Sino-Australian trade problems have aggravated the market's concerns about Australia's iron ore supply. Due to strong domestic demand and the recovery of international steel industry production, iron ore prices have risen sharply. However, with the financial attributes of iron ore becoming stronger and stronger, factors such as staged excessive speculation usually lead to a big difference between the price and the supply and demand fundamentals of the spot market, which increases the price risk. Due to the suspension of the thermal coal index, it is easier to stimulate the commodity scarcity psychology of the market and the information is opaque.
Under the rising channel, the accumulation and looting of companies are likely to happen, and may become more and more fierce. From the institutional point of view, the continuous introduction of regulatory measures can not stop this bull market. More and more people believe that there is still a lot of room for iron ore to rise in the future. In the first quarter of next year, the market is optimistic about the iron ore and steel markets. After this year's boom, the government's stimulus policies and internal and external economic conditions have improved and recovered. Iron ore may rise, but it will not fall, and there will be no obvious price trend in the short term.
Due to the continuous impact of epidemic and dam break, the production and sales of Vale will drop sharply. In the first quarter, affected by the hurricane, the production and sales of the three major mines in Australia fluctuated slightly, and then quickly recovered to stability. At present, the capital expenditure of the four major mines is at a low level, and most of the new iron ore projects are used to replace the old mines with poor resources. It is expected that the growth rate of iron ore production will slow down in the future. Looking forward to 20021,the supply increment of this industry is limited.