The long-term investment value of the real estate industry will not change until the trend of RMB appreciation and rapid macroeconomic growth has not changed. Real estate relies on the two-wheel drive of high growth and integration of the industry, and leading companies will have extraordinary growth. With the implementation of the new accounting standards in the future, real estate stocks, real estate stocks and commercial real estate stocks all have opportunities for value discovery and asset revaluation. We believe that due to the accelerated appreciation of RMB and the support of performance, real estate stocks have been widely speculated, and the new accounting standards will be implemented in early 2007. Real estate enterprises, parks and real estate leasing enterprises will be priced at fair prices. The market price of these enterprises' real estate is much higher than the cost price, which will greatly enhance and thicken the profits of such enterprises.

In 2007, banking stocks continued to become a hot spot mainly based on the following aspects: First, the overall performance of listed banks is relatively good, and they are important representatives of blue-chip stocks in the market. Second, with the introduction of stock index futures, heavyweights will be strategically concerned by institutional investors, including China Industrial and Commercial Bank (5.45, -0.40, -6.84%) (60 1398) and China Bank (5.43, 0.49, 9.92%) (60/kloc-0). Third, the long-term expectation of RMB appreciation makes financial stocks expected to become the long-term strategic focus of funds. It is predicted that in recent years, with the strong macroeconomic growth, the RMB will still have a strong appreciation trend. Fourth, the reform of the financial industry will bring greater opportunities to banking stocks.

Communications no.2

Thanks to the downward adjustment of domestic jet fuel prices and the continuous appreciation of RMB, the aviation industry will continue to maintain a high-speed growth momentum. With the steady growth of the civil aviation industry and the further deepening of the "open sky" policy, there is still great room for development of the airport industry in the future; In 2006, the international dry bulk freight rate rebounded sharply, and the performance of tanker and container freight rate was sluggish. It is predicted that the dry bulk market will remain high in the future, the tanker market will be relatively stable, and the container market will continue to decline. During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, the port throughput capacity will continue to be released, and the competition between ports will become increasingly fierce. The relationship between supply and demand of the whole port industry will be completely changed, the rapid growth of the port industry will no longer exist, and the industry will maintain a relatively stable development trend; During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, China's railway fixed assets investment will increase substantially, and the railway operating mileage, double track and electrification rate will increase substantially, laying a foundation for the development of railway transportation. The highway industry, which has maintained steady growth, is expected to turn around in 2007.

Aviation industry is the third

According to the stock market experience of Japan, China, Taiwan Province and other countries and regions in history, airlines are also one of the main beneficiaries under the background of currency appreciation. The reasons come from two aspects: first, aircraft and aviation materials are basically imported, and the company has huge debts, which are mainly denominated in US dollars. The sustained and long-term appreciation of RMB will make the cost of aircraft import and the foreign debt burden decrease continuously; On the other hand, China's dependence on oil imports is increasing, and the appreciation of RMB helps to reduce fuel costs. In the third quarter of 2006, China International Airlines (5. 15, 0.47,10.04%) and China Southern Airlines (4.09, 0.37, 9.95%). In the third quarter, the average load factors of these two companies were 865,438+0% and 75% respectively. Since the fuel surcharge policy was gradually implemented in airlines, since August 2006, the comprehensive fare index of domestic routes and the fare index of international routes have obviously exceeded the same period of last year. It must be pointed out that in addition to the policy support of fuel surcharge, with the slowdown of the world economy and the increase of oil production capacity in 2007, it is expected that the oil price will continue to decline moderately in 2007, and the fuel cost of airlines will be significantly reduced. Therefore, under the general trend of improving business indicators, policy support, falling oil prices and RMB appreciation, the operating costs and financial burdens of airlines will continue to improve, so it is expected that the stock performance of this industry will exceed the index in 2007.

