and tomatoes, which has raised land rents.

Su Duanrong, a major sugarcane grower, also felt the pressure from rising land prices. It costs him only 200 yuan to grow sugar cane on an acre of dry land and 30 yuan on sloping land. The price of renting land has doubled this year.

“With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, the potential value of agricultural land is increasing. highlight. "Zheng Fengtian said that on the same unit of land area, the income gap between farming and other industries has reached an astonishing level. "Near the Fourth Ring Road in Beijing, the income difference between using one acre of land to build commercial housing and growing wheat is more than 300,000 times. ”

Price increases reflect “value return”

Improving food price control Zhou Wangjun said frankly that some trends in price increases are long-term. For example, due to the increase in land and labor costs, the price of agricultural products will be A long-term upward trend.

“The new round of rise in agricultural product prices reflects the rational return of the value of agricultural products to a certain extent. "Qin Qingwu, director of the Rural Economic Research Institute of the Shandong Academy of Social Sciences, said that the cost of growing grain in our country has long been high, but grain prices have remained at a low level for a long time.

"Rising food prices have become a commodity price. The number one promoter', there are also statistical factors. "Relevant experts said frankly that in the current CPI statistical structure, food prices account for about one-third. "Such a large proportion still has the characteristics of a shortage economy period, and is inconsistent with the development reality in which the proportion of food in residents' expenditures has dropped significantly. "Adaptation".

"In general, rising food prices will help increase farmers' agricultural income and protect the enthusiasm for agricultural production; but it will also affect the living standards of urban and rural groups in need. "Experts such as Qin Qingwu believe that the government should improve price control policies, clarify different situations such as hype increases and trend increases, and conduct classified controls. On the other hand, institutional measures should be taken to improve the statistical structure of prices; at the same time, the relationship between food price increases and poverty should be improved The household subsidy-linked policy ensures that the living standards of urban and rural residents do not decline.