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Should companies sign a gambling agreement? What are the key factors in gambling?

"Betting" can be divided into several types: between enterprises and enterprises, between enterprises and shareholders, and between banks and other financial institutions and customers.

The gambling agreement is a kind of financial derivative developed under the influence of the concept of options. The two parties to the gambling make an agreement on the future uncertainty. When the agreed conditions occur, one party can exercise a right. , if the agreed conditions do not appear, the other party can exercise a right.

Example 1:

Company A transfers the equity of a mining company to Company B, and both parties sign a gambling agreement. If the price of this type of mineral commodity in the international market is lower than a certain number one year later , then Company A needs to repurchase the transferred equity at the agreed price; and if the price is higher than the predetermined price, Company A should transfer all the remaining untransferred equity to Company B.

Example 2:

There are many examples of foreign capital deceiving state-owned enterprises that do not understand relevant knowledge and being deceived through this kind of betting.

The agreement between Shennan Electric and Jierun, a Singapore subsidiary of Goldman Sachs, is typical.

On March 12, 2008, Shennan Electric signed a gambling agreement with Jierun. There are two agreements. The first agreement is valid from March 3 to December 31, 2008. The two parties agreed that when the international crude oil futures price is above 62 US dollars/barrel and below 63.5 US dollars/barrel, Shennan Electric will receive a monthly income of Jierun (oil floating price - 62 US dollars/barrel) × 200,000 barrels; If the oil price is US$63.5/barrel, Jierun needs to pay US$300,000 per month to Shenzhen Nanjing Electric; if the oil price is lower than US$62/barrel, Shennan Electric needs to pay Jierun (US$62 - floating price)/barrel × 400,000 bucket. The second agreement stipulates that it will last for 22 months starting from January 1 next year, with the red line raised to US$64.5/barrel, and Jierun Company has the right of first choice.

When the agreement was signed, the price of crude oil in the international market was above US$108/barrel, and oil prices were on an upward trend. But oil prices peaked in mid-July and fell below US$62/barrel in late October, and Shenzhen South Electric’s nightmare began. In the first seven months of the agreement, Shennan Electric received Jierun US$300,000 per month, and the total payment was only US$210. After the oil price fell below 62 US dollars, Shennan Electric had to pay US$400,000 for every US$1 drop. Calculated based on the closing price of crude oil price of US$44.60 in December 2008, the difference was US$17.40 barrels × 400,000 barrels. In December alone, Shennan Electric Power Co., Ltd. Electricity will have to pay Jierun US$6.96 million! When the oil price rose to US$145.78 in July, the oil price was higher than the red line of US$83.78, but Shenzhen Southern Power's income was pegged at US$300,000.

The income in 7 months is less than 1/3 of the loss in one month, and the income and risk are not equal! If the second agreement is implemented, Shennan Electric will fall into an abyss of eternal destruction!