Paper no.4

The paper industry is one of the beneficiaries of RMB appreciation, which is mainly due to the lack of forestry resources in China, especially the heavy dependence on imports of wood pulp. The appreciation of local currency will reduce the company's raw material cost and improve its performance. In 2005, China consumed 52 million tons of pulp and imported 7.59 million tons. In particular, high-quality wood pulp relies heavily on foreign raw materials, and 40% of the world's waste paper is imported to China. Although China vigorously develops straw pulp and bamboo pulp, the lack of high-quality wood pulp is a serious injury, and it is inevitable that China will rely on foreign raw materials for a long time. In mid-2004, the international wood price index dropped from 450 points to 250 points at present, so the corresponding decline in wood pulp price promoted the performance growth of paper companies. At present, the price of softwood pulp is 6400 yuan/ton, and the price of broadleaf pulp is 5400 yuan/ton, which is lower than the highs of 6900 yuan/ton and 5800 yuan/ton in August. In the first nine months of 2006, the accumulated income of the paper industry increased by 24. 1%, and the total accumulated profit increased by 36.2%. We judged that the profitability improved in the fourth quarter of 2006.

Nonferrous metal no.5

After hundreds of years of large-scale exploitation of global non-ferrous metal resources, the scarcity of resources is becoming increasingly obvious, and the long-term trend of metal prices is upward. In 2007, the prices of major nonferrous metals will continue to run at a high level, and it is unlikely that they will continue to plummet, but there will be differentiation among varieties. Nickel, zinc and lead will continue to challenge the high point in 2006, while copper, aluminum and tin will fall slightly in different degrees, and the price of tungsten will remain high.

Since the non-ferrous metal plate has risen sharply in 2006, and if the global economic growth is lower than expected, the supply and demand of non-ferrous metals may reverse, resulting in a sharp drop in prices, so there are some differences on this plate at present. However, we insist that this bull market cycle will far exceed everyone's expectations. The extremely low stocks of metals such as lead, zinc and nickel and the remaining supply gap in 2007 indicate that prices will continue to rise. Although the inventory of individual metals such as copper is rising in the short term, the tight supply situation is expected to slow down in the future, but any supply-side accident will prompt the price to rebound in the case of low inventory. Based on the above analysis, we believe that there are still good investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metal sector in the first half of 2007.

6 Hao machinery

Under the guidance of the national policy of emphasizing independent innovation and sustainable development, the downstream industries of machinery industry tend to achieve greater development through structural adjustment in the future, and correspondingly put forward higher "quality" requirements for equipment manufacturing industry. Based on the comprehensive evaluation of iron ore price and steel demand, we believe that the overall steel price will remain stable in 2007, which will be beneficial to the development of downstream machinery industry. With the promotion of macro-control, it is predicted that the growth rate of fixed assets investment will slow down to about 20% in 2007, the machinery industry will gradually fall back from the overheated field to the hot field, and the development of various sub-sectors will show a trend of differentiation. Based on the evaluation of the market growth potential and the development space of original integrated technology, we predict that in 2007, the three sub-industries of construction machinery, textile machinery and agricultural machinery will show a steady growth trend, and the three sub-industries of machine tools, heavy machinery and instruments will maintain a high growth rate; Aviation equipment, shipbuilding, railway transportation equipment and other three sub-industries will show a high-speed growth trend, while the environmental protection equipment manufacturing industry will show an explosive growth trend during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period.

Agriculture 7

With the deepening of new rural construction, the improvement of urbanization level and the increase of farmers' income, agriculture will become one of the biggest beneficiaries. The core of agriculture is planting and breeding in the middle reaches, which is used for supporting and serving the core sub-industries, including seed (seedling) planting, chemical fertilizers and pesticides, feed, veterinary drugs and vaccines. Extending downward is the sub-industry of agricultural product processing. Limited by domestic agricultural resources, the investment opportunities of planting and aquaculture lie in the sharp fluctuation of prices, especially the leading enterprises located in the advantageous agricultural products areas; The investment opportunity of feed industry lies in industrial integration; Seed industry benefits from rising prices of agricultural products; The vaccine industry benefits from frequent outbreaks; The construction and improvement of rural market circulation system will bring great development opportunities for agricultural products wholesale markets and agricultural chain supermarkets.

