Since the current pricing cycle of domestic refined oil products, the change rate of reference crude oil has been running in the positive range. The agency predicts that domestic refined oil products may open the retail upward adjustment window at 24: 00 on June 3, 2023+10/October 3 (next Tuesday). By then, consumers' oil consumption cost will increase, and it is estimated that it will cost more 9.5 yuan to fill a box of 50 liters of 92# gasoline.
Refined oil or open the retail upward adjustment window.
After the "three-day losing streak" of domestic refined oil products, due to the increase in crude oil prices, the domestic reference crude oil change rate runs in the positive range, so the new round of retail price limit of refined oil products may be raised after New Year's Day.
"Stimulated by multiple bullish news, international crude oil prices mainly fluctuated upward, and Brent crude oil futures returned to above $80/barrel. Affected by the continuous increase in crude oil prices, the crude oil change rate referenced by domestic refined oil products began to be positive, and then further increased, which may open an upward adjustment window for this round of refined oil retail prices. " Xu Lei, a refined oil analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said.
According to Zhuo Chuang information data monitoring model, as of the close of 65438+February 29th, the change rate of reference crude oil was 4.95% on the ninth working day of the current pricing cycle of domestic refined oil. Gasoline and diesel prices are expected to increase by 240 yuan/ton. After the price increase, 92# gasoline, 95# gasoline and 0# diesel will increase by 0. 19 yuan and 0.5% per liter respectively.
According to the current formation mechanism of refined oil prices, the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices is mainly based on the change rate of the weighted average price of international crude oil prices in 10 working days compared with the weighted average price of international crude oil prices in the previous cycle.
Yang, a refined oil analyst at Jinlianchuang, also said that according to the principle of 10 working days, the refined oil upward adjustment window will open at 24: 00 on June 3, 2023.
Xu Lei said that at the beginning of this domestic refined oil pricing cycle, the international crude oil price mainly rose. On the one hand, the optimistic expectations surrounding China's oil demand prospects overshadow the concerns that the global economic recession will drag down energy demand; On the other hand, the United States began to buy back strategic oil reserves, and the weakening of the dollar and the decline in inventories provided support for oil prices. The bullish factor dominated and pushed up the current round of crude oil prices. Although the Fed's interest rate hike expectations have slightly dragged down oil prices during this period, the overall fundamentals of crude oil are still strong.
If this round of retail price increase of refined oil is confirmed, consumers' oil consumption cost will increase. According to the above estimated price, if a private car fills up a box of 50L92# gasoline at a time, for example, it will cost more 9.5 yuan.
The upward momentum of crude oil prices may be limited.
The domestic wholesale market is in the off-season, the market lacks substantial favorable support, and the gasoline and diesel markets all maintain a downward trend. In this regard, Yang explained that in terms of diesel, the low temperature weather led to the shutdown of oil-using units such as outdoor infrastructure projects, logistics and transportation, and the purchasing enthusiasm of terminal enterprises was low, and operators still had bearish expectations for the later market. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the main units are under pressure. In order to ensure the sales of diesel, they have maintained a large number of preferential policies. In terms of gasoline, consumption has not increased significantly for the time being. However, the demand will gradually recover in the later period, and the gasoline market shows certain resilience.
Looking forward to the crude oil market, Yang believes that Russia has signed a decree to deal with western countries, which is conducive to a moderate recovery of oil prices. However, due to the approach of New Year's Day, the trading atmosphere in the market has weakened, and there is limited room for a sharp rise in oil prices, and the overall market has maintained a narrow upward trend. However, the domestic retail price increase window of refined oil products is basically determined to open, or it will form a favorable support for the weak refined oil market.
Xu Lei also believes that although geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe may disrupt the supply side, factors such as the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates will limit the upward trend of crude oil prices, and oil prices may face the risk of a high correction. Although the recent fluctuation of crude oil market transactions is light, the direction and fluctuation range of this round of refined oil retail price adjustment window are relatively clear. The next round of refined oil retail price adjustment window will open in June 65438+1October 65438+July.