Communication no 8

With the prospect of 3G investment gradually becoming clear, the fixed assets investment of China Telecom will surely reach a new peak in 2007, and the prosperity of the overall communication industry will also enter an accelerated stage. In 2007, the investment in communication industry will be repeatedly excavated and deepened around 3G, and the sub-sector of communication equipment will become the first and biggest beneficiary in 3G value chain. From the long-term trend, with the formation and extension of 3G value chain, the rules of the game will change, and the competition of individual enterprises will gradually give way to the collaborative competition of value chain, but this evolution needs a long process. In the short term, enterprises with the following characteristics will achieve faster growth: (1) Market growth is exogenous and explosive; (2) The core business has a leading market share and guaranteed profitability; (3) Strong anti-cyclical and anti-competitive ability; (4) High-level strategic thinking is clear.

In 2007, the risk factors faced by the communication industry mainly focused on the uncertainty of 3G license issuance time, the uncertainty of government's technical support for TD, and the uncertainty of national macro-control affecting the investment scale of telecom fixed assets. We suggest that we should deeply evaluate the exogenous growth opportunities brought by 3G to the communication industry, pay special attention to the evolution track and market prospect of China's TD industrial chain with independent intellectual property rights, and look for domestic listed companies that have the potential to grow into global communication giants and hold them strategically for a long time.

Automobile No.9

Since 2006, the sales volume, income, profit and other indicators of the automobile industry tend to change in the same direction, which has changed the unfavorable situation of sales growth and profit decline in the previous period, in which automobiles are the main driving force for industry growth. Under the background that the price system tends to be stable, the market demand keeps growing rapidly, and the industry income level will keep growing synchronously with the sales volume. It is predicted that in 2007, the income and profit of the automobile industry will keep increasing synchronously, with the growth rate of about 20%, especially the growth of the car industry is worth looking forward to. The investment opportunities of auto stocks in 2007 are: strong market demand drives performance growth, and the opportunities of auto stocks are greater than those of commercial vehicles; Leading companies with core competitiveness will achieve faster development; The international transfer trend of automobile industry is obvious, and China automobile industry is facing certain development opportunities; Asset injection and overall listing bring great-leap-forward development opportunities to related companies.

Steel grade 10

Nippon Steel of Japan rose seven times in four years in 1980s, which showed us the bright future of domestic steel enterprises. The surge in Asia-Pacific steel stocks has also stimulated the enthusiasm of domestic investors. The steel industry has a turning point in performance, and this performance growth can be sustained because of a new variable: the growth of foreign steel exports. The appreciation of RMB, the increase of foreign capital and the improvement of the competitiveness of domestic steel enterprises have injected new impetus into the growth of China steel enterprises.

As the region with the least profit per ton of steel in the world, China's profit growth prospect is worth looking forward to. At present, the domestic steel price is lower than the international market price of 100 USD/ton. If the price rises by 100 yuan, the industry profit will increase by 40%. Baoshan iron & steel (8.66, 0.50, 6. 13%) (6000 19), the largest leading steel enterprise in China, achieved a pre-increase of 50% in the third quarter, and the bright quarterly and annual reports of major steel enterprises will strengthen investors' confidence. The increase in steel profits will continuously enhance the value of steel companies.

Domestic iron and steel mergers and acquisitions will be the main investment line in the next few years, and the overall listing is only the prelude to the reorganization of China's iron and steel industry. Cross-enterprise mergers and acquisitions will continuously enhance the intrinsic value of the company. At present, the valuation of domestic steel stocks is only 6-8 times, and the price-to-book ratio is only 1 times, and some companies are even lower than 1 times. If the valuation of domestic steel stocks reaches the international average level, the prices of many companies will double, and the industry will have at least 50% room for growth on average. Considering the growth of China's steel industry, the valuation of China's steel stocks has more room to rise.